New Congress Looks to Undercut Iran Deal

January 6, 2015 | Edited by Will Saetren

Sanctions outlook - When Republicans return to Washington this week with control over both houses of Congress, they are expected to “have their sights set on one key Obama administration initiative: Iran,” writes Ali Watkins for The Huffington Post.

--“According to Republican sources on Capitol Hill, new Iran measures will be a top priority for the incoming majority... But passing or even threatening new sanctions during the incredibly delicate talks would pit Capitol Hill starkly against the Obama administration, which has long said that any aggression towards Tehran could derail the already tentative hope for a deal.” Read the full story here. http://huff.to/1BuQW9g

Tweet - @Livableworld: Welcome to the 114th U.S. #Congress, swearing in today. Will they give US negotiators room to negotiate on #Iran? http://t.co/7MlpyeQkPX

NK’s nukes - “South Korea’s defense ministry said Tuesday that Pyongyang’s ability to produce a nuclear warhead was ‘at a significant level,’” but that the North’s ability to miniaturize a nuclear warhead to put on such a missile was assessed to be “incomplete.”

--South Korea’s assessment differs from recent comments by Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, commander of U.S. forces in the Korean peninsula, that North Korea is “capable of building a miniaturized nuclear warhead.” Jeyup Kwaak has the story for The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/1FgAoG5

Tweet - @KingstonAReif: .@politifact ruling on claim Iran has cheated on the Joint Plan of Action: "Mostly False" http://t.co/fV74lGTk2w

Rouhani preps for a deal - “In an astonishing speech at an economic conference on 4 January, Rouhani noted that the constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran allows for a public referendum on important policy matters,” writes Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

--“This constitutional provision has never been employed and it is doubtful that Rouhani could force a referendum without Khamenei’s approval. But by suggesting this tactic, the president warned opponents that they should not prevent his negotiators from reaching a deal.” Read the full analysis here. http://bit.ly/1Ik3SiC

Vote of confidence - “Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif was backed in a hastily convened vote Tuesday over his handling of long-running nuclear talks, after he was heavily criticised in a stormy parliamentary session,” reports AFP. “The vote was not a formal confidence motion with defined repercussions, but it would have undoubtedly undermined his credibility had he lost.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1s1krxu

Step up - Experts are calling on Japan to play a greater role in reducing the threat of nuclear weapons, reports The Japan Times. “The Japanese government could be more supportive of reductions” than it currently is, said Joe Cirincione, president of the Ploughshares Fund. “If there was any ally who could play that role, it would be Japan.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1BG7XM5

Tweet - @DefenseOne: Why North Korea Sanctions Are Unlikely To Be Effective http://t.co/GyztvJDGhc

Quick Hits:

--”The Dragon’s Fire: Welcome to Chinese Nuclear Weapons 101” by Kyle Mizokami in The National Interest. http://bit.ly/1xO75aw

--“How Iran Can Escape Its Nuclear Deadlock with the U.S.,” by Abolhassan Bani-Sadr in the Huffington Post. http://huff.to/1Aqm2O3

--“Congress can change U.S. policy on Iran and Israel,” by Jennifer Rubin in The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1wRYX1V

Events:

--“Preventing a Nuclear-Armed Iran through Diplomacy,” webinar by Women's Action for New Directions, featuring Kelsey Davenport of ACA and Jamal Abdi of NIAC. Wednesday January 7 at 2:00 PM. Register here.

--"WMD Terrorism and the American Response." Featuring Brad Hammitt of the National Nuclear Security Administration. January 8 at 4:30p.m. Off the record. Located at the Institute of World Politics, 1521 16th St. NW, Washington. RSVP online.

--“The Endgame: Success or Failure in Iran Nuclear Talks?" Featuring Ambassador Bill Luers, Paul Pillar, and Robin Wright of The Iran Project. January 12 from 4:30p.m.-6:00p.m. Located at Georgetown University’s Mortara Center for International Studies, 3600 N St. NW, Washington. RSVP online.

--“Strategic Deterrence in the Twenty-First Century." Featuring Adm. Cecil Haney, Commander, U.S. Strategic Forces. January 15 at 9:30 a.m.. Located at the Atlantic Council, 12th Floor, 1030 15th St. NW, Washington. RSVP online.

--“Strategic Deterrence in 2015 and Beyond," featuring Maj. Gen. Garrett Harencak, Air Force Assistant Chief of Staff for Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration. January 20, 7:00-9:00 a.m. Sponsored by the Air Force Association. Key Bridge Marriot, 1401 Lee Highway, Arlington, VA. RSVP online.