Next Steps after the IAEA Trip to Iran

Inspectors denied access to Parchin; Diplomacy continues; Sketching out a deal with Iran; Core issues for Seoul; Consequences of a military strike; Dialing back the Iran rhetoric; Why talking to North Korea makes sense; and Davy Crockett your hometown.

February 22, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Disappointing Visit - In their second trip to Iran in the past month, IAEA inspectors again requested access to the Parchin site. Iran again refused. IAEA officials called the visit “disappointing” and said that there is currently no agreement on future discussions. Fredrik Dahl reports for Reuters. http://owl.li/9dNSJ

What’s at Parchin? - Officials suspect officials facilities at Parchin may be used for high-explosive tests related to nuclear weapons development, according to the IISS dossier on Iran. At their last visit to Parchin in 2005, IAEA reported “no relevant dual-use equipment or materials in the location visited.” http://owl.li/9dWfo

Implications - Iran’s refusal to allow inspectors into Parchin is disappointing, but does not mean an end to diplomacy, IISS’ Mark Fitzgerald says. “In dealing with Iran, nothing ever happens quickly. More meetings will be scheduled, and discussions will continue in Tehran about whether to answer more of the IAEA’s questions.” http://owl.li/9dNQu

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Negotiating with Iran - “Sanctions and clandestine efforts will not succeed in stopping Iran's nuclear advance at an acceptable plateau or in undermining the regime—and the two principal alternatives to diplomacy [a military strike or living with a nuclear Iran] promise to be costly and risky,” write Richard Haass and Michael Levi in The Wall Street Journal.

--Haass and Levi argue for pursuing a negotiated settlement in which Iran accepts intrusive inspections in exchange for the West dialing back sanctions. http://owl.li/9dNNZ

Seoul opportunity - “To be truly effective, the participants [at next months Nuclear Security Summit in Seoul] should go beyond the existing legal and institutional structures and try to create new initiatives that focus on specific core issues,” writes Pavel Podvig in The Bulletin. Those core issues: create a system to ensure all countries report their fissile materials stocks to the IAEA, get states to report on the status of physical protection at nuclear facilities, make sure physical protection is adequate to the threat, and establish stronger cooperative ties between summit participants. http://owl.li/9dNIA

Consequences - A unilateral Israeli strike “may result in the worst of both worlds: a future nuclear-armed Iran more determined than ever to challenge the Jewish state, and with far fewer regional and international impediments to do so.” Dalia Dassa Kaye the LA Times on the why attacking Iran would be disastrous. http://owl.li/9dNJU

Echoes of Iraq - Heated rhetoric on Iran in 2012 sounds a lot like Iraq in 2003. There is one key differences: this administration seems “eager to calm the feverish language,” The New York Times’ Scott Shane notes.

Experts say administration opposition may not be enough to forestall an unintended war. “As a student of history, I’m certainly conscious that when you have heated politics and incomplete control of events, it’s possible to stumble into a war,” Graham Allison said. http://owl.li/9dNLW

Event - CSIS hosts “Iran: U.S. Policy Options” with Gen. James Cartwright, Adm. William Fallon, and David Sanger of the NYT. Bob Schieffer moderates.

--Thurs. Feb. 23rd from 5:30-6:30 at CSIS. RSVP here. http://owl.li/9ck0O

Talking to North Korea - “Our problem with North Korea has to the fact that it is a particularly difficult foreign policy challenge for our system of government to work with and to work on,” Ambassador Stephen Bosworth told CNN. “We have a tendency to believe that problems exist to be solved - not to be managed, but solved. And in the case of North Korea, that, in my judgment, requires that we talk to them in a serious fashion.” http://owl.li/9dNBr

Putin: why Russia needs to rebuild its military - “Our country faces the task of sufficiently developing its military potential as part of a deterrence strategy.” Vladimir Putin writes in Foreign Policy “This is an indispensable condition for Russia to feel secure and for our partners to listen to our country's arguments. http://owl.li/9dNGz

Behind the Scenes: The Four Horsemen - Go behind the scenes of New York Timeseditor Phil Taubman’s new book The Partnership: Five Cold Warriors and their Quest to Ban the Bomb in his interview with Ploughshares Fund http://owl.li/9dNE2

Blast Map - A new Google Maps app shows you the blast effects of a nuclear weapon if detonated at the location of your choosing. Pick your own yield or select from apps arsenal. Options run from the Davy Crockett (20t) to the W-88 (475kt) to the Tsar Bomba (50mt).

--Try it yourself: The air blast radius of a “tactical” B-61 mod 4 (45kt) would likely flatten my entire Indiana hometown. http://owl.li/9dNzJ