Negotiating Nuclear Restraint with South Korea

On the radar: Prohibiting enrichment and reprocessing; China’s evolving strategy; China’s ICBMs; Kerry on added sanctions; Nonpro budget woes; Hecker on DPRK; 86ing the B61; and Hard life downstream from Maiak.

April 19, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Dealing with South Korea - South Korea wants to be allowed to enrich uranium and reprocess plutonium as part of a deal to renew its nuclear trade agreement with the United States. “This technology, which is prohibited in the current agreement, would enable South Korea to produce its own nuclear fuel and bring it closer to making nuclear weapons,” says a New York Times editorial. Such a capability would also make it harder for the U.S. to restrain North Korea and complicate relations with Japan.

--”The United States should help South Korea solve its fuel-rod problem. But giving it permission to manufacture its own nuclear fuel would weaken international security.” http://nyti.ms/ZDNCSJ

White papers, paper tigers? - A new Chinese white paper released on Tuesday “omits a promise that China will never use nuclear weapons first... [a] pledge that has been the cornerstone of Beijing’s stated nuclear policy for the last half-century.” This is only one example suggesting a change in Chinese nuclear strategy - a change that may spark serious concern, writes James Acton in The New York Times.

-- While a US-Chinese dialogue on strategic deterrence has been “needed for some time,” this potential change in Beijing’s doctrine has “made the need urgent...The risk of nuclear use is already unacceptably high and, for that reason alone, mutual confidence-building is necessary,” writes Acton. Full article here. http://owl.li/ke2i2

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China on the level - “The size of China’s intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) force appears to be leveling out instead of increasing,” reports Hans Kristensen. China’s arsenal has approximately 50-75 ICBMs, according to recent testimony from Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn.

--That Pentagon estimate has not changed over the past three years, notes Kristensen. Also of note, “of the 50-70 ICBMs reported for the past three years, ‘less than 50 can reach the continental US.” Full post at Strategic Security Blog. http://owl.li/ke52z

Pausing on sanctions - Sec. John Kerry said that new US sanctions on Iran could harm the prospects for a negotiated solution to the nuclear crisis with Iran. “We don't need to spin this up at this point in time...You need to leave us the window to try to work the diplomatic channel,” said Sec. Kerry in testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Paul Richter has the story for The LA Times. http://lat.ms/17LgXlK

Cutting nonpro - The Obama Administration’s budget request would cut more than $300 million from programs intended to stop the spread of nuclear weapons.

--"As recently as two years ago NNSA gave no indications that it was planning to significantly reduce the scope of its work...It's difficult to escape the conclusion that weapons programs are being prioritized over the nuclear and radiological material security and nonproliferation budget," said Kingston Reif. Full report from Chris Schneidmiller of Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/Z58lUI

Nominee - The Senate energy committee approved the nomination of Ernest Moniz to be secretary of Energy in a 21-1 vote, indicating he should have little trouble getting confirmed by the full Senate. The lone dissenting vote came from Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), who used the confirmation hearing to try and pin Moniz down on spending for the bungled MOX plutonium fuel facility in South Carolina. http://nyti.ms/11o5gN5

Iran talks - Iran and the IAEA could resume talks next month. From Reuters. http://reut.rs/1783H9r

Other views - Sen. Corker, who voted for New START, notes that the nuclear budget payouts expected in exchange for treaty support didn’t measure up to expectations. Sen. Inhofe blanket opposes all treaties but wants the cash anyway. They co-author a piece in Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/117mbms

Not there yet - North Korea would need to conduct several additional tests in order to develop a nuclear missile, expert Sig Hecker from Stanford University told a seminar at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation. The North’s nuclear capabilities are “probably still primitive,” according to Hecker, who disagrees with the assessment that Pyongyang has a nuclear missile capability, reports Fredrik Dahl at Reuters. Full story here. http://owl.li/ke0xs

Tweet - @Reuters: China to send North Korea envoy to Washington reut.rs/103HKC3

Tweet - @BloombergNews: North Korea missilie report released by mistake, Clapper says bloom.bg/17tiWYL

Cutting B61 - The costs of the life extension program for the B61 nuclear bomb have hiked from $4 billion to $10 billion in recent years. Given the mounting costs, questionable military utility and known security vulnerabilities, the Project on Government Oversight suggests “it is time for the DoD to cut the purse strings on this out-of-control Cold War program.” New letter to Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel. Posted here. http://bit.ly/13vuRZm

Tweet - @insidedefense: LRSO Analysis Of Alternatives Done, Heading To JROC Next Month. Inside the Air Force. http://t.co/dYTNRzpvLL

Event:

--Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities, hearing on Proliferation Prevention Programs. Madelyn Creedon, Kenneth Myers, and Anne Harrington. April 23, 2:30 p.m. @ 222 Russell Senate Office Building. Webcast here. http://owl.li/kbQOG

Weekend Reading:

Plutopia - The Russian town of Muslumovo is located downstream from the Maiak plutonium plant. During the Cold War, the Maiak plant operators used the nearby Techa River, which villagers use for drinking, cooking and bathing, as storage for high-level radioactive waste. Decades later, residents in Muslumovo still struggle with the health problems, legal battles and other consequences of long-term radioactive contamination.

-- Kate Brown, author of “Plutopia: Nuclear Families, Atomic Cities, and the Great Soviet and American Plutonium Disasters,” has the story for Slate. http://slate.me/ZDQX42