Finding Budget Savings from the Nuclear Force

On the radar: “Nuclear force economies”; Subs, budgets and requirements in flux; Missileer malaise; East Coast site evaluations; Upcoming IAEA talks; and Dennis the Menace to return to North Korea.

May 13, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Nuclear cuts at the budget - Sequestration is a highly disruptive and unsustainable way to cut defense budgets. Michael O’Hanlon points this out and suggests that, to contribute to deficit reductions, “It is time to get specific about further defense cuts.”

--O’Hanlon offers a list of potential cuts that could help meet reduction targets. Nuclear portion: ”Rather than design a new submarine to carry ballistic missiles, the Navy might simply refurbish the existing Trident submarine or reopen that production line. That and other nuclear force economies, including the gradual transition of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories away from the nuclear weapons design business, could yield $20 billion in 10-year savings in the national defense budget.” Full article in The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/165Uwcs

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Time to decide - Asked in a budget hearing about the number of Ohio-class nuclear submarines required for the Navy’s nuclear mission, STRATCOM Commander Gen. Robert Kehler responded, “Well, the need that we put on the table was for 12. And it remains to be seen -- the biggest issue right now, from my perspective, is commit to a submarine, a replacement submarine for Ohio...I think you have a lot of time here to decide how many submarines we eventually deploy.”

--Kingston Reif notes that the Navy’s shipbuilding budget would need to nearly double (!) in the coming years to pay for sub procurement and not cut other Navy boats. “‘Only’ building 8 subs could save $18 billion over the next decade alone, and still allow the United States to maintain a devastating sea-based deterrent. And for the Navy, this could relieve some of the pressure the SSBN(X) will put on the rest of its fleet.” Full post at Nukes of Hazard. http://bit.ly/13t2vgl

Missileer malaise - The Air Force’s recent suspension of 17 of its nuclear missile launch officers is indicative of a larger problem - waning morale among those serving the military’s nuclear mission. The missileers, as those entrusted with launching US nuclear weapons are called, see their careers being marginalized by future nuclear reductions. This “does have a corrosive effect on [the Air Force’s] ability to maintain focus on the mission,” said Air Force secretary Michael Donley in a recent hearing.

-- Others disagree with this assessment. "This dead-end career is not the result of shrinking nuclear arsenals, but rather because the Cold War ended decades ago and because so few senior commander jobs exist within the missile specialty...Most crews can't wait to transfer out of missiles into faster-track careers such as space operations, but the Air Force doesn't make it easy," said Bruce Blair, a former missileer and scholar at Princeton. Robert Burns at AP has the story. ttp://owl.li/kYyko

Nuclear negotiations - On Wednesday the IAEA will hold its 10th round of talks with Iran over the country’s nuclear program. Iran’s ambassador to the IAEA has said Iran is “serious in these talks” and expects progress to be made. That said, Tehran and the IAEA remain in disagreement over Parchin military base. The watchdog group wants to inspect the base, Iran continues to deny it access. Fredrik Dahl at Reuters has the story. http://owl.li/kYsc4

Testimony - “Missile Defense: Opportunity to Refocus on and Strengthening Acquisition Management” by Cristina Chaplain, Director of Acquisition and Sourcing Management for the GAO. Written testimony to before the Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/10tI9y4

East coast BMD - The Eastern seaboard is already “well protected” against missile threats by existing interceptors in Alaska, said assistant secretary of defense Madelyn Creedon in testimony last week. Regardless, the Missile Defense Agency is evaluating hundreds of locations for possible missile defense sites on the East Coast - as mandated by last year’s defense authorization bill.

--The selection process will allow the Pentagon to expedite the construction of a new interceptor site “should there be a decision at some point that we do need an East Coast missile defense site.” It does not a guarantee that the site will be built. Diane Barnes of Global Security Newswire has the story. http://owl.li/kYHHB

Tweet - @HuffingtonPost: Kim replaces North Korean defense minister in power consolidation move. huff.to/17kTPM8

Louisiana hospitality - Hans Kristensen last week gave a talk advocating nuclear reductions at Barkesdale Air Force Base before a group of military and civilian officials tasked with the nuclear mission. Kristensen shared his remarks and his experience on the base - including touring a B-52H and flying the simulator. Full post at the Federation of American Scientists’ Strategic Security Blog. http://bit.ly/12uc3Fq

Events:

--"Role of Science Engagement in Reducing WMD Threats." Andrew Weber and four other speakers. May 15, 12:00-1:30pm @ George Washington University, Seventh Floor. Details here. http://owl.li/kYCDY

--"Preventing a Nuclear Iran," Wendy Sherman and David Cohen. House Foreign Affairs Committee. May 15, 1:00pm @ Rayburn House Office Building. Webcast here. http://owl.li/kYD3D

--"Next Steps in Nuclear Arms Control,” Steven Pifer and Ted Seay. May 15 1:30-2:30pm. International Institute for Strategic Studies, London. Details here. http://owl.li/kYEqu

--"Dangerous Paths to Unconventional Nuclear Proliferation." Brian Finlay and Brian Michael Jenkins. May 15, 1:30-3:00pm @ Stimson Center. Details here. http://owl.li/kYEHN

--U.N. Security Council debates additional sanctions on North Korea. May 16, 10:00am. Webcast here. http://webtv.un.org/

--”North Korea’s Nuclear Challenge: From Brinkmanship to Diplomacy?” Joel Wit. May 16, 12:00-1:30 @ Wilson Center, Fifth Floor. Details here. http://owl.li/kYF6C

--"Strengthening ROK-U.S. Strategic Cooperation: Nuclear Governance and the North Korean Problem," Gary Samore and 12 other speakers. May 17, 9:00am-4:00pm. CSIS, B1, Conference Center. Details here. http://owl.li/kYFWU

Dessert:

Amb. Rodman - Dennis Rodman said he intends to travel back to North Korea in August to attempt to get the North to Release Kenneth Bae, a US citizen in North Korea who was sentenced to 15 years hard labor for charges including preaching Christianity and undermining the state. Max Fisher of The Washington Post asks, could Rodman diplomacy actually work?” http://wapo.st/17XoRYa