Iran Deal: The Final Sticking Points

October 28, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

Home stretch - “U.S. and Iranian negotiators are preparing to enter the intense endgame in the Iran nuclear deal talks, amid mixed assessments of prospects for completing the deal by the self-imposed Nov. 24 deadline,” writes Laura Rozen in Al-Monitor. “The size of Iran’s enrichment capacity in a final nuclear deal [remains] the key hold-up to finalizing agreement, negotiators have said. Iran has wanted to keep...about 9,400 centrifuges; while the P5+1 initially proposed Iran reduce its enrichment capacity to 1,500 centrifuges in the near term.

--“Iranian media reported last week that the P5+1 has offered a modified proposal under which Iran could keep around 4,000 centrifuges if it takes other steps to increase its breakout time, including sending out more of its stockpile of low-enriched uranium and converting the stockpile it keeps into a form that would be difficult to higher enrich. U.S. officials, while not confirming the reports, have recently said there are multiple combinations of ways that Iran’s breakout time could be extended, and the focus should not only be on the centrifuge numbers in a deal.”

--“Arms control and Iran experts who regularly consult with the US administration offered conflicting assessments of prospects for completing the comprehensive nuclear accord by the Nov. 24 deadline, with some suggesting an extension would likely be needed, but others insisting the administration sees a narrow path to complete the deal by then.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1zepdtM

Tweet - @Cirincione: We are in the final 30-day stretch to a #IranDeal. Here's my @IranPrimer guide to the key issues. http://bit.ly/ZWgsVV

Cards on the table - “With the deadline for a comprehensive nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5+1 right around the corner, the negotiating parties are starting to reveal more of their cards in hopes of striking a deal. Along with the creative solutions that the West has put on the table, there are now reports about it showing more flexibility on what remains the talks’ key sticking point: enrichment.” writes Ariane Tabatabai.

--“If the [Iranian] negotiating team accepts the 4,000- to 5,000-centrifuge proposal on the table, it can sell the deal back home in Iran using Khamenei’s guidelines, depending on the timeframe fixed in the final agreement. This is especially true if this proposal is part of a larger package that the team can stand behind. The current deal includes an attractive offer from the P5+1 on other sticking points, including the Arak heavy water reactor and the underground enrichment facility in Fordow.” Read the full column in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. http://bit.ly/1waBi0E

Heads up - In recent years there have been repeated calls by U.S., and Chinese officials at the highest levels to improve the strategic relationship between the two countries. “Throughout the Obama administration, Washington has called for an official, Track-I discussion centered on nuclear weapons and strategic capabilities—to include nuclear weapon posture, missile defense, and long-range conventional strike—but Beijing has declined,” write Nicholas Cosmas, Meicen Sun, and John K. Wardenin in The Diplomat.

--One of the main obstacles to progress on this front has been that “Chinese interlocutors maintain that China, as the weaker power, has not reached the point where such discussions with the United States are appropriate.”

--“Yet both sides acknowledge that the United States and China have a shared interest in improving strategic communication. In April, U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel and Chinese Minister of Defense Chang Wanquan proposed a ‘military notification mechanism of major military activities.’ Advance notification would allow the two countries to avoid misperception, miscalculation, and inadvertent escalation in times of crises.” Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/1pUbQGP

Pyongyang’s ballistic missiles

“Recent press reports have raised the possibility that North Korea is developing the capability to launch ballistic missiles from submarines. A review of commercial satellite imagery since 2010 covering submarine bases and submarine shipyards has identified a new test stand.” According to Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. of 38 North, this is “probably intended to explore the possibility of launching ballistic missiles from submarines or of a shipboard vertical launch ballistic missile capability.”

--”While the potential threat from a future North Korean capability to launch ballistic missiles from submarines should not be ignored, it should also not be exaggerated. If the North decides to pursue such a capability, it is likely to take years to design, develop, manufacture, and deploy an operational submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) force. Exactly what missile system would be utilized is purely speculative at this point in time.” Read the full analysis here. http://bit.ly/1rx961E

ICBM tourism - “A legislative committee plans to sponsor a bill that could turn a Missile Alert Facility near Cheyenne [Wyoming] into a historic site and tourist attraction,” reports the Associated Press. “The bill also would seek one-time funding of $175,000 for exhibits, landscaping, equipment, parking and other needs and appropriate $51,000 annually for operation, maintenance and salaries for three part-time, seasonal employees.”

--“The facility, which was built in 1962, includes a blast-proof bunker where misileers from F.E. Warren Air Force Base lived and worked during their shifts. It was deactivated in 2005 and is now boarded up. Military officials initially planned to demolish the facility, along with four other missile alert facilities and fill the bunker with concrete, but decided the Quebec-01 facility could be an important cultural site and tourism draw because of its historical significance and because it's only 25 miles north of Cheyenne.” Read the full story here. http://1.usa.gov/1v9VviX

Quick Hits:

--“India chooses Israel over US for $525M missile deal,” via AFP. http://bit.ly/ZWglK5

--Jim Walsh discusses an Iran deal on WBUR’s Here and Now. http://bit.ly/1tBFaXA

--“W88 warhead program performs successful tests,” announces Sandia National Laboratory. http://1.usa.gov/1Dq8bXd

Events:

--"Preventing Nuclear Terrorism Globally: Results and Remaining Challenges," featuring Deepti Choubey. Oct. 29, 9:00 -11:00 a.m. at the Foreign Policy Institute,1717 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Room 500, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1yaVfn3

--"US-Iranian Religious Leaders’ Dialogue: The Relevance of Moral Questions Related to Nuclear Weapons." Featuring John Steinbruner of the University of Maryland; Richard Pates from the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops; and Stephen Colecchi from the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops. Wednesday October 29, from 10:00 a.m. to 11:30 a.m. Sponsored by Arms Control Association. located at the Carnegie Endowment, Choate Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, DC. RSVP online. http://conta.cc/1rrAePi

--“A nuclear deal with Iran? Weighing the possibilities,” featuring David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security and George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Thursday, October 30 from 2:00 p.m. – 3:00 p.m. at AEI located on the 12th floor of 1150 17th Street, Washington, DC, 20036. Register online http://bit.ly/1yZauTe

--"Challenges in Nuclear Verification: The IAEA’s Role on the Iranian Nuclear Issue," Featuring Yukiya Amano, Director General of the IAEA. Friday October 31 from 10:30 a.m. - 12:00p.m. Located at the Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1uKAOtu

--"Charting the Navy’s Future in a Changing Maritime Domain," featuring Adm. Jonathan Greenert, Chief of Naval Operations. Nov 4. 9:00-10:00 a.m. at the Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1ty1UsI

Dessert:

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Baller - “When a U.S. amateur basketball team toured the Soviet Union in 1972 during the height of the Cold War, one player was uniquely qualified to peek behind the Iron Curtain.” Basketball fans know Gregg Popovich as the coach who led the San Antonio Spurs to five NBA championships. “Fewer people know about his days spent in the Air Force in the 1970s.”

--Popovich rarely answers questions about his military service, “but military records, old news clips and interviews offer a snapshot of a military career that took him around the world,” including a stint in a secretive spy satellite program at the height of the Cold War. Read the full story by John Tedesco and Tom Orsborn in the San Antonio Express-News. http://1.usa.gov/1td59mw