Diplomats Working Through START Follow-on Verification Issues

Verification Holding Up New START Deal, Diplomat Says - RadioFreeEurope/ RadioLiberty [link]

• Verification of missiles stocks and reduction is holding up agreement on a new U.S.-Russian arms deal, a senior diplomatic source said today.
• The two powers failed to reach a deal on December 4 to replace a Cold War treaty to cut their nuclear arsenals as it expired but agreed the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) would remain in force as negotiators continued to work.
• "The Russians want a less intrusive system than the old treaty," said the source, who is not involved in the negotiations but is informed of their progress.

The End of START, The End Game of START's Follow On - Steve Pifer in the Brookings Institution's Up Front Blog [link]

• As was the case with START, verification issues have emerged as tough problems in the end game of this negotiation.
• The Russians want an end to the U.S. inspection presence at Votkinsk, where they build their mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles. Mobiles pose a verification challenge. Their mobility makes them hard to target; that’s good for nuclear stability. Their mobility also makes them hard to count; that’s bad for arms control. Having inspectors at Votkinsk let the United States get a good count of the Russian mobiles. Without Votkinsk, the question will be whether there are alternative ways to get that count. This is probably a soluble problem.
• A second verification issue is telemetry, the data that a missile and post-boost vehicle (the missile section that carries the warheads) broadcast during test shots. START essentially required the United States and Russia to share their telemetry, in order to make a missile’s performance transparent to the other. The Russians reportedly want to end this practice. This, however, appears more critical to Washington than Votkinsk.

Obama Calls Turkey "Important Player" In Iran Nuclear Dispute - Bloomberg [link]

• Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he is willing to serve as a diplomatic channel to the Iranian leadership after President Barack Obama pressed him yesterday for more support to curb Iran’s nuclear program.
• Obama said he told Erdogan during a White House meeting “how important it is to resolve the issue of Iran’s nuclear capacity in a way that allows Iran to pursue peaceful nuclear energy but provides assurances that it will abide by international rules and norms.”
• “I believe that Turkey can be an important player in trying to move Iran in that direction,” Obama said.
• For more information about how Turkey fits into the nuclear puzzle, read the analysis of Ploughshares' Alex Bell and Ben Loehrke in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

Bosworth in Pyongyang - ArmsControlWonk [link]

• In sizing up how substantive this trip is, though, the one obvious thing to watch for is who meets with Bosworth. That’s the standard by which these visits — official or private — are generally measured: by the amount of face time that one’s interlocutors are presumed to get with Kim Jong Il.

Medvedev: Russia Against Expanding Nuclear Club - Associated Press [link]

• Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Monday urged greater control over nuclear arms, warning radical elements could threaten neighbors and use the weapons to spark large-scale conflict.
• At a joint news conference with visiting Indian Prime Minister Manmoham Singh, Medvedev indicated that Russia is interested in strict control over nuclear weapons "so that they aren't taken hostage by any kind of radicals; so that they won't be used to start any kind of conflict or even threaten neighbors."
• "I'll say it openly: Moscow has no interest in expanding the nuclear club," Medvedev said.