Getting a Good Deal with Iran: More than Just Centrifuge Numbers

October 17, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

Missing the big picture - Enrichment capacity is dominating the conversation as the deadline for a nuclear deal approaches, but as Greg Thielmann notes in Defense One, “the enrichment question should not detract from the importance of another important goal: verification in the comprehensive agreement.”

--“Blocking this clandestine path to a bomb–sometimes known as ‘sneakout’–should therefore be a top goal for the P5+1. Iran has already agreed to more intrusive International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA, scrutiny of its nuclear sites as part of last year’s interim nuclear agreement. But to guard against ‘sneakout,’ it is essential that a more robust international monitoring and inspection system that can help detect and deter potential weapons work at any secret sites is put in place. The only way to achieve this is through a long-term comprehensive nuclear deal.”

--“Negotiators, as well as members of Congress, cannot afford to focus on achieving centrifuge reductions at Iran’s two main and often-inspected facilities. And they must recognize that unrealistic demands to dismantle all of Iran’s centrifuges would jeopardize reaching a final deal–cutting off the only way to secure enhanced inspection rights for IAEA inspectors...A comprehensive and intrusive verification regime is essential because it can help deter Iran from being tempted to make a dash for a bomb in the first place.” Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/1pk1Iqy

Option for talks - “Iran is considering a U.S. proposal at nuclear talks that would allow it to keep more of its nuclear infrastructure intact while still reducing its ability to make an atomic bomb,” reports George Jahn of the Associated Press. “Last month [the] U.S. had begun floating alternates to reducing centrifuges...Among them was an offer to tolerate more centrifuges if Tehran agreed to reduce its stockpile of low-enriched uranium, which can fuel reactors but is also easily turned into weapons-grade material.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1ugfX13

Arak a key issue - “The future of Iran’s planned research reactor at Arak is again proving a major sticking point in international talks over Tehran’s disputed nuclear program,” reports Paul Richter for the Los Angeles Times. According to Russia’s chief negotiator Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, “there was ‘no consensus’ among the seven countries on the Arak facility...[and] described Arak as one of three key areas where ‘blocks of questions’ remain.” Full story here. http://lat.ms/1zf0cPX

Between the red lines - At the latest round of negotiations in Vienna, Iran reinforced its red lines while raising expectations that a final agreement remains within reach. “While these might sound like mixed messages, in fact they are part of a sophisticated, multi-prong strategy aimed at pressuring Washington and its negotiating partners to accede to Tehran’s stipulations for a deal,” writes Suzanne Maloney in Iran @ Brookings.

--“The Iranian strategy appears to be working – to a point. Iranian brinkmanship has succeeded in redressing the inevitable power imbalance between the isolated Islamic Republic and the...world powers that already slashed Iran’s oil exports in half...Still, it seems unlikely to me that Washington will acquiesce to Iran's obstinacy on enrichment. more importantly, I think the presumption that the Obama administration is so desperate for a foreign policy victory,” is a serious miscalculation. “Tehran's four-point hedging strategy is a dangerous bluff, and one that will ultimately fail.” Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/1yHYaXw

Vision vs. actions - “Barack Obama has been a critic of nuclear weapons since he was a college student, and then a funny thing happened — he was elected president of the United States. Now a leader who created huge expectations among strategic disarmament advocates [is] on the verge of spending nearly $1 trillion over the coming decades to modernize the U.S. nuclear arsenal,” writes Philip Ewing.

--“It’s a zero-sum budget game, and there’s no getting around that...but the Pentagon hasn’t been forced to make any choices” said Tom Collina, Director of Policy for the Ploughshares Fund. “Right now, they’re still in fantasy world of ‘we can have it all,’ so until someone comes to them and says, ‘no you can’t,’ they’re going keep planning for having it all. The adult in the room needs to stand up and force some budget decisions.” Full story at POLITICO Pro. (paywall) http://politico.pro/1wNvLLb

Tweet - @HolySeeUN: Holy See urges all states to sign and/or ratify the #CTBT without further delay, because ... (1/2)

Tense peninsula -In a passage from his new memoir, “Worthy Fights: A Memoir of Leadership in War and Peace,” former Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta claims that the U.S. was prepared to use nuclear weapons to defend South Korea if North Korean troops invaded, writes Heather Saul for The Independant.

