Cohen: Iran Deal Hardliners Lack Realistic Alternatives

On the radar: Dismantlement camp, war camp; Congress looks to force a vote; Work visits Minot; LRSB and defense consolidation; Rouhani on sanctions; and Finding the “political will” to seal a deal.

February 12, 2015 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

Curtailers vs dismantlers - Proponents of complete dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program are clouding the debate, writes Roger Cohen for the New York Times. “You can’t bomb a people’s knowledge out of existence. Yet this in essence is what the dismantlers propose. In reality, the dismantlement camp favors escalation that makes a calamitous conflict with Iran more likely; it is a war camp.”

--“This situation comes down to alternatives. Either you get a negotiated solution that ensures over some 15 years that Iran’s program is strictly limited, at least a year from breakout, with eyes and ears on the ground you’ve never had before, and the plutonium path to a bomb cut off by the transformation of the Arak research reactor — or you go for military action...A tough nuclear deal, of the kind sought by Obama, would enhance Israeli security. War with Iran would undermine it.” http://nyti.ms/19c0L20

Gearing up - A bill from Senator Bob Corker (R-TN) forcing an up-or-down vote on a final Iran deal has been tentatively scheduled for committee markup the last week of February, All-Monitor’s Julian Pecquet reports.

--Analysts argue that the bill could undermine the ongoing talks and a comprehensive agreement. If Congress votes down a deal, "there is no going back to the negotiating table," reads a recent issue brief from the Arms Control Association. "It's a strategy that potentially drives us over a political and geostrategic cliff." http://bit.ly/1KPKQ55

More arsenal Work - “Renewed focus on the U.S. nuclear force after several scandals last year is improving conditions for airmen, but more work must be done, Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work said on Wednesday” after touring Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota.

--“Work's visit to the base, the only U.S. facility housing both nuclear missiles and bombers, came a week after the Pentagon rolled out a 2016 budget that calls for $8 billion in new spending on the nuclear force over the next five years, including about $1 billion for the 2016 fiscal year. Arms control groups have criticized the Obama administration for proposing a $534 billion Pentagon base budget that includes new spending on the nuclear arms.” Full story by David Alexander for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1B268fT

LSRB business implications - “When the Pentagon this spring announces who will design and build a major new stealth bomber for the Air Force, the decision will determine Boeing’s future in the combat-aircraft business,” writes Dominic Gates for The Seattle Times.

--“Boeing has teamed with Lockheed Martin, the top defense contractor, in bidding against Northrop to build up to 100 new-generation long-range strike bombers (LRS-B) that will replace the Air Force’s B-1 and B-52 bombers.” Should they win, “it could precipitate an aggressive move by Boeing, the No. 2 U.S. defense contractor, to acquire the aircraft unit of No. 3 defense player Northrop Grumman.” Full story here. http://1.usa.gov/1CZ4jAU

Rouhani on sanctions - “Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said Wednesday that he’s seeking the removal of all sanctions against his country during negotiations with world powers on a nuclear deal,” reports Golnar Motevalli for The Washington Post. “We want an agreement that protects our dignity and respect,” Rouhani said at a rally to mark the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution that overthrew Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. http://wapo.st/1uJh283

Israeli track record- “Obama is undoubtedly the American president who has done more for the security of the State of Israel than all of his predecessors,” former Israeli Defense Minister Amir Peretz told Al-Monitor in an interview on Tuesday.

--Discussing the political fallout surrounding Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s anticipated speech before the U.S. Congress Peretz said, “It is important to me that the Israeli public realizes that [President Barack] Obama contributed and continues to contribute much to Israel’s security. Netanyahu’s speech before Congress will not stop an agreement with Iran. It will only harm our relationship with the United States.” Full interview here. http://bit.ly/1A00p7a

Tweet - @KelseyDav: Corker bill is unhelpful, risks the talks. - Senate aims to set up vote on a #Iran deal by month's end http://almon.co/2d3g #IranDeal

Political will - In a new edition of “All Things Considered” on NPR, Steve Inskeep and Rachel Martin discuss the negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. “The biggest barrier appears to be whether parties in these talks have what experts say is the ‘political will’ to write a final agreement,” says Inskeep. Listen to the full story here. http://bit.ly/1Me6WBy

Quick Hits:

--“Classified and Public: B-53 Bomb Yield Declassified,” by Steven Aftergood for the Federation of American Scientists. http://bit.ly/1Eftfks

--“Tilting the Balance: Endgame for P5+1 Talks,” by Harry Halem for Arms Control Wonk. http://bit.ly/1AroKEW

--“Seeking suitable coexistence with Iran,” by Brian Watson in the Gloucester Times. http://bit.ly/1F1SuL2

Events:

--“Nuclear Bargains Reviewed: Washington's Cold War Nuclear Deals and What They Mean for Iran. Featuring Or Rabinowitz, King's College London. February 13 from 1:00-2:30 p.m. Located at the Wilson Center, Fifth Floor, Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington DC. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1v1CLmy

--“Nuclear Enterprise Update: An NNSA Perspective," featuring Frank Klotz, Administrator, National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). February 17, 8:00-9:00 a.m., Air Force Association Boardroom, 1501 Lee Highway, Fourth Floor, Arlington, VA. RSVP online. http://conta.cc/1CdtuKS.

--Annual “Nuclear Deterrence Summit.” February 17-20 at the Omni Shoreham Hotel, 2500 Calvert St. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1zG0IUF

--"Nixon Legacy Forum: Detente & Arms Control with the USSR," featuring Phil Odeen, Jan Lodal, David Aaron and Winston Lord, former members of Nixon's National Security Council staff. February 23, 10:00 a.m., National Archives Museum McGowan Theater, Constitution Ave. between 7th and 9th Sts. NW, Washington. RSVP online. Webcast on YouTube. http://bit.ly/1M9CBUJ

--“Commission to Review the Effectiveness of the National Energy Laboratories,” public meeting on February 24 from 9:00 a.m.-noon. Located at the Hilton at Mark Center, Birch Conference Room, 5000 Seminary Road, Alexandria, VA. RSVP via e-mail to CRENEL@hq.doe.gov. http://1.usa.gov/1B2aXpx

--“The Past and Future of the Nuclear Enterprise.” Featuring Michael Elliott, Deputy Director for Strategic Stability Plans and Policy Directorate, Joint Chiefs of Staff, Center for Strategic and International Studies. February 25 from 9:00-10:00 a.m.. Located at CSIS, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1xXGYaE

Dessert:

Tweet - @Cirincione: Say it ain't so, Jon. You are the best. #JonStewart http://bit.ly/19cc7my