Breaking the Iranian Nuclear Deadlock

On the radar: Amb. Nicoullaud on negotiations; Nuclear cannibals; Delegation to Moscow; Sen. Inhofe talks nukes; Pentagon blasts missile defense problems; Expectations on IAEA probe; and Chernobyl at Mach 3.

September 9, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx

Bridging gaps - “A shadow of doubt is spreading over the negotiation between Iran and world powers as the gap over the key issue of the acceptable size and scope of the Iranian enrichment program slowly reveals itself as unbridgeable. The inability to solve this one issue, which exists among so many others, has resulted in the real risk that all the efforts deployed in the past year to reach a long-term agreement may have been in vain,” writes former French Ambassador to Iran François Nicoullaud.

--There have been a number of reasonable solutions put forward, but they all “turn more or less around the same principle: less centrifuges now for more later. In other words, Iran should dismantle most of its installed centrifuges in exchange for the possibility of expanding its enrichment capacity when the international community’s confidence in Iran’s peaceful intentions is restored and a real enrichment need emerges.”

--Amb. Nicoullaud offers his perspective on the elements of a potential deal and negotiating tactics for securing it. “Any agreement has to contain an element of risk and at least a minimal amount of mutual trust. Let us hope that the negotiators, on both sides, will find the inner strength to overcome their doubts and fears, while, of course, keeping their eyes wide open.” Read the full piece at Lobelog. http://bit.ly/1wf0Tnl

Budget cannibals - “The Cold War is over, but you wouldn't know it looking at the current defense budget. The U.S. is spending hundreds of billions on new weapons systems to modernize its nuclear triad—and the Defense Department won't be able to pay for it without deeper cuts in conventional forces,” writes Mark Strauss at i09. “At issue are two of the most expensive weapons in U.S. history: the Air Force's Long Range Strike bomber (LRS-B) and the Navy's replacement for its Ohio class nuclear missile submarine,” costing an estimated $90 billion and $113 billion, respectively.

--Defense budget analyst Todd Harrison “doesn't see how the Pentagon will be able to afford all of this, in addition to other programs that it has planned. The U.S. Navy, for instance, has already reported that it cannot find the funds to pay for its latest 30-year shipbuilding plans. The Air Force would have to cut other projects it deems critical for operational readiness, including a new tanker for mid-air refueling and replacing its aging fleet of cargo planes.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1tFofnM

Delegation to Moscow - “With the prospects for future cooperation on arms control hanging in the balance, the Obama administration is sending a team of senior officials to Moscow this week to try to resolve American allegations that Russia has violated a landmark nuclear accord,” reports Michael Gordon for the The New York Times. The American delegation will be led by Rose Gottemoeller, the State Department’s senior arms control official and will include experts from the National Security Council, the Pentagon and the Energy Department. http://nyti.ms/1qzzfB9

Tweet - @Gottemoeller: Respected, nonpartisan #WMD experts Frank Rose & Adam Scheinman have been waiting 416 DAYS for confirmation. 416! #ConfirmOurAmbassadors

Anti-arms control, pro-spending - Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK) is generally hostile to arms control and all treaties. In an op-ed in Foreign Policy, he writes about Russia’s violation of the INF treaty, and argues that the U.S. should respond by spending more money on homeland missile defense, more money on regional missile defense, more money on nuclear weapons and consider developing new nuclear systems - that would potentially violate the INF treaty - as a way to counter Russia’s violation of the INF treaty. Read the full piece here. http://atfp.co/1rU7OUO

In charts - The title of Sen. Inhofe’s article is “It's Time to Stop Putin's Nuclear Arms Buildup.” How is that buildup going?

--Size of Russia’s strategic nuclear arsenal in 2009: 2,787 nuclear warheads and 640 launchers. Chart http://ow.ly/i/6PiGy via http://bit.ly/1lTjlkH

--Size of Russia’s strategic nuclear arsenal in 2014: 2,300 nuclear warheads and 536 launchers. Chart http://ow.ly/i/6PiGC via http://bit.ly/1fELCal

Tweet - @MarkThompson_DC: Looking to earn some extra cash? Air Force seeking help maintaining its nuclear weapons. (doc) http://t.co/KVm0QmXxy7

Quality control - “The Pentagon's internal watchdog on Monday said it found numerous quality control problems during an investigation of the troubled ‘kill vehicle’, or warhead, built by Raytheon Co for the Boeing Co-led U.S. missile defense system,” reports Andrea Shalal for Reuters. The report found 48 different quality control issues, including “software testing, supply chain requirements and management of design changes that made the kill vehicle ‘susceptible to quality assurance failures’.”

--“The report found 15 major and 25 minor quality problems with Raytheon's handling of the program, including one case where a manufacturing operation had to be stopped because the parts kit - which had been audited - included a screw without threads.” Read the full story here. http://reut.rs/WM3yZ7

Iran PMD probe - “The International Atomic Energy Agency’s inspection team will likely have to make an assessment [on Iran] based on incomplete information and let its board of nationally-appointed governors draw definitive conclusion about the country’s past nuclear work, said the two senior international officials, who asked not to be named because the information isn’t public,” reports Jonathan Tirone for Bloomberg.

--“It isn’t realistic to expect the IAEA to provide a black-and-white assessment showing that Iran either did or did not have a nuclear-weapons program, the officials said. The IAEA will set a time to end the investigation and submit its findings to the 35-member board of governors to make a ruling.” Read the full story here. http://bloom.bg/YqJLju

Quick Hits:

--“EU official: gap with Iran over nuclear program can be narrowed,” reports Reuters. http://reut.rs/1pLsg2A

--“Deterrence Intrudes on EU Conference” by Mark Fitzpatrick for Survival. http://bit.ly/1p1X13c

--“Nuclear deal or no deal, don't expect Iran changes,” by Alireza Nader for CNN. http://cnn.it/1uH6otI

--“Iran Arrests 3 Foreigners on Suspect Trip to Iraq” reports Nasser Karimi for the Associated Press. http://abcn.ws/1CNkX4D

--“Israel's 4th Nuclear-capable Sub En Route to Home Base” reports Barbara Opall-Rome for DefenseNews. http://bit.ly/1lPUdep

Events:

--“Debate: U.S. No First Use,” Walt Slocombe and Jack Mendelsohn engage in a Project on Nuclear Issues debate. Sept. 10 from 6:00-8:00pm at CSIS. Details here. http://bit.ly/1kYCdhB

--“Ending Nuclear Explosive Testing: A Discussion with Ambassador Thomas Graham” Sept. 12 from 12:00-2:00pm at George Washington University. Details here. http://bit.ly/1oYlo1y

--“Squaring the Iranian Nuclear Circle: Defining Uranium Enrichment Capacity and Other Key Issues” Discussion featuring Kelsey Davenport, James Walsh and Daryl Kimball. Sept. 15 from 9:30-11:00am at the Carnegie Endowment. Details here. http://bit.ly/1uG7HJo

--“Nuclear Weapons Testing: History, Progress, Challenges” a Special Event to Mark International Day Against Nuclear Tests, with presentations from: Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz, Under Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller, NNSA Administrator Frank G. Klotz and Dr. Lassina Zerbo, Executive Secretary of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization. Sept. 15 from 12:30-5:00pm at the U.S. Institute of Peace. http://bit.ly/1lynIS4

--International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors meeting. Sept. 15-19 in Vienna.

--Center for Strategic and International Studies Project on Nuclear Issues presents Ambassador Bonnie Jenkins, Department of State's Coordinator for Threat Reduction Programs. Sept. 16 from 12:00-1:30pm at CSIS. Details here. http://bit.ly/W6m7Xj

--U.S. Policy in the Middle East: Present Course, Future Direction. Wendy R. Sherman, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs. Sept. 16, 6:00-7:00pm (EDT), Georgetown University, Hariri Building, Lohrfink Auditorium. http://bit.ly/1CKcGhP

--“Iranian Attitudes on Nuclear Negotiations with the P5+1" featuring Ebrahim Mohseni and Steven Kull. Sept. 17 from 10:00-11:30am at the Carnegie Endowment. Details here. http://bit.ly/1tqCz3r

--“The Contribution of the National Laboratory System to U.S. National Security” discussion with Paul Hommert, Charles McMillan and Adam Schwartz. Sept. 17th from 5:30-7:00pm at George Washington University. Details here. http://bit.ly/1q6Y9IP

--Scottish Independence Referendum, Sept. 18. http://bit.ly/1s2pX0q

--Eric Schlosser discusses his book, Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident, and the Illusion of Safety, at the World Affairs Council of Northern California. Sept. 29th in San Francisco. Details here. http://bit.ly/1qrePcW

Dessert:

Flying Chernobyl - The U.S. Air Force once designed a “locomotive-sized cruise missile [that] would loiter at high altitudes above the Soviet Union, before dropping down to treetop level and roaring across enemy territory at Mach 3. Then it would lob nuclear bombs at everything in its path.” Did we mention it was nuclear powered? Steve Weintz has the full story of the “Supersonic Low Altitude Missile” for War is Boring. http://bit.ly/1CNfZow