President Obama: No Good Alternatives to a Diplomatic Deal with Iran

On the radar: Deal or no deal; Nuclear budget shows Cold War thinking; Say no to nukes in Ukraine; Prudence after negotiations; The Rubik’s Cube of a deal; and That time we almost nuked New Jersey.

February 10, 2015 | Edited by Jacob Marx

More from the President - “Issues have been clarified, gaps have been narrowed, the Iranians have abided by the agreement… we're in a better position than we were before the interim program was set up,” President Obama said in a joint press conference with Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany yesterday. “The issues now are, does Iran have the political will and the desire to get a deal done?”

--On sanctions: “I have been very clear -- and Angela agrees with me, and David Cameron agrees with me, and the others who are a member of the negotiations agree -- that it does not make sense to sour the negotiations a month or two before they’re about to be completed. And we should play that out. If, in fact, we can get a deal, then we should embrace that.”

--“As the president of the United States, I'm looking at what the options are if we don't get a diplomatic resolution. And those options are narrow, and they're not attractive.” Full transcript here. http://1.usa.gov/1DycDqs

Back to the future - “The United States isn’t leading by example on the non­proliferation front,” writes Walter Pincus in The Washington Post. “It’s increasing spending across the board on its nuclear weapons.”

--”We are planning to spend [billions] to prepare the homeland in the event of a nuclear first strike. It was a myth that drove the United States and Soviet Union each to build thousands of weapons during the Cold War. Unlikely then. And it’s certainly unlikely now,” Pincus concludes. Spending billions “in the expectation that the deterrence will fail...only helps create the impression that this country is preparing for nuclear war, and might strike first.” http://wapo.st/16Ou893

Breaking Tweet - @jeremyherb: SASC votes unanimously to back Carter for defense secretary http://politi.co/1E3fPYI

Bad ideas for $500 - Two members of Congress recently proposed deploying U.S. tactical nuclear weapons and dual-capable aircraft in Europe. The idea “provides no advantage,” write Lt. Gen. Robert Gard Jr. (USA, Ret.) and Greg Terryn in Defense One.

--“It would be an expensive initiative that would add nothing to our security, divert funds from higher priority defense expenditures, likely provoke Russia to deploy nuclear weapons in Crimea, increase the possibility of nuclear war, and be divisive amongst our NATO allies.” Full column. http://bit.ly/1CPPYa7

Russian exercises - “Nuclear units in the Russian navy have engaged in exercises in the international waters underneath the North Pole, a move which analysts believe is a thinly veiled response to [Thursday's] news that NATO is to reinforce its eastern European border with Russia.” Damien Sharkov reports for Newsweek. http://bit.ly/1zsyxVJ

Proceed with caution - What happens if talks collapse? “It’s clear that there will be political pressure in Washington and Tehran for punitive actions if the negotiations end...But both sides should be careful about taking unilateral actions that blow up the status quo,” writes David Ignatius in The Washington Post.

--With civil war still raging in Iraq and Syria, and the persistent threat of a regional nuclear arms race, now is not the time to provoke “another Middle East war. Not when Iran is isolated internationally and embattled in its neighborhood — and needs an agreement more than its leaders seem to realize.” Full column here. http://wapo.st/1DAMhnH

Slattery on Iran - Iranian President Hassan Rohani and his inner circle are “deeply committed to improving this relationship with the United States,” said Former Senator Jim Slattery (D-KS) at an Atlantic Council event yesterday. “I believe that if they fail, we are likely to see the return of a much more hardline government in Iran.” Full coverage via AFP. http://bit.ly/1A91zAw

Rubik's Cube deal- A comprehensive nuclear agreement with Iran should not be judged on any one facet (such as number of centrifuges), but “on its overall impact on reducing Iran's fissile-material production capacity and providing the additional transparency and monitoring necessary to detect and deter any future Iranian nuclear weapons program.” A new issue brief from the Arms Control Association explores the requirements for a good deal.

