Sensible Delay on Los Alamos Facility

On the radar: CMRR delay makes sense; UPF tea leaves; Bolton and Markey cooperate; Feinstein on Iran; Davutoglu says Iran ready to deal; Russian sub fire; Pending Iran announcement; IAEA report expected soon; and #Rumors of Kim’s demise.

February 13, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Pause on the Pit Plant - Los Alamos’ proposed plutonium lab (CMRR) is expected to be delayed. Analysts at the Union of Concerned Scientists say that is a good thing.

--Key point: The only plausible need to increase plutonium pit production to capacities above the current level is if LEPs on the W78 and W88 warheads use new pits. The pit decision has not been made. If it were, the necessary pit production levels could be accomplished without building CMRR. http://owl.li/92uvF

--Read the working paper by Lisbeth Gronlund and Stephen Young: “The CMRR-Nuclear Facility: Why a Delay Makes Sense.” (pdf) http://owl.li/92tdf

UPF budget - The fortunes of the proposed Uranium Processing Facility (UPF) at Oak Ridge are also unclear ahead of the release of the President’s budget. Frank Munger has the story, with background about the status and uncertain future for the UPF. http://owl.li/92s36

Bolton & Markey on nuclear trade deals - The administration’s move to approve civilian nuclear agreements on a case-by-case basis undermines nonproliferation efforts, AEI’s John Bolton and Rep. Ed Markey write in the CS Monitor. The authors argue for increased congressional oversight - giving Congress more power to reject nuclear cooperation agreements that don’t include “gold standard” commitments. http://owl.li/92oqC

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Tweet - @DangerRoom: “Missile defense still a cash-blaster: $13.3 billion in new Pentagon budget, down from $14.74 billion...”

Feinstein on Iran diplomacy - “As calls for a military solution to deal with Iran’s nuclear program increase, William H. Luers and Thomas R. Pickering make a compelling case that a better option remains on the table: diplomacy,” writes Sen. Dianne Feinstein in a letter to The New York Times.

--Steps the Senator proposes: Iran need to allow IAEA inspectors full access to its nuclear facilities, and the U.S. needs to communicate its seriousness about a deal to the supreme leader. http://owl.li/92otJ

Turkey: Iran ready to talk - Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu says Iran is ready to negotiate a deal on its nuclear program. Davutoglu, speaking at a think tank event, emphasized that a military strike would be a “disaster” and said that a diplomatic deal could be reached quickly if the two sides overcome mutual distrust. Joby Warrick and Karen DeYoung for The Washington Post. http://owl.li/92ovH

Fire on board - Missiles loaded with nuclear warheads were on board a Russian submarine on which a fire ignited in December. The fire risked causing the detonation of torpedoes, which could have lead to large-scale dispersal of radioactive substances if the sub’s reactors or missiles exploded. Global Security Newswire has the story. http://owl.li/92oEf

Tehran teaser - Ahmadinejad on Saturday announced that Iran will soon make an announcement that Iran has done something of significance with its nuclear program. Speculation is that it involves operations at the Fordo enrichment facility. http://owl.li/92rX0

New Iran report forthcoming - An IAEA report to be released next month is expected to reveal more details on Iran’s nuclear efforts, possibly including developing a nuclear warhead for a ground-to-ground missile. Haaretz reports. http://owl.li/92oxq

Distrust and nuclear diplomacy - “Iran and the West both consider themselves on the threshold of a victory in the marathon race against each other. Their misevaluations of each other's determination have trapped them in an increasing cycle of distrust, tension, and military buildup,” writes Kayhan Barzegar in Foreign Affairs.

-For a diplomatic solution to work, it will need to balance Iran’s NPT rights and the prohibition of diversion towards weaponization, argues Barzegar. “The main issue for Iran is trusting the West not to demand an end to its native nuclear program. By taking that off the table, the West could show its seriousness about the nuclear talks.” http://owl.li/92rZp

#assassination #rumors - Last Friday, the internet was abuzz with a rumor that Kim Jong Un was assassinated in Beijing. The rumor began on Weibo, a Chinese twitter-like service, spread to actual twitter, and then caught enough traction to be posted on Forbes, MSNBC, and Huffington Post. Real journalists, citing U.S. officials, have since laid the false rumor to rest. Foreign Policy sums up how the rumor spread. http://owl.li/92ozo