Col. Wilkerson: Don’t Undercut Negotiations

On the radar: Military option “a fiction,” negotiations best; Congressional meddling; Luers and Pickering on Iran talks; Intra-triad budget competition; Mousavian on the enrichment question; Heinonen on verifying Iran’s program; Russia’s ICBM test; and Congressional support for diplomacy.

May 23, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

A negotiated solution - “Virtually all of America's national security leaders, from Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta and his predecessor Robert Gates, to Bush administration intelligence chief Gen. Michael Hayden, have stated that the idea of ending Iran's nuclear program with military strikes is a fiction and that a negotiated solution, backed up by international pressure, represents our best strategy,” writes Col. Lawrence Wilkerson for McClatchy.

--”Negotiations with Iran are simply too important to be undercut by meddling from politicians whose presumptions are not based on sound intelligence and whose political agendas make a positive outcome more difficult. Given the consequences and the American lives that are no doubt on the line, patient and determined negotiations should be given the chance to succeed.” http://owl.li/b6eHd

Meddling - The latest WSJ op-ed from Sens. Graham, Lieberman and McCain WSJ hits all the Iran hawk talking points: 1) Beware 'confidence-building' measures. 2) Be prepared to use military force. 3) And don’t ease the pressure “before the Tehran regime has truly abandoned its military nuclear ambitions.” http://owl.li/b6ey2

Restructuring the negotiations - The Istanbul talks were a good start, but now “a new concept and broad agenda” are needed to solve to the Iran nuclear standoff, write Ambassadors Bill Luers and Thomas Pickering in Project Syndicate.

--The authors lay out a step-by-step approach that starts with confidence-building measures in Baghdad. http://owl.li/b6eMJ

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Subs v. ICBMs - Rep. Norm Dicks’ surprising response to an effort to delay the new bomber - “look at land-based missiles [instead]” - shows that Congress may be figuring out what military leaders have said before: budget constraints may make modernizing all three legs of the triad impossible. Bill Hartung has the story. http://owl.li/b6eEs

Event - “The Day After Baghdad: Assessing the Iran Nuclear Talks,” a panel discussion with PJ Crowley, George Perkovich, Bijan Khajehpour, Aaron David Miller and Trita Parsi. May 24 at 2pm at NIAC. Details and RSVP here. http://owl.li/b2ZP7

Tweet - @JoelMartinRubin: CSIS's Alterman nails it. Accepting half-victories is key 2 avoiding failure in preventing an ‪#Iranian‬ bomb. http://bit.ly/JbTFXj

Breaking the impasse - Hopes of a positive outcome in Baghdad are growing, after the IAEA and Iran agreed to a deal on greater transparency. “But if the west insists on suspension of enrichment activities, they will end in failure,” writes Hossein Mousavian, former spokesman for Iran’s nuclear negotiating team, in the Financial Times.

--A possible deal, writes Mousavian, could require Iran to ratify the Additional protocol, fully cooperate with the IAEA, and establish a consortium with other countries to manage Iran’s uranium fuel-cycle activities. In exchange, the P5+1 could work with Iran to resolve the IAEA’s outstanding questions, begin lifting international sanctions, and recognize Iran’s peaceful enrichment program. http://owl.li/b6eKd

Verification with Iran - A key goal of IAEA dialogues with Iran is to verify that iran’s nuclear program is peaceful and will remain so. Olli Heinonen, former IAEA head of safeguards, provides an 18-point process for Iran and the IAEA to increase transparency and cooperation and bring Iran back in compliance with its NPT obligations. (pdf) http://owl.li/b6eCO

Russia tests new ICBM - Earlier today, Russia launched a prototype ICBM. Pavel Podvig writes that the missile appears to be a “development of the Topol-M/Yars line” although perhaps with a new propellant. On the media linkage between this test and NATO’s missile defenses, Podvig writes, “No surprises there - any nonsense seems to be justified if it is billed as something that could counter missile defense.” http://owl.li/b6evf

Event - “Nukes, Missiles, and the Truth,” a conversation with Walter Pincus at the American Security Project, May 24 at 12:30. Details and RSVP here. http://owl.li/b2ZIU

Call for diplomacy - A bipartisan group of 71 members of Congress, led by Reps. David Price (D-NC) and David Dreier (R-CA), called on the president to “take full advantage of opportunities for diplomatic engagement, in concert with sanctions and other appropriate measures, to prevent a nuclear weapons-capable Iran.” Read the full letter here. http://owl.li/b6etF