Iranian Flexibility Needed to Reach an Effective Nuclear Deal

On the radar: Deal possible, given political will; Sanctions enforced; Nuclear spending dwarfs ISIL campaign; IAEA condemns North Korea; and Building roads with nukes.

September 29, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

Making tough choices - “With top leaders attending the United Nations General Assembly, this is the moment to break the logjam on a comprehensive deal limiting Iran’s nuclear program,” writes the The New York Times editorial board. “But so far there has been no real sign of movement, much less a breakthrough...The fault lies mainly with Iran.”

--“Iran deserves credit for honoring an interim accord that is already curbing [its uranium enrichment program]. But refusing to budge on the centrifuges invites doubts about its claims to not want a nuclear weapon.”

--“Mr. Rouhani and Mr. Zarif have brought negotiations to this point. Now Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, must decide if he has the courage to defy the forces in his country who will always see America as an enemy and let his negotiators bring a deal to a close. That would allow sanctions to be lifted and unfetter Iran to grow economically, shed its diplomatic isolation and, ideally, become a more constructive participant in regional affairs.” Read the full editorial here. http://nyti.ms/1tbgrVu

Iran needs to budge - Negotiations between the P5+1 and Iran seem to have reached an impasse over Iran’s enrichment capacity under a deal. While the P5+1 has offered creative solutions to convince Iran to reduce its current SWU capacity of around 9400, Iran is insisting that they will not accept any reductions. “If Iran’s leaders really want to get ‘yes’ on a comprehensive nuclear deal as they say the do, they will need to adjust their approach,” says Daryl Kimball in Arms Control Now.

--“With sufficient political will, its is possible to develop a formula for Iran’s uranium-enrichment capacity that significantly increases the time Iran would require to produce enough weapons-grade material for one bomb and still provide Iran with more than sufficient capacity for its civilian nuclear program over a period of 11 to 16 years–and give Iran the option to provide for substantially greater nuclear energy fuel needs if and when such needs materialize.”

--“With less than two months to go before the Nov. 24 target date to reach a deal, it is past time for Iran to move beyond its well-worn talking points and begin bargaining on realistic options on the core issue of uranium enrichment.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/YGbSdJ

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: Top advisor to President puts onus on #Iran for reaching final #nuclear deal, but hopeful for new era of relations http://ow.ly/C4f7S

Sanctions - “The Obama administration on Friday sanctioned more than two-dozen people and companies for aiding Iran’s illegal nuclear activities and violating existing sanctions against Tehran. The State Department and Treasury Department sanctions target those who helped procure materials for Iran’s nuclear program, managed the delivery of those materials, or contributed to projects the U.S. says could help Iran to build nuclear weapons,” reports Rebecca Shabad for The Hill. ” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1uwO0XO

Tweet - @cirincione: We waste $100 million each day on obsolete nuclear weapons, more than total cost of all our strikes on #ISIS so far. http://bit.ly/1rvMWjr

U.N. condemns North Korea - “Member states of the U.N. atomic watchdog condemned on Friday North Korea's efforts to develop its nuclear capabilities, including the restart of a reactor which experts say can yield atomic bomb material,” reports Reuters. “North Korea announced in April of last year that it would revive its aged five-megawatt research reactor at the Yongbyon nuclear complex, saying it was seeking a deterrent capacity.”

--“The isolated East Asian state, which quit the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1993, defends its nuclear arms program as a "treasured sword" to counter what it sees as U.S.-led hostility.” Read the full story here. http://reut.rs/1sKDpIV

Iran and the Gulf - “What are the regional perceptions of Iran's nuclear program? Are the Gulf States obsessed with breakout times and the Arak reactor, or are their concerns more political in nature? Is the United States doing enough to reassure its Gulf Allies about the nuclear negotiations with Iran? Do the Gulfees actually have an Iran nuclear strategy?” Jeffrey Lewis and Aaron Stein ask these questions and more in the latest installment of the Arms Control Wonk podcast. http://bit.ly/1uVYFYC

Tweet - @SurvivalEditors: NEW: Gary Samore of @BelferCenter on #irantalksnyc and prospects for reaching #nuclear deal by 24 Nov deadline http://bit.ly/1u66ZXI

Quick Hits:

--“Inspection finds ‘notable progress’ in Y-12 security,” by Frank Munger for the Atomic City Underground Blog. http://bit.ly/1uVWyE4

--“Nuclear weapons should be phased out of the U.S. arsenal,” writes Brian Nowicki in a letter to the Times of Trenton published Sunday. http://bit.ly/1vqZkTf

Events:

--"The Regional Implications of a deal with Iran,” with Ken Pollack, Farideh Farhi, John Garver, Amb. Chas Freeman, and Haleh Esfandiari. Sept. 29, 2:30pm at the Washington Marriott. Part of the NIAC Leadership Conference. Details here. http://bit.ly/XvQffI

--Eric Schlosser discusses his book, Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident, and the Illusion of Safety, at the World Affairs Council of Northern California. Sept. 29 in San Francisco. Details here. http://bit.ly/1qrePcW

--”Getting to a Good Iranian Nuclear Deal,” with David Albright and Olli Heinonen, moderated by Leonard Spector. September 30, 10:00am - 1:30pm at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. Located at 1400 K Street, NW, Suite 1250 http://bit.ly/1rEXXjP

--“The Iranian Nuclear Talks: A View from London.” Hosted by the European and Eurasian Studies department at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. September 30, 6:00pm - 8:00pm. Located in Room 806 - The Rome Building. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/10e5gVj

--"Nuclear Stability in South Asia," Oct. 1, Noon - 2:00pm, at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Suite 1225, 1400 K St. NW, Washington. Featuring Sumit Ganguly, Indiana University; Gaurav Kampani, University of Tulsa; David Karl, Asia Strategy Initiative; Col. David Smith, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Stephen Schwartz, Monterey Institute of International Studies. Sponsored by the Center on American and Global Security at Indiana University Bloomington. RSVP Here. http://bit.ly/1odeg2m

--“The UK Strategic Nuclear Deterrent and the Chevaline Program: An Overview,” featuring Matthew Jones, Professor of International History at the London School of Economics. Oct. 3, 12:00pm - 2:00pm, hosted by the Nuclear Proliferation International History Project at the Woodrow Wilson Center. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1qyEuvE

--Public meeting for the Commission to Review the Effectiveness of the National Energy Laboratories. Oct. 6, 10:00am - 3:30pm in Alexandria, VA. Details here. http://1.usa.gov/1udhOIV

--“Unmaking the Bomb: A Fissile Material Approach to Nuclear Disarmament and Nonproliferation,” featuring Zia Mian, Alexander Glaser and George Perkovich. October 7, 3:30 - 5:00pm at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Details here. http://ceip.org/1vpfWMd

--“Preventing Proliferation and Advancing Nuclear Disarmament.” Annual Meeting of the Arms Control Association. Oct. 20, 9:30am - 2:30pm at the Carnegie Endowment. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1uGHZnS

Dessert:

We’ve got a bomb for that - “Rising out of California's Mojave Desert are the Bristol Mountains, nearly 4,000 feet of rock blocking easy passage through the scorching desert. For decades, Route 66 and the Santa Fe Railway have had to bend south, acquiescing to the mountains' height. But in the 1960s, at the peak of atomic age, we had a plan to blast through the mountains once and for all—with nuclear bombs, of course.”

--”This nuclear plan entailed a total of 23 bombs: 22 detonated in a row to carve out passage through the mountain and one more to create a giant crater for runoff water. In all, a total of 68,000,000 cubic yards would be excavated. Including the cost of the bombs themselves, the nuclear option would cost...$8 million less than the conventional method. ‘The study group has concluded that this project is technically feasible,’ wrote a California highway engineer in a study, ‘It can be done, and it can be done safely’.” Sarah Zhang has the full story for Gizmodo. http://bit.ly/1rEQxx7