Implementing an Iran Deal: the Roles of the President and Congress

October 20, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

A deal and presidential authority - “No one knows if the Obama administration will manage in the next five weeks to strike what many in the White House consider the most important foreign policy deal of his presidency: an accord with Iran that would forestall its ability to make a nuclear weapon.” But according to David Sanger of The New York Times, “the White House has made one significant decision: If agreement is reached, President Obama will do everything in his power to avoid letting Congress vote on it.”

--“The Iranians have signaled that they would accept, at least temporarily, a “suspension” of the stringent sanctions that have drastically cut their oil revenues and terminated their banking relationships with the West, according to American and Iranian officials. The Treasury Department, in a detailed study it declined to make public, has concluded Mr. Obama has the authority to suspend the vast majority of those sanctions without seeking a vote by Congress, officials say.”

--“Mr. Obama cannot permanently terminate those sanctions. Only Congress can take that step. And even if Democrats held on to the Senate next month, Mr. Obama’s advisers have concluded they would probably lose such a vote.” According to Bernadette Meehan, spokeswoman for the National Security Council there “‘is a role for Congress in our Iran policy,’ but members of Congress want a role larger than consultation and advice.” Read the full story here. http://nyti.ms/1vC6XI1

Keep doing nothing, Congress - When it comes to Iran deal “Congress must work to be part of the solution when it comes to an Iran nuclear deal, not the problem,” argues Navid Hassibi in The National Interest. Hassibi notes the way members of congress have positioned themselves - both to scuttle a deal or save it - and writes that the best way to implement a deal is through using Presidential authorities to suspend sanctions and, where feasible, involve Congress in a comprehensive repeal of sanctions. Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1omvXlO

Anti-deal - “Don’t Make a Bad Deal With Iran” by Israeli Intelligence Minister Yuval Steinitz. http://nyti.ms/ZLDsXB

Tweet - @DarylGKimball: Good diagnosis and prescription: "Time is right for U.S.-Iran arms deal" by @Cirincione #IranTalks #nuclear http://bit.ly/1t0Ic7n

Getting to normal - “We will know before Thanksgiving if negotiators can strike a deal to confine Iran's nuclear program to purely civilian uses, or if they have let slip a historic opportunity,” writes Joe Cirincione in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. “Our two nations are closer than ever before to an agreement, but both sides must take some big, final steps. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani may have to take the biggest of all.”

--“We do not yet know if we can get a final nuclear deal...Hardliners in both nations will try to kill any deal, preferring unending hostility. But the alternatives to a deal are grim — Iran with an unconstrained nuclear program or another war in the Middle East. Regional pressures and strategic imperatives are driving both sides toward an agreement. Both governments have invested heavily in the process and have much to gain. It is hard to believe that either side will allow a disagreement over plumbing to kill a deal so close to completion.” Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/1t0Ic7n

Committed to the deadline- “Neither of the negotiating parties is interested in the extension of the talks. All sides are determined to achieve an agreement prior to the deadline. Therefore, extension is not on the agenda of any of the parties,” Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs Abbas Araqchi said on Sunday.”

--Araqchi expressed satisfaction with the “considerable” progress in the process of the talks, noting, “We hope that we can achieve agreement by the appointed deadline, namely November 24...Sources close to the Iranian negotiating team say the main stumbling block in the way of resolving Western disputes over Iran’s nuclear program remains to be the removal of all sanctions and not the number of centrifuges or the level of enrichment.” Full story from Press TV, Iran’s state-sponsored media outlet. http://bit.ly/1wfL0xo

Tweet - @KingstonAReif: Follow @armscontrolnow on Instagram for images from today's annual meeting #armscontrol2014

Get real about security guarantees - Media coverage of Leon Panetta's new book Worthy Fights, which notes the possible role of nuclear weapons in responding to North Korean military action against the South, shows once again why “it is time to change the way Washington talks about nuclear weapons and U.S. security guarantees,” argues Jeffrey Lewis in Foreign Policy. “We should forever ban the term ‘nuclear umbrella.’...I don't understand why the Department of Defense thinks it's a good idea to symbolize our security commitment with something that would be stupid to do.”

--“Panetta should be speaking candidly about the broader values that anchor the U.S.-South Korea alliance and about the conventional capabilities that actually provide for South Korea's defense. Above all, that means lightening up on all the ‘nuclear umbrella’ talk, lest the South Koreans decide they want to hold the umbrella themselves.” http://atfp.co/1omq1Jo

In it to win it - “European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton will continue leading nuclear negotiations with Iran until a deal is reached, even if a November deadline is missed, she said on Monday. Ashton's five-year term as EU foreign policy chief ends at the end of this month, and she had said she would stay on as nuclear negotiator until Nov. 24, the deadline for reaching a long-term settlement with Iran over its nuclear program. Reuters has the full story. http://reut.rs/1wjrsXY

Quick Hits: -

--Russia believed to be considering selling China its newest submarine, the Amur 1650, and components for products such as nuclear-powered satellites. By Henry Meyer and Evgenia Pismennaya for Bloomberg News. http://bloom.bg/1sHEZdT

Events:

--"The Unaffordable Arsenal: Reducing the Costs of the Bloated U.S. Nuclear Stockpile," featuring Tom Collina, Ploughshares Fund. Part of the Arms Control Association annual meeting. 11:00-11:30 a.m., Oct. 20, at Carnegie Endowment, Root Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1vMTI66

--Des Browne, former U.K. Defense Secretary, keynote speech. Part of the Arms Control Association annual meeting. Noon-12:55 p.m., Oct. 20, at the Carnegie Endowment, Root Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1vMTI66

--"The Future of the Nonproliferation and Disarmament Regime," featuring Assistant Secretary of State Thomas Countryman and Guakhar Mukhatzhanova, Monterey Institute. Part of the Arms Control Association annual meeting. 1:00-1:30 p.m. Oct. 20, At Carnegie Endowment, Root Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1vMTI66

--"The Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy," featuring Rose Gottemoeller, Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. Oct. 21, 1:30-2:30 p.m., Weber State University, Elizabeth Hall, Room 229, Ogden, UT.” http://bit.ly/ZY1r6B

--"The Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons,” featuring Rose Gottemoeller, Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. 1:00-2:00 p.m., Oct. 22, University of Utah, Spencer Hall, Hinckely Caucus Room, 260 Central Campus Drive, Salt Lake City. http://bit.ly/1w0diMc

--"Iran And The Arab World After The Nuclear Deadline: Possible Scenarios,” featuring Mehrzad Boroujerdi, Syracuse University, Abbas Kadhim, SAIS, and Geneive Abdo, Stimson Center. 9:30-11:00am., Oct. 23, The Stimson Center, 1111 19th Street, NW, 12th Floor, Washington DC, 20036. http://bit.ly/1oeinAG

--"Debate: Should the United States Cut its Nuclear Arsenal?" Featuring Adam Mount, Council on Foreign Relations; Tom Collina, Ploughshares Fund; Matthew Kroenig, Georgetown University; and Thomas Moore, Wilson Center. Oct. 23, 6:00-8:00 p.m., George Washington University, Room B17, 1957 E St. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1w0dQSi

--"Preventing Nuclear Terrorism Globally: Results and Remaining Challenges," featuring Deepti Choubey from 9:00-11:00 a.m. at the Foreign Policy Institute,1717 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Room 500, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1yaVfn3