Upending Conventional Wisdom on ICBMs and the Triad

July 20, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Leah Fae Cochran

Redundant responsive capability - Accepted orthodoxy backing the nuclear triad states that ICBMs are more responsive than ballistic missile submarines. Turns out, that isn’t exactly true. Jeffrey Lewis at Arms Control Wonk notes that when GAO looked at the issue, they found SLBMs to be almost as responsive.

--From the GAO report: “Contrary to conventional wisdom, SSBN are in essentially constant communication with national command authorities and, depending on the scenario, SLBM from SSBNs would be almost as prompt as ICBMs in hitting enemy targets.”

--”That’s bad news for the ICBM force,” notes Lewis. The only unique aspects that remain for the ICBM are, essentially, prompt response to a Russian bolt from the blue and the Senate ICBM Caucus. http://bit.ly/SLsb1c

Rep. Norm Dicks - The House yesterday approved an amendment from Rep. Turner (R-OH) that would block nuclear weapons reductions. Standing in opposition to the amendment, Rep. Norm Dicks (D-WA) said, “the Cold War is over, and we are in a position today where we must reduce the size of our nuclear weapons force.”

--”You don't need thousands of these weapons. A couple hundred, frankly, could take out Iran and almost any country you can imagine. So, again, we can't afford to do everything. We are in an era where we're dealing with terrorists, and we need to have special forces that can be utilized. We need to have these very effective drones. We need to look at the threats that are out there today and equip our military accordingly,” said Rep. Dicks.

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Less is safer - When considering cuts to the nuclear stockpile, The Salt Lake Tribune editorial page argues that the President “should be bold and go for the lower numbers.” The lower numbers, 300-400 warheads, would be in line with estimates that 300 weapons would be enough to maintain deterrence.

--”This may seem counterintuitive. If 300 weapons makes you safe, wouldn’t 400 or 1,000 or 1,500 make you safer? No, because nuclear warheads have little practical military value except as a deterrent, particularly if your enemy also has them.” Full editorial here. http://bit.ly/NND0jx

Tweet - @Cirincione: NYT reports Obama delays nuclear reductions to avoid Romney attacks. http://nyti.ms/NDbgx0

Markey amendments - Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA) submitted three amendments to the Defense Appropriations Bill that would cut spending on nuclear weapons and missile defense systems. The proposals would have, respectively, restricted the U.S. to maintaining 300 ICBMs, eliminated $75 million in extra funding for the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system, and eliminated $291 million in funding for designing the new bomber. The first two amendments were defeated (136-283 and 150-268), while the third was not considered. http://bit.ly/NNICdJ

Saber-rattling- War with Iran could very well happen, even if leaders in Washington and Tehran don’t want it, warns Paul Pillar in The National Interest. A recent poll of experts pegs the probability of a war at 36 percent.

--”The danger of a war needs to be taken seriously. That means using those sanctions we have piled on Iran as leverage, which is not how we have used them so far, to make possible a nuclear agreement with Tehran. It means emphasizing communications and procedures in the Persian Gulf that will minimize the chance of an escalation-prone incident, rather than merely bringing in more sabers and rattling them more loudly. And it means distancing and dissociating the United States as much as possible from destructive and destabilizing actions by Israel,” writes Pillar. http://bit.ly/PilLTA

Pledge - Taiwan agreed to forgo the right to produce nuclear fuel in a renewal of a nuclear cooperation agreement with the United States. The pledge, similar to an agreement made with the United Arab Emirates in 2009, is expected to become the new “gold standard” of nonproliferation. Global Security Newswire has the story.http://bit.ly/MLYtns

House says no sharing - Last night the House approved an amendment to the Defense Appropriations Bill that would prohibit the U.S. from sharing classified missile defense information with Russia. Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville) sponsored the amendment. Full story at The Hill. http://bit.ly/QgCI5N

Poll - A recent public opinion poll in Israel suggests that most Israelis would not support a unilateral attack on Iran, even if negotiations break down.

--The findings: 19 percent said that Israel should not strike Iran independently, 26 percent thought that military action should be taken only with U.S. backing, 29 percent said that Israel should not strike Iran at all. Reuters has the story.http://reut.rs/NZbn1J

Daaavy, Daaavy Crockett... - The smallest nuclear weapon the U.S. produced, dubbed the Davy Crockett, was just 51 pounds and could be carried in a “port-a-pack” on a man’s back. The Davy still packed as much explosive yield as 20 tons of TNT, or 780X what a conventional weapon of the same size would yield. Alex Wellerstein at Restricted Data has plenty of pictures and instructions for unloading the port-a-pack. http://bit.ly/OejFEO