--“If North Korea moved across the border, our war plans called for the senior American general on the peninsula to take command of all US and South Korea forces and defend South Korea— including by the use of nuclear weapons, if necessary,” Mr. Panetta wrote. “I left our meeting with the powerful sense that war in that region was neither hypothetical nor remote, but ever-present and imminent.” Read the full story here. http://ind.pn/1vi0v8M

Economic outlook - “The plunge in global energy prices and the rise of Islamic State militants have emerged as wild cards in the international diplomatic effort aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear program, said U.S. and European official,” writes Jay Solomon for The Wall Street Journal. A recent drop in international energy prices is placing even more pressure on Iran’s budget, which derives 60% of its financing through oil sales, potentially forcing Tehran into making more concessions in the talks, the diplomats said... Iran’s finances already have been sent reeling over the past two years due to international sanctions that have cut Tehran’s oil exports in half.” Read the full story here. http://on.wsj.com/1zeZG4y

The Iran distraction - As Iran negotiations slowly move towards a successful conclusion, we are seeing an intensified drive by hawks in Washington to keep the Iranian nuclear threat on the radar. This has serious consequences for U.S. foreign policy write Ryan Costello and Ali Fatemi in The National Interest. “Preventing an Iranian nuclear bomb is critical, but panicking about the possibility has led to bad strategy that undermines our security.” Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/1CvNLeT

Quick Hits:

--“U.S. nonproliferation policy is an invisible success story” by Nick Miller in The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1zeWG8g

--“2 ballistic missile defense-equipped ships moving to Yokosuka,” by Erik Slavin for Stars and Stripes. http://1.usa.gov/1FbMfmr

--“The political science and politics of the Iran nuclear negotiations,” by Daniel Drezner in The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1yJVTLr

--”When the Ayatollah Said No to Nukes” by Gareth Porter in Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/1rDngxI

Events:

--"Solving the Iranian Nuclear Puzzle," featuring Robert Einhorn, Brookings Institution; Elizabeth Rosenberg, Center for a New American Security; and Alireza Nader, RAND Corporation. Part of the Arms Control Association annual meeting. 9:45-11:00 a.m., Oct. 20, at Carnegie Endowment, Root Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1vMTI66

--"The Unaffordable Arsenal: Reducing the Costs of the Bloated U.S. Nuclear Stockpile," featuring Tom Collina, Ploughshares Fund. Part of the Arms Control Association annual meeting. 11:00-11:30 a.m., Oct. 20, at Carnegie Endowment, Root Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1vMTI66

--Des Browne, former U.K. Defense Secretary, keynote speech. Part of the Arms Control Association annual meeting. Noon-12:55 p.m., Oct. 20, at the Carnegie Endowment, Root Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1vMTI66

--"The Future of the Nonproliferation and Disarmament Regime," featuring Assistant Secretary of State Thomas Countryman and Guakhar Mukhatzhanova, Monterey Institute. Part of the Arms Control Association annual meeting. 1:00-1:30 p.m. Oct. 20, At Carnegie Endowment, Root Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1vMTI66

--"The Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy," featuring Rose Gottemoeller, Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. Oct. 21, 1:30-2:30 p.m., Weber State University, Elizabeth Hall, Room 229, Ogden, UT.” http://bit.ly/ZY1r6B

--"The Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons,” featuring Rose Gottemoeller, Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. 1:00-2:00 p.m., Oct. 22, University of Utah, Spencer Hall, Hinckely Caucus Room, 260 Central Campus Drive, Salt Lake City. http://bit.ly/1w0diMc

--"Iran And The Arab World After The Nuclear Deadline: Possible Scenarios,” featuring Mehrzad Boroujerdi, Syracuse University, Abbas Kadhim, SAIS, and Geneive Abdo, Stimson Center. 9:30-11:00am., Oct. 23, The Stimson Center, 1111 19th Street, NW, 12th Floor, Washington DC, 20036. http://bit.ly/1oeinAG

--"Debate: Should the United States Cut its Nuclear Arsenal?" Featuring Adam Mount, Council on Foreign Relations; Tom Collina, Ploughshares Fund; Matthew Kroenig, Georgetown University; and Thomas Moore, Wilson Center. Oct. 23, 6:00-8:00 p.m., George Washington University, Room B17, 1957 E St. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1w0dQSi

Dessert:

Gallows humor - The Iranians had a laugh at the United States’ expense when Secretary of State John Kerry’s plane broke down on Thursday as he sought to return to Washington after high-level talks here on Tehran’s nuclear program. “So it is not just our planes,” Mohammed Javad Zarif, Iran’s foreign minister, told a reporter from Al Monitor. Full story here. http://nyti.ms/1rHyMIq