Midterm Elections and the Prospects for an Iran Deal

November 7, 2014 | Edited by Will Saetren and Jacob Marx

The final stretch - “The US and EU are holding a potentially historic meeting with Iran from Sunday, in the final stretch of negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear programme,” write the editors of the Financial Times. “That might be seen as an augury of success, but for this week’s midterm election debacle, which left President Barack Obama facing a Republican lock-hold on both houses of Congress...It would be a disaster if an issue of such vital interest to the stability of the Middle East and the world became a collateral casualty of America’s ultra-partisan and parochial politics.”

--“It is hard to overstate how important a credible deal on the nuclear question could become. It could provide a vital lever to start restabilising the wider Middle East, an imploding region that may explode beyond the ability of local or external powers to regain even a semblance of control. Any conceivable end to the sectarian bloodletting between Sunni and Shia Muslims, which has dismembered Syria and Iraq, and conjured the totalitarian death cult of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant into a position where it can threaten Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia – and the west – begins with a deal with Iran.” Read the full editorial here. http://on.ft.com/1zAg1Ab

Poor alternatives - “Iran's diplomats understand perfectly well what a Republican-controlled U.S. Congress could mean for them: more sanctions and less compromise. So the pressure is on to get an agreement in the ongoing talks over Iran's nuclear program before the Nov. 24 deadline,” write the editors of Bloomberg View. “When the deadline arrives, however, there will probably still be disagreements. If so, Iran and the U.S. should keep talking -- and the new U.S. Congress, which takes office in January, should be made to understand that new economic sanctions are a terrible idea. They would destroy the best, if imperfect, hope of delaying Iran's progress toward building nuclear weapons.”

--“The alternatives to Obama's sanctions-plus-diplomacy approach are two: sanctions alone, or airstrikes. Neither of these would end Iran's nuclear-weapons program for good. On the contrary, they would probably accelerate Iran's bid for the bomb...At best, a little posturing from newly empowered Republicans in the U.S. Congress may push the negotiating process along. But ultimately, everyone will be better off if hawks in Washington and Tehran alike stay out of the way.” Read the full editorial here. http://bv.ms/1u6u792

Obama’s 4th quarter - “If Obama wants significant accomplishments in foreign policy in his last years in office, he will first need the discipline with which he began his presidency,” writes Fareed Zakaria. On Iran, Zakaria says “the basic strategy has been smart, but it has not received sufficient presidential attention and focus. It remains unclear whether Iran is ready to make peace with the United States and the West. But if it is, Obama should present Washington and the world with the deal, even though almost any agreement will surely be denounced as treason by Republicans and attacked by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.” Full article here. http://wapo.st/1GvJCMP

--See also: David Ignatius of The Washington Posts lists a nuclear agreement with Iran as one of President Obama’s best opportunities on foreign policy in his last two years. Read the article here. http://wapo.st/110w0cp

“Israel, Iran, and the Republican Victory” - “The Republicans’ Senate victory offers Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu new hope for outmaneuvering President Barack Obama on Iran,” writes Trita Parsi in Foreign Affairs. “In the coming weeks, he could use a Republican-led Congress to sabotage negotiations with the Islamic Republic on its nuclear program. But the victory would be short lived. By scuttling the talks, Netanyahu could empower Iran’s hardliners.”

--“By now, it is clear that Israel’s current Iran strategy—bluffing war to push the world to ratchet up the economic siege on Iran—is no longer working. [Recent] revelations that a senior Obama administration official had privately stated that Netanyahu does not have what it takes to take on Iran, leaves little doubt about that.” Read the full story here. http://fam.ag/10ydxD0

IAEA Iran report - “Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran” by the IAEA Director General. November 7, 2014. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1z6cOFi

Tweet - @Cirincione: Key finding of new #IAEA report: under JPOA, Iran has not enriched U over 5% & entire stock of 20% U gas is gone. The deal is working.

POTUS letter - “President Barack Obama secretly wrote to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the middle of last month and described a shared interest in fighting Islamic State militants in Iraq and Syria, according to people briefed on the correspondence,” write Jay Solomon and Carol Lee for The Wall Street Journal. “The letter appeared aimed both at buttressing the campaign against Islamic State and nudging Iran’s religious leader closer to a nuclear deal.”

