West Prepares for Negotiations with Iran

• “The Obama administration is going into these talks with much more leverage than it’s had in a while,” said Gary Sick, who advised three U.S. presidents on national security. “The threat of enhanced sanctions, combined with some pragmatic offer to allow Iran to continue with limited enrichment, could lead to a deal.”
• “They’ve been caught with their nuclear pants down,” Sick said. “They will come to Geneva red-faced, but not apologetic.”
• Javier Solana, the European Union’s foreign policy chief and a liaison to Iran, said more than one meeting will likely be necessary to reach agreement. “The goal is engagement, to seek assurances that Iran’s nuclear program has peaceful intentions.” 

 In Dispute With Iran, Path to Iraq Is In Spotlight - New York Times [link]

• But while the similarities between 2002, when the faulty intelligence estimates were produced, and 2009 are unmistakable, the differences are profound.
• This time, by all accounts, there is no White House-led march toward war. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has said that military action would merely delay Iranian nuclear weapons for one to three years, and there is no evidence that President Obama wants to add a third war to his responsibilities.
• “Some people are saying time’s running out and we have to act by the end of the year,” said GregThielmann, now a senior fellow at the Arms Control Association. “I’ve been arguing that we have years, not months. The facts argue for a calmer approach.”
  

Lifting Iran's Nuclear Veil - Gary Milhollin and Valerie Lincy in the New York Times [link]

• When talks begin in Geneva tomorrow, there should be little concern with the formerly dominant question of suspending enrichment at Natanz. Rather, Iran must be made to produce a complete map of its nuclear sites, together with a history of how each was created and provisioned.
• This means getting access to scientists, records, equipment and sites. It is a lot to ask, and we may not have the leverage to get it. But anything less will provide no protection against what we now know is Iran’s determination to build the bomb.

North Korea Should Seize 'Tremendous' Opportunity - AFP [link]

• A top US envoy [Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg] urged North Korea Wednesday to seize a "tremendous opportunity" and return to nuclear disarmament talks, but Pyongyang vowed to keep its atomic weapons to counter what it called a US threat.
• Steinberg reiterated Washington's stance that it is willing to hold direct talks with Pyongyang but only to bring it back to the six-nation forum.
• The North said late Wednesday it must keep its nuclear deterrent to safeguard regional peace and national interests, in the face of what it termed US nuclear threats.

A View from the Dark Side

Obama's Iran Talks Will Fail - Washington Times Editorial [link]

• Just as Iran prefers to avoid the issue, the Obama administration has been reluctant to confront the fact that Iran is trying very hard to obtain nuclear weapons.
• A nuclear arsenal would make Tehran a regional hegemon and deter the West from taking any military action. Iran would have the might to confront Israel and impose its will on neighboring states. The Islamic republic is bent on acquiring power.
• The only way to deter Iran's quest for regional dominance should diplomacy fail is the threat of force.