Experts Urge Caution on Wrecking Iran Talks with New Sanctions

December 5, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

SFRC panel rejects sanctions - Wednesday’s Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on Iran gave congressional hawks a surprise when a panel of experts pushed back against plans for new sanctions. As Eli Clifton reports in The Nation, panelists David Albright, Michael Doran and Gary Samore, were expected to make the case against diplomacy with Iran and endorse Senator Bob Menendez’s plan for trigger sanctions beginning in March.

--“Trigger sanctions, where they come into effect in a mandatory way, is perceived by the Iranians as putting a gun to their head and leads them to put together trigger-advancements in their nuclear program,” said Albright. “Iran might actually welcome such legislation because they could very well calculate that it will put more pressure on the P5+1 to make additional concessions in order to get a deal,” said Samore. Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/125ozk7

Message received - On Thursday Senator Bob Corker, who’s in line to replace Senator Menendez as chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, “signaled he may move slowly on legislation to impose additional sanctions on Iran over its nuclear activities…‘You realize that you’re in essence, to use a term, firing with real bullets,’ he said in an interview.”

--“Trying to understand the dynamics of the negotiation and the role that Congress can play is what we’re going to be wrestling with as we go into this next year,” Corker said. Full story by Terry Atlas in Bloomberg. http://bloom.bg/1CMPJwX

Hardest part yet to come - “The relentless focus on [an Iran deal] obscures an important truth: much of the struggle to ensure the deal’s success will come after the ink is dry.” As Peter Feaver and Eric Lorber write in Foreign Affairs, “A host of obstacles could undermine the future agreement’s sustainability, and even the most favorable deal reached by the end of the new extension period would represent the start of the real work rather than a victory.” Article here (paywall). http://fam.ag/1I9ofSj

Buy ALL the boats - Rep. Randy Forbes (R-VA), “The chair of the House Seapower and Projection Forces subcommittee said Congress will find a way to fund the Navy’s next-generation nuclear-armed submarine fleet and look to move toward significantly larger fleet numbers compared to the current Navy goal of 306 ships.”

--As Kris Osborn reports for DoD Buzz, “The planned pace of retirement for many of the Navy’s surface ships built between 1980 and 1990 and the funding needed to secure production in 2021 for the first next-generation ballistic missile submarine, the Ohio Replacement program, are placing extensive strain on available resources, according to the plan.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1yTINJj

Oil and a deal - “Oil prices have undercut Iran’s current and expected earnings by billions of dollars, and there are signs that the hit could get worse.” However, as Steve LeVine writes for Quartz, “a debate is under way in Washington on whether this oil bludgeon is sufficient, in combination with existing sanctions, to drive Iran to make steep concessions in its nuclear program.” Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/1zukRvq

Ivan the helpful - U.S. and Western officials alike have hailed Russia’s assistance in highly sensitive talks over Iran’s nuclear program as being, “highly constructive, professional and creative,” writes Laura Rozen for Al-Monitor. Read the full story on Russia’s oddly helpful role and the Russian diplomat at the center of it. http://bit.ly/1yXk6g1

Tweet - @Ali_Gharib: An idea from the WaPo opinion pages: revert Iran policy to the hapless, ineffective program of years past http://bit.ly/1tRe4s6 ht @hmajd

Why Vienna matters - The international principle that states should protect their own citizens has been enshrined in the norm of a “responsibility to protect.” Yet “there is one way in which governments are posing a devastating danger to their own citizens that the United Nations has not addressed: by threatening nuclear war.” Read Kennette Benedict of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists on the significance of next week’s conference on the humanitarian impact of nuclear weapons in Vienna. http://bit.ly/1ymrzSc

Tweet - @FAScientists: FAS's Kristensen participating in Conference on Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons in Vienna: http://ow.ly/FqlBc

Who is Ashton Carter? - The White House just announced its nomination of Ash Carter to be the next Secretary of Defense. Robert Burns of the Associated Press reports on Chuck Hagel’s presumptive replacement and what to expect from a Carter Pentagon here. http://1.usa.gov/1FTFp2C

Stand down, sir - “The Cold War – and the constant fear of nuclear war – were among the darkest periods in humanity’s history. We had all hoped that those days were behind us,” writes Karipbek Kuyukov for The Diplomat. “There is talk of a return to Cold War brinkmanship and even development of new nuclear weapons...Progress made towards ending the nuclear threat is in danger of being reversed. We need to step back from this precipice.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1z22QX5

Weapons of the past - The UK is ramping up plans to spend billions on new Trident class nuclear ballistic missile subs, plans Richard Norton-Taylor questions in a new article for The Guardian. “Even Tony Blair in his memoirs, A Journey, conceded that ‘the expense is huge and the utility...non-existent in terms of military use.’ He said he kept it for reasons of ‘status.’” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1ynEg4d

Quick Hits -

--“U.S. State and NTI Launch New International Partnership for Nuclear Disarmament Verification,” from the NTI website. http://bit.ly/1A0a1gL

--“House bill includes provisions for Malmstrom, MANG,” via Jenn Rowell of the Great Falls Tribune. http://gftrib.com/1A0dgVy

--“Poll finds Israelis appreciate US support, wary of Obama’s policies,” by Tamar Pileggi of The Times of Israel. http://bit.ly/1wEBV4c

--“Beyond M.A.D.: Reviving Nuclear War,” by Robert Koehler in the Huffington Post. http://huff.to/1zut9DN

Events:

--“The Budapest Memorandum at 20: The United States, Ukraine and Security Assurances.” Featuring Robert Einhorn, Ambassador Stephen Pifer and Oleksandr Zaytsev. Located at the Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington, DC, 20036, Saul/Zilkha Rooms. Tuesday, December 9 from 2:00 - 3:30 pm. RSVP online. http://ow.ly/FfAgI

--“Project on Nuclear Issues Winter Conference," hosted by CSIS from December 9-10. Located at 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1pYd6xV

--“The U.S., Israel and the regional dimensions of an Iran nuclear deal.” A panel discussion hosted by New America. Featuring Shlomo Brom, Suzanne DiMaggio and Ilan Goldenberg. Wednesday, December 10, 3:00 p.m. - 4:30 p.m.. Located at New America’s offices at 1899 L Street NW, Suite 400, Washington, DC, 20036. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/15OlS8U

--"Did the Nuclear Negotiations Include Iran's Ballistic Missiles?" Featuring Michael Elleman. Friday December 12 from 2:00p.m.-3:00 p.m. Located at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2121 K St, NW, Washington DC. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/12AAjft