Direct Diplomacy: Outcomes and Outlooks for Nuclear Talks with Iran

On the radar: Highest-level direct talks in years; Cautious optimism for a deal; What a deal should look like; Rouhani met Ollie North back in the day; Jason on B61; and the Single switch that prevented a Goldsboro disaster.

September 27, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

Breaking the impasse - Diplomats from Iran, the U.S. and its international partners were upbeat and cautiously optimistic that a deal could be reached to settle the nuclear impasse with Iran. The meeting was capped by a one-on-one meeting between Secretary John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. It was the highest-level direct contact between the US and Iran in years.

--”In another sign of building momentum, both sides agreed to fast-track negotiations and hold a substantive round of talks on Oct. 15-16 in Geneva. Iran, hoping to get relief from punishing international sanctions as fast as possible, said it hoped a resolution could be reached within a year,” reports Matthew Lee and Lara Jakes for AP. http://abcn.ws/1avvCBG

--”I think all of us were pleased that the Foreign Minister came today, that he did put some possibilities on the table. Now it’s up to people to do the hard work of trying to fill out what those possibilities could do,” said Sec. Kerry after the meeting. http://1.usa.gov/14OZSGY

Direct talks - “The United States and Iran made diplomatic history Thursday as Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif talked for a half-hour on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting on Iran’s nuclear program,” reports Barbara Slavin for Al Monitor. ”The only previous meeting between a US Secretary of State and an Iranian foreign minister since the 1979 revolution took place in 2004 when Colin Powell and Kamal Kharazzi exchanged courtesies at a dinner.” http://bit.ly/1bd9WuX

Outcomes - “We agreed to jump-start the process so that we could move forward with a view to agree, first, on the parameters of the end game, how we want to proceed Iran's nuclear program in a year's time, and also to think about steps, starting with a first step, that should be implemented in order to address the immediate concerns of two sides, and move towards finalizing it hopefully within a year's time,” said Iranian Foreign Minister Jarvad Zarif on outcomes from yesterday’s meeting with the P5+1.

--Comments were from a broader discussion at the Council on Foreign Relations. Full transcript here. ”A Conversation With Hassan Rouhani” with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, Iranian Ambassador to the UN Mohammad Kazaee, Richard Haass and Josette Sheeran. http://on.cfr.org/16Pbnvy

Outlook - “It is time to stop talking about the perfect, impossible agreement [with Iran] and start talking about the kind of deal that is possible with real-world diplomacy and pragmatic way to secure U.S. interests,” write analysts Greg Thielmann and Kelsey Davenport in Roll Call.

--The authors write that U.S. should present “a proposal that meets the international community’s most serious concerns about Iran’s nuclear program and guards against a nuclear armed Iran. A deal also must provide Tehran with the sanctions relief it needs for its economy and the conditional right to continue nuclear activities related to energy and the production of isotopes used for medical treatment.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/1h8DUkx

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History lesson - “When Rouhani Met Ollie North” by Shane Harris of Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/1bhgHzk

Boomers are expensive - “Admiral: Navy Must Shrink Submarine Development Costs” by Kris Osborn of DoD Buzz. http://bit.ly/188ZnrC

The essential and the nonessential - An independent technical review of the program to upgrade the B61 nuclear bomb was relatively optimistic about the scope of the program. The report, written by the advisory group Jason, suggests that the scope of the B61 Life Extension Program (LEP) is reasonable - so long as the program doesn’t hit cost or schedule troubles. However, as the program’s cost (unsurprisingly) skyrocketed to $10 billion and the schedule slipped, it might be time to drop nonessential upgrades to the bomb, notes Stephen Young at All Things Nuclear.

--For Official Use Only: “JASON B61 Life Extension Program Nuclear Scope Review,” August 9, 2012. (pdf) http://bit.ly/19LZPtQ

Gottemoeller on reductions - “If confirmed, I will play a role in [the administration’s nuclear arms control efforts] and I can assure you that the Administration and I are committed to consulting with the Congress and our Allies as we move forward with the nuclear arms reduction process. When considering possible reductions, the United States will only enter into treaties and agreements that are in our national security interest,” said Acting Under Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller in her confirmation hearing yesterday before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Full prepared testimony here. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/193ktL8

Speed reads:

--”Iran, U.N. Nuclear Agency to Meet Again After 'Constructive' Talks” by Redrik Dahl of Reuters. http://reut.rs/16Pl1hV

--”Most of Syria’s Toxins Can Be Destroyed More Easily Than Officials Initially Thought” reports Joby Warrick of The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1eMyNK7

--”UK nuclear arms backup plan urgent ahead of Scottish vote-lawmakers” by Reuters. http://reut.rs/15zO3XF

Events:

--”The U.S.-Russia Relationship: Transcending Mutual Deterrence.” Gary Samore, William Tobey, and Pavel Zolotarev. Moderated by Steven Pifer. September 30, 2:00-3:30 pm @ The Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium. Details here. http://ow.ly/oZSM9

--"Reform Under Rouhani: Assessing Positive Change In Iran." Discussion with Ramin Asgard, Arash Ghafouri and Geneive Abdo. Sept. 30 from 9:00-10:30 am at Stimson. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/18pv5le

Dessert:

Averting disaster - In 1983, Lt. Col. Stanislav Petrov was on duty at a Soviet early warning station when the system warned of an incoming US nuclear attack. It seemed odd to Petrov that a first strike would only include the five detected missiles. On gut instinct, he did not pass the warning up his chain of command, which could have set in motion a US-Soviet nuclear war. Radio Free Europe has the story. http://bit.ly/1avg3K4

By the slightest of margins - In 1961, a 4-megaton nuclear weapon almost detonated over Goldsboro, NC, in one of the closest calls in the history of nuclear weapons accidents. As Eric Schlosser reveals in his new book “Command and Control,” the safety systems for that bomb failed one after the other, preparing the bomb for full nuclear detonation, until a single safety switch - one that had a history of failure - prevented an explosion. Alex Wellerstein at Restricted Data has a photo of such a switch and some Sandia documents about the accident.

--As Secretary of Defense McNamara described it in 1963, “by the slightest margin of chance, literally the failure of two wires to cross, a nuclear explosion was averted.” http://bit.ly/1bhcDiD