Obama Threatens to Veto Iran Sanctions

January 16, 2015 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

Veto threat - “President Barack Obama made clear Thursday in a closed-door session with Senate Democrats that he’s prepared to veto hostile legislation from the GOP-controlled Congress, including an Iran sanctions package on the front-burner of Capitol Hill.”

--“According to several sources at the Thursday summit in Baltimore, Obama vowed to defend his agenda against Republicans in Congress, promised to stand firm against GOP efforts to dismantle his agenda and called on his Democratic colleagues to help sustain his expected vetoes. The president also was explicit over his administration’s opposition to an Iran sanctions bill, promising to veto legislation with his administration in the midst of multilateral nuclear negotiations with the Middle Eastern regime.” Full story by Manu Raju in Politico. http://politi.co/1CvTanE

--See Also: “Obama and Senator Robert Menendez Spar on How to Handle Iran,” by Michael Shear in The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1wg6KGz

Sanctions on fast track - The Senate Banking Committee has a hearing scheduled on Tuesday where the Committee is expected to premiere new sanctions on Iran. January 20th at 10am. http://1.usa.gov/1x5AgQK

We meet again - “U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Jawad Zarif will meet for talks in Paris on Friday on Iran's nuclear policy, Iranian and U.S. sources said.” Full story in Reuters. http://reut.rs/1wg9hkb

How to kill negotiations - “The United States has an historic opportunity to limit Iran’s nuclear program, block its pathways to the bomb, and guard against a covert nuclear weapons program,” writes Kelsey Davenport in a new issue brief for the Arms Control Association.

--Any Congressional action on sanctions at this time stands to “push Iran away from the negotiating table, and erode international support for the sanctions regime currently in place.” Moreover, if the U.S. were to impose additional sanctions before the timeline for negotiations is up, it would be in violation of the interim deal, not Iran. Full analysis here. http://bit.ly/1zn9aKO

Editors’ note - Early Warning will be offline on Monday for MLK Day. We’ll resume our regular schedule on Tuesday. Enjoy the long weekend.

After a deal - If the P5+1 and Iran successfully reach a comprehensive nuclear agreement, there are plenty of areas where U.S. and Iranian interests align and cooperation would be useful. In a new report from the Center for a New American Security, Ilan Goldenberg, Jacob Stokes and Nicholas Heras recommend that, after a deal is reached, the U.S. should pursue a patient, limited, and incremental approach for building cooperation with Iran.

Principles for cooperation after a deal:
--Keep the nuclear issue front and center.
--Maintain, formalize and expand communications channels established during the nuclear talks.
--Start small with issues that are less politically charged, such as maritime security and Afghanistan.
--Focus on areas and issues where moderates and technocrats on both sides are likely to control the policy.
--Limit initial engagement on ISIS to operational de-confliction, while avoiding any attempts at strategic cooperation; over the longer term, test whether increased cooperation may be possible, particularly in Iraq.
--Be actively transparent with regional partners about U.S. efforts to improve cooperation with Iran.
--Reassure regional partners, by being willing to provide additional military support, that their interests are not being undermined.

--Report: “Slow Thaw: Testing Possibilities for Cooperation with Iran After a Nuclear Deal.” (pdf) http://bit.ly/1u7lFZx

Motivated - “A new sense of urgency emerged as US and Iranian negotiators met for a second day here to try to advance a framework for a final nuclear accord, even as gaps remain on critical issues that still have to be overcome for any deal to be reached. ‘We are not working on a 'draft' framework, but on the actual framework,’ a diplomat at the talks, speaking not for attribution, told Al-Monitor Jan. 15. ‘I think we will know in a few days’ how much progress has been made.’” Full story by Laura Rozen. http://bit.ly/1CvsaEF

Iran’s hardliners - “Iranian lawmakers are considering a push toward resuming unlimited uranium enrichment if the United States imposes new sanctions on Tehran amid negotiations on the country's nuclear programme,” reports AFP. The new GOP controlled Congress is considering a such a bill in the coming week “to force concessions from Iran.” Full story here. http://yhoo.it/1yr19my

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: 'Iran's path to nuclear weapons must end...sanctions must be lifted credibly and step-by-step' from @AlMonitor http://bit.ly/1zn9zgi

Tail kit on schedule - “The Air Force remains on schedule to conduct flight testing of the B61-12 thermonuclear weapon tail kit assembly starting in November as the program moves toward a critical design review, the program office has confirmed.” Full story via Inside Defense. (paywall) http://bit.ly/1ykkHKR

Lending a hand - “Sometimes, even declared enemies of the Caliphate (or ISIS) can lend it a helping hand. That is essentially what is happening now as Senators Mark Kirk and Bob Menendez push to undermine the nuclear talks with Iran -- a key adversary of ISIS,” writes Trita Parsi in The Huffington Post. Full column here. http://huff.to/158mvcE

Arms control with China - As U.S. Russia relations deteriorate and Moscow recapitalizes its strategic capabilities, treaty requirements have continued to preserve a large degree of transparency. Not so with China, Adm. Cecil Haney, head of U.S. Strategic Command, told a think tank audience on Thursday.

--“The piece that concerns us, and we work hard at is, China is not transparent in terms of its intentions and in terms of its [nuclear] development programs.” With Russia, “being able to have this transparency through new START treaty is very important to both our nations…We have continued to inspect each other, per plan, associated with that treaty, for example.” Full story by John Grady for USNI News. http://bit.ly/1C7wls5

Precommitments - If talks with North Korea are to resume, “At a minimum, Pyongyang should commit to a moratorium on missile launches and nuclear tests as part of any summit arrangements. And any new benefits extended to Pyongyang should be matched by a North Korean recommitment to its 2005 pledge to denuclearize and to freeze its plutonium and uranium programs,” argues Robert Manning in The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/1sGsMad

--See Also: “Why invading North Korea would be insane,” by Harry Kazianis in The Week. http://bit.ly/17Po5C2

Moniz, mo problems - “In his year and a half leading the Energy Department, Secretary Ernest Moniz has played the sheriff as much as the scientist,” writes Emily Kopp for Federal News Radio. "Clearly we have important missions in energy, science, climate change. We have a very important mission in nuclear security but, frankly, the feeling was, without raising our game in management and performance, our mission accomplishments get compromised,” Moniz told FNR on Thursday before announcing a series of new safety initiatives. http://bit.ly/1u93DpQ

Tweet - @ncitayim: Surprise surprise, #Iran has had to postpone its London #oil roadshow for a SIXTH time. No nuke deal = no roadshow. http://ow.ly/HreFw

Quick Hits:

--“Northrop wins U.S. deal worth up to $963.5 mln for ICBM support,” by Andrea Shalal for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1y5tKNM

--“Economic Isolation Weighs On Iranians; Desire Nuclear Talks Resolved.” Tune in to the full story from NPR. http://n.pr/1ucsByW

--“White House won't draw US prisoners into Iran nuclear talks,” by Justin Sink in The Hill. http://bit.ly/1KQp3wX

--“Feds say troubled US nuclear waste dump in New Mexico may not fully reopen until 2018,” from the Associated Press. http://fxn.ws/1IQD6yB

--“NRC Holds Public Meeting About MOX Facility and Changes in Inspections,” report by Jennie Montgomery for WJBF news. http://bit.ly/1xwXONz

Events:

--“Strategic Deterrence in 2015 and Beyond," featuring Maj. Gen. Garrett Harencak, Air Force Assistant Chief of Staff for Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration. January 20, 7:00-9:00 a.m. Sponsored by the Air Force Association. Key Bridge Marriot, 1401 Lee Highway, Arlington, VA. RSVP online.

--Senate Banking Committee, hearing on "Perspectives on the Strategic Necessity of Iran Sanctions." January 20, 10:00 a.m.-noon, 528 Dirksen Senate Office Building, Washington. committee website

--"Possible Game-Changing Technologies - Reinvent Nuclear Security." Online webinar on January 20, 2:00-3:30 p.m. EST. Part of the N-Square Roundtable Series. Register online.

--“Congress's Role in Verification After an Iranian Nuclear Deal." Featuring Christopher Bidwell, Federation of American Scientists; John Lauder, former CIA Chief of Nonproliferation; and Harvey Rishikof, American Bar Association. January 22, noon-2:00 p.m. Sponsored by Third Way. Located at HVC-215 Capitol Visitor Center, Washington. RSVP by email to rsvp@thirdway.org.

--"Australia and the Bomb," featuring Christine Leah, Yale University; Christian Ostermann, Wilson Center; and Elbridge Colby, Center for a New American Security. January 28, 2:00-3:30 p.m., Wilson Center, Sixth Floor, Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online.

Dessert:

Keeper of the clock - “Of humanity’s many notable achievements since the end of World War II, perhaps the greatest is simply that we haven’t yet destroyed ourselves,” writes Leo Mirani in his profile of John Mecklin. Mecklin, who edits the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and keeps of “The Doomsday Clock” tells Mirani, “in the end you have to figure that humanity doesn’t want to kill itself. And you just have to hope that people who get in power in major countries in the world realize the power of these technologies.” Full profile in Quartz. http://bit.ly/1x9WbX8

Riiiight... - “North Korea, a hereditary dictatorship under international pressure over its nuclear weapons program and human rights record, has sent a representative to a travel fair in Switzerland to attract visitors to the isolated country.” You read that right. Joshua Franklin reports for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1yrLh1R

Paving the way - This photograph from Frank Munger’s Atomic City Underground shows workers literally paving the way for the Manhattan Project in 1943. http://bit.ly/1AVJsLp