--“Mr. Obama stressed to Mr. Khamenei that any cooperation on Islamic State was largely contingent on Iran reaching a comprehensive agreement with global powers on the future of Tehran’s nuclear program by a Nov. 24 diplomatic deadline, the same people say. The October letter marked at least the fourth time Mr. Obama has written Iran’s most powerful political and religious leader since taking office in 2009 and pledging to engage with Tehran’s Islamist government.” Read the full story here.http://on.wsj.com/1sjSWKk

Explaining the gaps - “With less than three weeks before a Nov. 24 deadline to reach a deal preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, ‘big gaps’ remain, in the words of U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry.” In a new article for Bloomberg News Indira Lakshmanan and Kambiz Foroohar examine what exactly these gaps are, and how the negotiators in Vienna are attempting to redress them.

--On the list are: Breakout; Counting centrifuges; Disabling equipment; Limiting R&D; Verifying an agreement; Military sites; Relief of sanctions; and The length of a deal. Read the full story here. http://bloom.bg/1wC2Jkb

Report: The Congressional Budget Office’s new report, “Long-Term Implications of the 2015 Future Years Defense Program.” http://1.usa.gov/1EmA58N

Tweet - @StateDept: Secretary @JohnKerry has named Ambassador Sung Kim as U.S. Special Representative for #NorthKorea Policy. Read more: http://go.usa.gov/Ajz5

Quick Hits:

--“US Appoints New Envoy for North Korea Policy” from the Associated Press. http://abcn.ws/1uH0LQy

--“US Shoots Down 3 Missile Targets in Hawaii Test” from the Associated press. http://abcn.ws/1xh4VNR

--“Carnegie RFP on Disruptive Tech” in the latest edition of the Arms Control Wonk podcast from Jeffrey Lewis. http://bit.ly/1xpd4y6

--“Bringing Iran into the Nuclear Security Summit,” by Ariane Tabatabai and Miles Pomper for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. http://bit.ly/1sn7EjN

Events:

--"Nuclear Policy in the 21st Century," featuring Rose Gottemoeller, Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, 4:30-6:00 p.m., Nov. 7, University of New Hampshire Law School, 2 White St., Concord, NH. http://bit.ly/10RMbIW

--“The Impact & Implications of Iranian Nuclear Weapons on U.S. & Regional Security” featuring Robert Gallucci, Georgetown University on November 10 from 6:00-8:00 p.m. Sponsored by Johns Hopkins University. Located at the Marriott Residence Inn Pentagon City, 550 Army Navy Drive, Arlington, VA. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1tyAAc5

--“Prospects for a Nuclear Agreement with Iran," featuring Robert Litwak, Wilson Center; Mark Mazzetti, New York Times; and Jay Solomon, Wall Street Journal. Nov. 12 3:00-4:30 p.m.,Wilson Center, Sixth Floor, Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online http://bit.ly/1wYWRkI

--“Radioactive Knowledge: State Control of Scientific Information in Post-Soviet Kazakhstan," featuring Magdalena Stawkowski, Stanford University. Nov. 13, 3:30-5:00 p.m. Stanford University, CISAC Conference Room, Encina Hall Central, Second Floor, 616 Serra St., Palo Alto, CA. RSVP online. http://stanford.io/1wkOxf8

--“Eyes on North Korea: Threats from the Hermit Kingdom," featuring Mark Tokola, former deputy chief of mission, U.S. Embassy in South Korea; Bruce Klingner, former CIA deputy division chief for Korea; Fred Fleitz, former CIA analyst; and Bruce Bechtol, former senior intelligence analyst, Defense Intelligence Agency. Nov. 20, Noon-1:30 p.m., International Spy Museum, 800 F St. NW, Washington. Tickets are $12. http://bit.ly/1tMxkvw

--Friends Committee on National Legislation, annual meeting. Nov. 22-23. Washington Plaza Hotel, 10 Thomas Circle NW, Washington, and on Capitol Hill. Register online. http://bit.ly/1zRq30A