Policy Successes: Increased Leverage Over an Isolated Iran

On the radar: Strong sanctions, stronger coalitions; CMRR show not over until authorizers sing; North Korea launch pad construction halted; Reflections on Cuban Missile Crisis; HEU removed from Poland; and New polling on overkill.

September 26, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

Tweet - @NuclearSecurity: Can't make it to our CTBT event with U/S Rose @Gottemoeller at 12:30 today? Watch live on C-SPAN: http://cs.pn/SlIDq3

Leverage - “The U.S.-led sanctions regime against the Islamic Republic, along with deft U.S. handling of the Arab uprisings, has put Iran's leaders into a corner,” writes Alireza Nader at Foreign Policy.

--”The Iranian regime has not made any major concessions on the nuclear program -- yet. But the regime's power and influence, and its ability to challenge U.S. interests in the region, have been deeply degraded by U.S. policies. Iran's continued progress on the nuclear program cannot make up for lost influence.”

--”There is, however, one surefire way to reverse all this progress,” notes Nader, “An Israeli military attack against Iran would set U.S. diplomatic accomplishments back to square one.” Read the full piece here. http://bit.ly/UVj8g6

Tweet - @TParsi: Brazilian press reporting that Turkey, Brazil & Sweden will renew efforts to revive Iran diplomacy. Ideas discussed during FM lunch at UNGA.

Things we did not watch - Ahmadinejad at UNGA.

Welcome to Early Warning - Subscribe to our morning email or follow us on twitter.

--Have a tip? Email earlywarning@ploughshares.org. Want to support this work? Click here.

CMRR in limbo - The last coffin nail has not been fully hammered in for the CMRR, it seems. The White House, NNSA, congressional appropriators and, increasingly, Pentagon and nuclear lab leadership all support the 5-year delay to the CMRR plutonium facility. However, as the recent six-month Continuing Resolution did not expressly prohibit funding the CMRR, it leaves room for the facility’s advocates in the authorization committees to shuffle money toward CMRR.

--Reading the writings on the wall, NNSA is disbanding its CMRR design team and trying to spend remaining FY12 CMRR funds on an alternative plutonium strategy. Stephen Young at All Things Nuclear has the story, including a new letter from Sen. Levin outlining the Chairman’s position. http://bit.ly/PnXQUe

N. Korea launch pad halted - North Korea has stopped work at a new missile launch pad, according to recent satellite imagery. The reason for the construction halt is uncertain, but could be explained by heavy rains. “Whatever the reason, the slowdown, barring concerted North Korean efforts to make up for lost time, could result in a 1-2 year slip in the planned completion date of the new complex, which was originally estimated to be around the middle of this decade,” notes analyst Nick Hansen at 38 North. http://bit.ly/PFMpIL

Report - “Reflections on the Cuban Missile Crisis in the Context of Strategic Stability.” Andrei Kokoshin, member of the Russian Academy of Sciences and sixth secretary of the Russian Security Council, looks at lessons that can be drawn for stability and crisis management. Belfer Center Discussion Paper. (pdf) http://bit.ly/Po33vc

Russia’s nuclear commands - Russia’s Defense Ministry has set aside plans to combine its nuclear forces under a unified command structure. Each branch - The Strategic Missile Forces, Air Force and Navy - will continue managing their respective components of Russia’s triad, reports Ria Novosti. http://bit.ly/RYeDlL

GTRI in Poland - NNSA, in partnership with the governments of Poland and Russia, successfully converted the Maria Research Reactor in Poland. The conversion from HEU to LEU fuel allowed for the return of 27 kg of fresh HEU fuel and 61.9 kg of spent HEU fuel to Russia. The effort was done through NNSA’s Global Threat Reduction Initiative.

--From the NNSA press release: “With the completion of this operation, GTRI has now removed and/or eliminated more than 3,450 kilograms of HEU and plutonium (enough material for more than 135 nuclear weapons).” http://1.usa.gov/QF6Q7D

Tweet - @NNSANews: Photos and video from NNSA's recent work at the Maria Research Reactor in Poland - Pics: http://t.co/PR2VaIIV | Video: http://bit.ly/QmbsCz

Overkill - A quarter of all Americans are willing to use nuclear weapons to kill terrorists. No joke,” writes Amy Zegart at Foreign Policy of a recent poll she conducted on intelligence issues. “To be honest, I threw in the nuclear bomb question on a lark, not expecting to find much. Boy, was I wrong.” http://bit.ly/PnOwjo