Talks Begin With Iran About Nuclear Program in Istanbul

Today's top nuclear policy stories, with excerpts in bullet form.

Stories we're following today: Friday January 21, 2011.

Iran and 6 Powers Begin Nuke Talks - The Associated Press

• Iran and six world powers sought common ground Friday at talks jeopardized by Tehran's refusal to discuss demands for curbs on nuclear activities that could enable it manufacture the fissile core of nuclear warheads.
• As the two sides broke for lunch, with the Iranians dining separately, there was no sign of movement from either side from widely differing positions revealed after a first round of talks in Geneva last month.
• While the six would like to kickstart talks focused at freezing Iran's uranium enrichment program, Tehran has repeatedly said this activity is not up for discussion. Instead, Iranian officials are pushing an agenda that covers just about everything except its nuclear program: global disarmament, Israel's suspected nuclear arsenal, and Tehran's concerns about U.S. military bases in Iraq and elsewhere in the region.
• "We want to discuss the fundamental problems of global politics at Istanbul talks," said Iranian chief negotiator Saeed Jalili, while President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad suggested any push to restrict the meeting to Iran's nuclear program would fail.
• One development to watch for, he said, would be readiness by Iranian chief negotiator Saeed Jalili to meet U.S. counterpart William Burns in a bilateral meeting. While the Iranians met several delegations at the Geneva talks, they refused a U.S. overture to sit down one-on-one in the Swiss city.

International Iran Nuclear Talks Resume in Turkey, as U.S. Hand Appears Strengthened - Laura Rozen for Politico [link]

• American officials have arrived in Turkey for the next round of international Iran nuclear talks, which are set to get underway in Istanbul Friday and go through Saturday. Western diplomats, while trying to keep expectations low, have been slightly more upbeat about this round of talks than they were for the last ones held in Geneva last month, whose main achievement was agreement between world powers and Iran to meet again.
• Western diplomats may be more confident going into this round of talks because several countries are said to be prepared to move ahead swiftly with additional sanctions should Tehran prove unresponsive to international demands for more transparency on its nuclear program.
• The new round of talks also comes amid several recent assessments that Iran’s nuclear program has suffered serious setbacks and that there is therefore more time to try to curb Iran’s program through the current strategy of negotiations and sanctions. Outgoing Israeli intelligence chief Meir Dagan told Israel’s Knesset this month that Iran would not have a nuclear bomb before 2015. Meantime, the New York Times reported this week that a clandestine Israeli operation had contributed to the Stuxnet worm damaging the centrifuges at Iran’s Natanz enrichment facility.
• "Only reinvigorated diplomacy holds the promise of bridging the many divides between the U.S. and Iran and achieving a sustainable solution that prevents a disastrous military confrontation, prevents an Iranian bomb and the additional proliferation that would follow, and protects the human rights of the Iranian people," said the statement, issued Thursday by the National Iranian American Council and signed by former top State Department Iran official John Limbert, former White House Iran hand Gary Sick, former senior CIA analyst Paul Pillar, former IAEA deputy director general Bruno Pellaud, Iran expert Trita Parsi, former British ambassador to Iran Roger Dalton, etc.

From Reykjavik to New START: Science Diplomacy for Nuclear Security in the 21st Century - Remarks made by Assistant Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller [link]

