Hardliners Threaten Iran Nuclear Talks as Negotiators Head to Geneva

January 12, 2015 | Edited by Jacob Marx

Saving the deal - Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has “acted boldly” in recent weeks in support of a nuclear deal, first threatening Iran’s hardliners with a popular referendum and then signaling new openness on the question of centrifuges. However, as the editors of The New York Times write, “Mr. Rouhani is not the only leader trying to keep a potential agreement from being savaged by domestic opponents.”

--President Obama has a similar problem in Congress, where “Republican leaders have said that new and stronger sanctions are near the top of their to-do list…Such a move might be justified down the road if negotiations collapse, or if Iran cheats on its commitments. But at this stage it could easily undermine the talks, split the major powers and propel Iran to speed its nuclear development.”

--“A deal that is verifiable and significantly limits Iran’s nuclear activities can succeed if it both enhances regional security and benefits Iran. There will still be some risk for all sides. But the bigger risk is squandering this moment and leaving Iran free to pursue an unconstrained nuclear program. This would invite more sanctions, new tensions and perhaps even military action and a cyberattack.” Full editorial here. http://nyti.ms/1AI7k59

Tweet - @michellenichols: New #US sanctions on #Iran now could torpedo nuclear deal: @AmbassadorPower - by @Lou_reuters http://t.co/bnXva0cuQx

Tweet - @Reuters: Iran says to explore with U.S. ways to speed up nuclear talks http://reut.rs/1BQtBPF

Walking the walk - “High-level meetings in Geneva in coming days will offer an early test of whether Iran is willing to show new flexibility in the stalled international negotiations on its nuclear program,” writes Paul Richter for the Los Angeles Times.

--”Western officials hope to see whether Rouhani will return with new instructions from Iran's supreme leader that will allow completion of the several major issues that remain unresolved.” Full story here. http://lat.ms/1y3Tmeo

See Also - “The meeting is calculated to take stock, number one, and to provide direction to our teams, number two, and to hopefully be able to accelerate the process to make greater progress," Secretary of State John Kerry told reporters on a visit to India. Full story via Arshad Mohammad of Reuters. http://reut.rs/1IkcdVu

Russia’s role - “Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Monday that a more active role for Russia could speed up talks aimed at sealing a comprehensive deal on Tehran's disputed nuclear programme.” Story via AFP. http://yhoo.it/1BTVHts

Tweet - @ReThinkDefense: "So what, then, is the solution — regime change? We have seen that movie before and it does not end well.” #Iran http://lat.ms/1C7W1mq

Preconditioning - North Korea offered to impose a temporary moratorium on nuclear tests if the U.S. canceled its joint annual military exercises with South Korea. North Korea demands cessation of the drills on a regular basis, but the quid pro quo of suspended nuclear tests is a new development. Full report by Choe Sang-Hun for The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1AI5K34

LANL fines - “The contractor managing the nuclear weapons laboratory at Los Alamos, N.M., was slapped with a $57-million reduction in its fees for 2014, largely due to a costly nuclear waste accident last year.”

--“The contractor, Los Alamos National Security, saw its fee reduced 90% because of the accident, in which a 55-gallon drum packaged with plutonium waste from bomb production erupted after being placed in a 2,150-foot underground dump in the eastern New Mexico desert.” Full report by W.J. Hennigan and Ralph Vartabedian of the Los Angeles Times. http://lat.ms/1C7W1mq

Culture matters - “How can nuclear organizations build an effective security culture that ensures ever-improving performance, year after year?” asks Nickolas Roth in a new piece for Nuclear Security Matters. “This is a question that policymakers should consider when they assess the risk posed by nuclear weapons and materials. It is also a question that those who work at nuclear facilities must provide positive answers for every minute of every day.” Full column here. http://bit.ly/1xgKRY3

Quick Hits:

--“DOD Wants To Upgrade Air Force One, ‘Doomsday’ Aircraft Communications Suites,” reports Inside Defense. (paywall) http://bit.ly/1Bb7djZ

--“Please Stop Misusing the Phrase ‘Height of the Cold War,’” by Adam Rawnsley for War is Boring. http://bit.ly/1BYUhLP

--“Funding new submarines outside the Navy?” by Hugh Lessig in the Daily Press. http://1.usa.gov/1AQLoY9

Events:

--“The Myth Of Deterrence Stability Between Nuclear-Armed Rivals,” featuring Michael Krepon, Amb. Linton Brooks, and George Perkovich. Moderated by Joshua White. Wednesday, January 14, 12:30-2:00 p.m., at The Stimson Center, 1111 19th Street, NW, 12th Floor, Washington DC, 20036. RSVP here.

--“The Endgame: Success or Failure in Iran Nuclear Talks?" Featuring Ambassador Bill Luers, Paul Pillar, and Robin Wright of The Iran Project. January 14 from 4:30p.m.-6:00p.m. Located at Georgetown University’s Mortara Center for International Studies, 3600 N St. NW, Washington. RSVP online.

--“Briefing: The North Korean Threat: Nuclear, Missiles and Cyber.” Featuring Sung Kim, Special Representative for North Korea Policy and Deputy Assistant Secretary for Korea and Japan; Daniel Glaser Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence U.S. Department of the Treasury; and Brigadier General Gregory J. Touhill, USAF, Retired. Jan 13, 2015 10:00am to 1:00pm, 2172 Rayburn House Office Building Washington, DC 20515. Full details here. http://1.usa.gov/1BWeMJw

--“Strategic Deterrence in the Twenty-First Century." Featuring Adm. Cecil Haney, Commander, U.S. Strategic Forces. January 15 at 9:30 a.m.. Located at the Atlantic Council, 12th Floor, 1030 15th St. NW, Washington. RSVP online.

--“Strategic Deterrence in 2015 and Beyond," featuring Maj. Gen. Garrett Harencak, Air Force Assistant Chief of Staff for Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration. January 20, 7:00-9:00 a.m. Sponsored by the Air Force Association. Key Bridge Marriot, 1401 Lee Highway, Arlington, VA. RSVP online.

--"Australia and the Bomb." Featuring Christine Leah, Yale University; Christian Ostermann, Wilson Center; and Elbridge Colby, Center for a New American Security. Jan. 28, 2:00-3:30 p.m., Wilson Center, Sixth Floor, Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1tGp8bD

Dessert:

Getting BUFF - Flying a B-52 is no walk in the park. Or in the words of Foxtrot Alpha’s Tyler Rogoway, “The B-52H Stratofortress is a quarter of a million pound aluminum Cold War era pterodactyl, and its durability is as legendary as its striking power. To call the big jet's flight control system precise would be a blatant lie and pilots have told me that muscling the jet around at low-level is the most exciting upper-body workout around.” Video evidence here. http://bit.ly/1BTT2zQ