After Report, Double Down on Diplomacy

On the radar: Slavin on steps to keep Iran from the bomb; Albright on the technical details; Joe puts the report in perspective; Concerning, but neither imminent nor inevitable; IAEA report not a game changer; WH relatively quiet; IAEA meeting on the 18th; Lieberman saber rattles; Fewer targets, fewer bombs; Oil markets feel it; and the Loose geeks problem.

November 9, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Iran nuke threat: what’s next? - “The Iranian government, according to U.S. intelligence officials, has not yet decided to produce and test an actual nuclear device — even as it amasses the knowledge and materials to do so. So U.S. policy going forward should be to convince Iran that it will be better off not crossing that threshold,” writes Barbara Slavin in Politico. “The Obama administration should use the IAEA report, given Tuesday to the agency board, to double down on diplomacy.”

--From the recommendations: The IAEA should use the new report to persuade Iran to come clean on its past work; The administration should convince Iran’s trading partners (China) to enforce existing sanctions; Congress should not sanction the Central Bank of Iran; and Washington should provide Iran with a sense of what kind of peaceful nuclear activities it can accept under stringent safeguards. http://owl.li/7nTCj

The technical stuff - “IAEA Details Evidence of Nuclear Weaponization Activities in Violation of the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty; Enrichment at Natanz Continues to Stagnate; Three Cascades of IR-1 Centrifuges Installed at Fordow, Low Enriched Uranium Cylinder Moved to Fordow.” From the summary of the latest ISIS analysis of the IAEA Iran safeguards report (pdf). http://owl.li/7nVJC

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Joe on Al Jazeera - “It’s very clear from this report that Iran has not made a decision to make a nuclear weapon...And thus there is still time to convince Iran not to build a nuclear weapon.” Watch the full interview here. http://owl.li/7nTIp

Still not imminent - “The report suggests that Iran is working to shorten the timeframe to building the bomb once and if it makes that decision. But it is also apparent that a nuclear-armed Iran is still not imminent nor is it inevitable,” write Daryl Kimball, Peter Crail, and Greg Thielmann.

--”The report should prompt more intense international pressure on Tehran to respond more fully to the IAEA’s questions, allow for more extensive inspections of its nuclear facilities, engage more seriously in talks on its nuclear program, and to agree to confidence building steps to help resolve the crisis.” http://owl.li/7nTOf

Not a game-changer - The IAEA report gives new details on Iran’s nuclear program pre-2003, but does not contain a “smoking gun.” Laicie Olson notes that the report doesn’t contain much that that we didn’t already know. From CNN’s Global Public Sphere. http://owl.li/7nTKu

Sound and fury - ”There is something a little phoney about all the sound and fury. There is nothing in the report that was not previously known by the major powers,” writes Julian Borger. “It is clear that this is not a race to a bomb. If anything, it is a tiptoeing, an ambling or (as Jeff Lewis at the Monterey Institute of International Studies puts it) a moseying towards weapons capability.”

--“Iran has the raw materials and the skills necessary to make a small arsenal, perhaps in a few months, if it decided to "break out"...But that would be a huge step to take, and a step the current regime has shown it has no appetite for.” http://owl.li/7nX4L

”Muted” WH response - The administration’s response to the report was “strikingly muted,” reports The New York Times. “That reflected the White House’s reluctance to fuel a war of words — including the openly discussed possibility of an Israeli pre-emptive strike — but also a careful strategy to allow the agency’s report to speak for itself in hopes that it will intensify economic and diplomatic pressure on Iran, administration officials said.” http://owl.li/7nTGH

The Process - “I think you know the process here: that after a report like this comes out, we also have a scheduled meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors coming up on November 18th, so Iran will be an agenda item at that meeting. So we will take the time between now and then to study this," State Dept. spokesperson Victoria Nuland said. Josh Rogin has the story. http://owl.li/7nTEc

Hill hawkery - "It is time for an unequivocal declaration that we will stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons capability by peaceful means if we possibly can, but with military force if we absolutely must," said Lieberman from the Senate floor. http://owl.li/7nXUn

NPR implementation - “The U.S. Defense Department expects by the end of the year to update its plans for the nation's nuclear weapons posture, potentially setting the stage for further reductions in the arsenal,” reports Global Security Newswire. http://owl.li/7nTSu

--"The review is probably Obama's most important and perhaps last chance to change the role that nuclear weapons have traditionally played in the U.S. national security strategy...The result of the review will be a broad rewriting of directives and analyses that are used to guide military planners in preparing the country's forces and strategic nuclear war plan," write Hans Kristensen and Robert Norris in Arms Control Today. http://owl.li/7nTUo

The report and the oil markets - Oil prices rose yesterday to $96.52 a barrel. Influencing that rise, "Leaked information suggests that Iran is seen as geared to developing nuclear weapons, which could increase the risk of a military attack on Iran's nuclear facilities," analysts at Commerzbank said in a note on Tuesday. "We believe this justifies a certain risk premium on the price of oil." AFP reports. http://owl.li/7nTQC

Our Expensive, Expanding Nuclear Weapons Complex - “Why is America's nuclear capacity expanding even as it tells the world it plans to forsake its arsenal? A few little-known facts about the nuclear weapons complex provide some answers,” writes Adam Weinstein for Mother Jones.

--The little-known facts: “Old bombs don’t die, they zombify;” “Disarmament is happening at a snail’s pace;” “Funding for the nuclear weapons complex is growing;” and “We’re developing the next generation of nuclear weapons.” http://owl.li/7nVuH

Loose geeks - “One of the most disturbing pieces of evidence in the United Nations report about Iran’s program to develop a nuclear “device” isn’t even about an Iranian. It’s about a Russian physicist who has evidently assisted Iran with weapons design. And there may be tens of thousands more [geeks] just like him, nonproliferation analysts say, ripe for hiring by rogue states or terrorist groups,” writes Spencer Ackerman.

--”It’s unclear if the IAEA report will bring new attention to the Loose Geek problem. But it’s not hard to imagine Sen. Lugar reading it from his Senate offices, pouring himself a Bushmill’s and muttering to himself that he told everyone so.” http://owl.li/7nTWp