--Principal requirements will be blocking the uranium path, blocking the plutonium path, a robust sanctions and monitoring regime, sanctions relief, and resolution of questions about possible military dimensions. http://bit.ly/1DUqipU

--See Also: “The goal of U.S. policy has been, is and must be to secure verifiable limits on Iran’s capacity to produce bomb material and establish tougher monitoring to deter any dash for nuclear weapons,” writes Kelsey Davenport in a letter to The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1ATdBO4

Counterproductive - “Instead of being an opportunity to seriously address the risks of Iran’s nuclear program, such a speech would scuttle the discussion,” writes Shmuel Rosner in The New York Times of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plan to address Congress on March 3. “Already, by accepting Mr. Boehner’s ill-advised invitation, Mr. Netanyahu has further alienated a White House in which he has few fans and embarrassed Democrats in Congress, pushing away even those who are sympathetic to his concerns about Iran.” http://nyti.ms/1zSULnr

Diplomats discuss Pyongyang - “The number two diplomats from the United States and South Korea held talks in Seoul Monday to discuss bilateral issues and North Korea's nuclear and missile programs, officials said.” Voice of America reports. http://bit.ly/1vC9wg6

--See Also: “S. Korea, U.S. to stage deterrence drill against N. Korea,” reports Oh Seok-min for Yonhap News Agency. http://bit.ly/1Ag8uGv

Quick Hits:

--“No, Russia Did Not Detonate A Tactical Nuke In Ukraine,” by Tyler Rogoway for Foxtrot Alpha. http://bit.ly/1KILr8v

--“Modernization Mountain: Ash Carter and the Aging Triad,” Arms Control Wonk podcast featuring Jeffrey Lewis and Aaron Stein with special guest Geoff Brumfiel of NPR. http://bit.ly/1CdHQNL

--“New Mexico state, local officials travel to Washington to discuss nuclear cleanup,” reports the Associated Press. http://bit.ly/1ATgmiF

Events:

--“Iran Nuclear Talks: Truths and Tall Tales from Tehran and Tel-Aviv." Featuring Ori Rabinowitz, author of Bargaining on Nuclear Tests: Washington and its Cold War Deals, and Ariane Tabatabai, Georgetown University. February 11 from 10:00 a.m.-Noon. Located at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, 1400 K St. NW, Suite 1225, Washington DC. RSVP by February 9 online. http://1.usa.gov/1z6uT8k

--“Nuclear Bargains Reviewed: Washington's Cold War Nuclear Deals and What They Mean for Iran. Featuring Or Rabinowitz, King's College London. February 13 from 1:00-2:30 p.m. Located at the Wilson Center, Fifth Floor, Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington DC. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1v1CLmy

--"Nuclear Enterprise Update: An NNSA Perspective," featuring Frank Klotz, Administrator, National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). February 17, 8:00-9:00 a.m., Air Force Association Boardroom, 1501 Lee Highway, Fourth Floor, Arlington, VA. RSVP online.

--Annual “Nuclear Deterrence Summit.” February 17-20 at the Omni Shoreham Hotel, 2500 Calvert St. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1zG0IUF

--"Nixon Legacy Forum: Detente & Arms Control with the USSR," featuring Phil Odeen, Jan Lodal, David Aaron and Winston Lord, former members of Nixon's National Security Council staff. February 23, 10:00 a.m., National Archives Museum McGowan Theater, Constitution Ave. between 7th and 9th Sts. NW, Washington. RSVP online. Webcast on YouTube. http://bit.ly/1M9CBUJ

Dessert:

Near miss - It’s a summer day in Morris County, New Jersey. The year is 1961. And a nuclear warhead is going to come a hair's breadth from detonating on an Air Force tarmac. Lorraine Ash speaks with Nicholas Lambros, one the airmen present for the near miss, for the Daily Record. http://dailyre.co/1DwPQLy