• Just this past week, I hosted a conference, the purpose of which was to continue thinking about the verification and monitoring challenges we will face as we work toward a world free of nuclear weapons...We must always be thinking about ways to improve our capacity in these areas, building on the work of the past as we take advantage of new and emerging technologies.
• New START is the most significant nuclear arms control agreement in nearly two decades. It provides for limits on the number of strategic nuclear weapons and launchers that the United States and Russia can deploy, while maintaining the effectiveness of the U.S. nuclear deterrent...We are preparing for entry into force of New START, including for the exchange of Treaty-required notifications that begins immediately upon entry into force and the initial exchange of data on missiles, launchers, heavy bombers and warheads subject to the Treaty, which is required 45 days after entry into force.
• During the ratification process, the Senate made clear its strong interest in addressing the disparity in tactical nuclear weapons between the United States and Russia. The Resolution of Advice and Consent calls for the United States to seek to initiate negotiations with Russia on non-strategic nuclear weapons within a year of entry into force of the Treaty...Work is underway, and is intensifying, to prepare for dialogue with Russia on non-strategic nuclear weapons.
• As I mentioned earlier, another major step forward was taken in our relationship with Russia last week when Ambassador Beyrle and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov exchanged diplomatic notes to bring the so-called “123 Agreement” into force...The 123 Agreement will create the conditions for improved cooperation on joint technology development to support arms control and nonproliferation activities. It will also provide the necessary legal framework for joint efforts to convert research reactors from highly-enriched uranium to low enriched uranium fuel.
• The United States is deeply disappointed over the Conference on Disarmament’s failure to begin negotiations on an FMCT. The next session of the CD begins next week and I plan to be in Geneva to join our Representative, Ambassador Laura Kennedy, in working with the incoming President of the Conference on Disarmament, Canadian CD Ambassador Grinius and other interested states on ways to move the FMCT agenda forward.
• Also at the NPT Review Conference, Secretary Clinton reaffirmed the U.S. Commitment to ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty – CTBT. The entry into force of the CTBT remains an important element of the President’s strategy to strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime and create the conditions for a nuclear free world.

Chinese Transparency Needed on Nuclear Arms - Nikita Perfilyev for The Hill [link]

• On January 9, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates traveled to China to revitalize dialogue on military-to-military relations. This week, President Hu of China visits Washington and those discussions continue. On the agenda should be measures to increase the transparency of China’s nuclear arsenal.  With the New START treaty ratified by the Senate and pending ratification in the Russian Duma, increased openness from China will be critical to gradually expanding the disarmament process. And while the larger process of disarmament would benefit from increased Chinese transparency, there is little doubt that China would gain as well.
• Although challenges in U.S. - Russian relations persist, the New START agreement was signed more by partners than enemies and it extended a policy of openness regarding one another’s nuclear programs. The same should be true for China, which no less than others, is interested in stability in order to secure economic growth. More predictability would enhance China’s security, not diminish it.
• In recent years, the major nuclear weapons states have all become more open regarding their arsenals...China, however, has never disclosed the size of its arsenal. When it comes to describing the Chinese nuclear arsenal the most widely used phrase is “it is believed.” China is believed to have stopped production of weapons-grade fissile material in the early 1990s, but it keeps this option open. As far as weapons are concerned, China is believed to have approximately 200 deployed nuclear warheads with about 40 in storage.
• Instead of feeding a vicious circle of mistrust regarding motives and intentions, China has an opportunity to demonstrate its commitment to nuclear disarmament, quiet skeptics and neutralize those who try to play a “China threat” card. The greatest beneficiary of such a change in policy would be China itself, who would enjoy the benefits of both enhanced stability and increased security.

NNSA Announces Completion of First B83 Dismantlement at Y-12 - NNSA Press Release [link]

• The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) today announced that its Y-12 National Security Complex has completed the dismantlement of the first secondary from a retired B83, one of the biggest weapon systems ever built.
• “Dismantlement of the first B83 secondary is an important demonstration of our nation’s commitment to reducing the size of the nation’s nuclear stockpile in support of our arms reduction treaty commitments and our nuclear nonproliferation objectives,” said Don Cook, Deputy Administrator for Defense Programs. “I applaud the men and women at Y-12 and across the enterprise who have worked so hard to ensure the highest standards of safety as we continue to find ways to implement our program.”
• Y-12 has been working aggressively to prepare for B83 dismantlements for the past several years. Significant upgrades were made to key facilities, equipment, and tooling and new dismantlement personnel were hired and trained to support this program.
• Dismantlement not only prevents the potential misuse of nuclear material but also allows recycling of the material for national defense uses such as weapon refurbishment (the Life Extension Program) and fuel for the U.S. Navy’s nuclear-powered fleet. Some of the highly enriched uranium is also down blended to a less concentrated form for use in commercial nuclear reactors.

 Note:  If exploded at it's maximum yeild the B83 would have 80 times the explosive power of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima.