Einhorn: U.S. Should Prepare Itself for Negotiating Opportunity with Iran

On the radar: Reviewing approaches; Strong House vote against B61; NNSA overreaches on $300m plan; Air force missile assessment; and Help Los Alamos pick a logo.

July 11, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

Getting to ‘بله’ with Iran - Hasan Rouhani’s election as Iran’s new president will force the Iranian regime to review its approach to nuclear negotiations, perhaps adopting a more moderate position. “The Obama administration needs to do the same,” writes former State Department official Bob Einhorn in Foreign Policy.

--Einhorn explains a new negotiating approach where the U.S. and Iran could pursue a phased, comprehensive deal that could bring Iran back into compliance with the NPT, allow it a limited and heavily monitored uranium enrichment program, and lead to sanctions relief. For such a deal to work, Einhorn argues the White House should create an understanding with Congress on how sanctions relief would be managed and work with the UN Security council on a step-by-step plan for easing international sanctions. Full article here. http://atfp.co/1brFQoa

Opening position - “P5+1 hopes new Iran nuclear team responds to Almaty offer” by Laura Rozen at Al Monitor. http://bit.ly/11FO0HY

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B61 amendment - The House of Representatives narrowly rejected an attempt to cut funds for the B61 bomb Life Extension Program. Rep. Mike Quigley (D-IL) and Jared Polis (D-CO) introduced an amendment this week that would have cut $23.7 million from the bomb. Yesterday afternoon, the amendment failed, despite a strong bipartisan vote of 196-227.

--The vote sets up a possible spending showdown with the Senate, who cut the B61 program by $168 million. Michael Coleman at The Albuquerque Journal has the story. http://bit.ly/15jrNfF

--Roll call vote: The Quigley amendment received 196 “Ayes,” including 30 Republicans. Official vote here. http://1.usa.gov/1brL7fx

Tactical defeat, strategic success - “While the amendment failed 196-227, it marks a significant milestone in the campaign to reduce the nuclear weapons budget and complex,” writes John Isaacs of the Council for a Livable World. Yesterday’s “House vote makes it much more likely that the Senate’s lower figure will be ultimately adopted. And these actions might well mark the beginning of the end for the misbegotten B61 program,” writes Isaacs. http://bit.ly/13DC4Ym

Cash-hungry stockpile - The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) is looking so spend $280 billion over the next 25 years on nuclear weapons activities - supporting an extravagant plan to upgrade warheads and make them interoperable. If the sticker shock wasn’t bad enough, NNSA’s description of the plan makes it apparent that the agency low-balled the plan’s cost.

--NNSA has not actually completed cost estimates for these programs, its plans do not account for budget shortfalls or schedule slippage and it assumes there will be unexplained efficiencies in warhead programs. Worse, the agency does not provide an explanation for how this plan will make stockpile maintenance less expensive or facilitate nuclear reductions.

--Writes Kingston Reif, “The Pentagon, NNSA, and the contractors they employ have a long history of overreach when it comes to modernizing the nuclear stockpile. But this time, they have taken that overreach to a whole new level.” Full analysis at Nukes of Hazard. http://bit.ly/15jbTSo

Botched test - “Lawmakers Want Answers from Pentagon Over Missile Test Failure” by John Bennett of Defense News. http://bit.ly/18buYvW

Missile intel - “Neither Russia nor the United States produce or retain any MRBM or IRBM systems because they are banned by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force Treaty, which entered into force in 1988,” states a new Air Force intelligence report on the threat of ballistic and cruise missiles. This directly rebuts claims from arms control opponents that Russia was not living up to its commitments under the INF treaty. Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists looks into the new report. http://bit.ly/12jVwTP

--Full report: “Ballistic & Cruise Missile Threat” by the Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Center. (pdf) http://bit.ly/10OYLVJ

Nonpro priorities - “At a time when the federal government has few resources to spare, Congress cannot afford to continue with wasteful programs like MOX. Doing so diverts resources away from critical nuclear security programs like GTRI that work behind the scenes to maintain the security of the American people,” writes Nick Roth in The Hill. Full article here. http://bit.ly/11FOnSF

Developing - An Iranian dissident group with “a mixed track record and a clear political agenda” alleges that it has information of a new Iranian nuclear site. Reuters has the story. http://reut.rs/1b3lX8w

LANL logo - “Help Pick a New Logo for the Birthplace of Nuclear Weapons!” by Mark Thompson at Battleland. http://ti.me/155o1qk

Events:

--"Institutional Roadblocks to Deterrence Stability in South Asia." Polly Nayak, and Lt. Gen. Vinay Shankar. July 11, 12:30-2:00 PM @ Stimson Center. Details here. http://ow.ly/mL1lg

--”Avoiding Apocalypse: Searching for Peace with North Korea” with Bill Richardson and Jon Williams at the Asia Society, New York. July 11 from 6:00-7:30 pm. Webcast here. http://bit.ly/1bo0CVY

--"Generation Prague: Building a Strategy of Peace.” Keynote speaker, Secretary Ernie Moniz. July 16-17. Details here. http://ow.ly/mL24r

--68th Anniversary of the Trinity nuclear test. July 16th.