Missed Opportunities: Lessons in Strategic Arms Reductions from 1989

Stories we're following today:

1989: The Lost Year - David Hoffman in Foreign Policy [link]

•  The fall of the wall was a European earthquake, but in Washington and Moscow, miscommunication and suspicion meant the leaders were badly out of sync. While Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev was eager to move on cutting nuclear arsenals, President George H.W. Bush was cautious and uncertain, and a promising moment slipped away.
• After the speech Gorbachev met with President Ronald Reagan and Bush at Governors Island. Reagan, in the twilight hours of his presidency, was ebullient, but he did not discuss Gorbachev's remarkable speech in any detail, and they parted without having realized their goal of reducing the arsenals of long-range nuclear weapons. The hope for a 50 percent cut was bogged down in negotiations.

A World Free of Nuclear Weapons: Illusion or Possibility? - Mohamed ElBaradei Speech at the Council on Foreign Relations [link]

• Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) speaking at the New York office of the Council on Foreign Relations on November 4, discussed ongoing negotiations with Iran on its nuclear program.
• "For the first time at least in my twenty-five years with the agency, I see a genuine desire on both sides [United States and Iran] to seriously engage not only on the nuclear issue but on a broad range of issues." Iran, he said, "could be the door to a stable Middle East."
• Listen to the discussion between ElBaradei and CFR President Richard Haass below, or click here to watch the CFR video:

Bunkers or Breakthrough? - Roger Cohen in the New York Times [link]

• In his last month as head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei finds himself at the explosive crux of the world’s nuclear politics, ferrying messages between the Obama administration and Tehran. “They are talking through me,” he says.
• ElBaradei’s message to Tehran: “This is an opportunity I have not seen before and it will not happen again.” His message to Washington: “Be patient.”
• “I hope Iran will not miss this opportunity and will take a very small risk for peace. Otherwise everybody will lose.” ElBaradei said.

Congressional Caucuses and Arms Control - Nukes of Hazard [link]

• To illuminate the executive-legislative interaction that is already occurring and will intensify as the Obama administration moves to complete bilateral U.S.-Russian reductions of nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles, it helps to identify these conduits of informal power on Capitol Hill.
• While caucus memberships are not the only or even the most effective way a member can influence policy, they do publicly communicate a lawmaker’s principles and priorities. As START follow-on negotiations progress, the aforementioned caucuses are likely to become even more prominent as lawmakers seek to advance their ideological and parochial interests.

India and the CTBT: The Debate in New Dehli - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists [link]

• One notable outcome of the debate so far is the realization that India's approach to the CTBT today will be radically different from its approach in 1996, when New Delhi was unanimously opposed to the treaty (and was not yet a de facto nuclear weapon state).
• This time around, India is divided over the feasibility of joining a test ban when the credibility of its minimum deterrent is still in question and when acceding to the CTBT might mean appearing to abandon its stance on a deadline-linked disarmament process.