Revisiting NATO Nuclear Policy

September 4, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

Resource drains - “US tactical nuclear weapons detract from more useful defense initiatives,” write Hans Kristensen and Adam Mount in The Bulletin for Atomic Scientists. ”Tactical nuclear bombs in Europe are no longer useful for defense, deterrence, or assurance...The NATO Summit instead should decide to shift scarce resources to non-nuclear efforts that strengthen the alliance and actually reassure European allies.”

--“NATO is and will remain a nuclear alliance, but as the 2010 Strategic Concept emphasized, the “supreme guarantee of the security of the Allies is provided by the strategic nuclear forces” of alliance members. Those who reflexively claim that the tactical bombs are necessary to demonstrate US commitment to European security confuse the pledge NATO members make for mutual defense; it is the US strategic arsenal that makes NATO a nuclear alliance.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1xbAIBY

NATO’s nuclear missions - “In the wake of Russia’s interventions in Ukraine, NATO is forced to revisit nuclear policy and posture several years earlier than anticipated. There is little doubt now that US [tactical nuclear weapons] will remain in Europe for the foreseeable future. Calls for their withdrawal have lost much of their appeal, even in states that advocated the withdrawal or had intense debate about the wisdom of their presence in their territories,” argue Nikolai Sokov and Miles Pomper in The National Interest.

--This does not make the weapons more relevant, but does mean that the politics around them favor the status quo. “Nuclear weapons do not represent an adequate and reasonable military response to [Russian aggression], contrary to the claims that will be made by some members of the alliance. Assessments of the nature of Russian behavior will be primarily used for political ends – to justify greater reliance on nuclear weapons or argue against it. Yet, in terms of possible nuclear missions, the crisis in Ukraine has hardly changed anything.” Read the full column. http://bit.ly/Z8l0IF

NATO Summit - “Two topics unlikely to get much attention at the summit will be missile defense and nuclear weapons. And for good reason: they don’t matter. Neither provides protection against the threats concerning NATO,” writes Joe Cirincione in Defense One.

--“Leaders in Poland and the Baltic states have insisted that the limited anti-missile interceptors now deployed in Europe to counter a future long-range Iranian missile be re-directed against Russia. But it is not for fear of provoking Russia that we do not do so; it’s because they would not work. There is no missile defense system currently in existence or that could be developed in the next few decades that could defeat a determined attack by long-range missiles.”

--“The U.S. nuclear weapons deployed in NATO Europe will also get short shrift...these weapons have slipped into military irrelevancy, rarely mentioned except as a symbol.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1psM7mW

Dropping pretense? - “Mr. Obama floated several American-led efforts to deter Russia in his speech in Tallinn, from NATO’s impending ‘rapid response’ forces, to increased training missions, to ‘investing in capabilities like intelligence and surveillance and reconnaissance and missile defense.’”

--“The last was an interesting allusion, because in the past he was always careful to say that missile defense was aimed at deterring outlier states — clearly meaning Iran — rather than nuclear powers like Russia. This time, he made no such disclaimer,” writes David Sanger of the The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1AarbHD

Iran nuclear talks resume - EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton confirmed that Iran and six world powers would hold their next round of negotiations in New York on Sept. 18.

--“If there is good will and a constructive approach, we can reach a desired result before Nov. 24," IRNA quoted Iran's deputy foreign minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi as saying. Read the full story here. http://reut.rs/1vS9zm5

Tweet - @marieharf: Between US-Iran bilat happening now, P5+1 round in NY starting 9/18, and other activity around UNGA, Sept a busy month for Iran nuke talks

Want to work in London? - The Royal United Services Institute is hiring a nuclear research analyst. http://bit.ly/1unEd3U

MOX delays - “The contractor of the mixed-oxide fuel fabrication facility at Savannah River Site has quietly requested from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission a 10-year extension for construction activities,” reports Meg Mirshak for The Augusta Chronicle.

--“Cost overruns and schedule delays have led the Obama administration to slash funding for the project and propose shutting down construction to search for cheaper alternatives. Congressional support for the project, however, has backed funding for fiscal year 2015, although a budget has not been passed,” writes Mirshak. Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1waidJT

Tweet - @gottemoeller: Congrats to the Republic of Congo for ratifying the #CTBT & bringing us 1 step closer to a total ban on nuke testing. http://bit.ly/YeFf7q

Israel’s nukes - The existence of Israel’s nuclear arsenal has not been a secret for decades, but Israel’s policy of being an ambiguous nuclear power has now outlived its usefulness, argues Paul Pillar for The National Interest.

--For the Israelis, “Being more transparent...would enable Israel to demonstrate that it is a responsible nuclear power, to participate in arms control endeavors that are in Israel's interests, and to diminish one of the grounds for the international community to treat Israel as an outlaw pariah state. Greater transparency...would facilitate useful discussion and debate among Israelis themselves of issues related to ownership of [nuclear weapons].”

--The United States sacrifices its own credibility by enabling Israel’s policy. “Whatever the United States says about nuclear weapons will always be taken with a grain of salt or with some measure of disdain as long as the United States says nothing about [Israel’s nuclear weapons].” Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/1xbWCFo

Quick Hit:

--“What Young People Don't, But Should, Know About Britain's Nuclear Weapons” by Claudia Hyde for Huffington Post UK. http://huff.to/1w9vaUj

Events:

--President Obama attends the NATO summit in Wales. Sept. 4-5.

--“Iran Negotiations Update: Verification vs. Breakout Capacity” a discussion with Daryl Kimball and Stephen Rademaker, moderated by Barbara Slavin. Sept. 9 from 9:30-11:00am at The Atlantic Council. http://bit.ly/1ogX22L

--“Debate: U.S. No First Use,” Walt Slocombe and Jack Mendelsohn engage in a Project on Nuclear Issues debate. Sept. 10 from 6:00-8:00pm at CSIS. Details here. http://bit.ly/1kYCdhB

--“Nuclear Weapons Testing: History, Progress, Challenges” a Special Event to Mark International Day Against Nuclear Tests, with presentations from: Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz, Under Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller, NNSA Administrator Frank G. Klotz and Dr. Lassina Zerbo, Executive Secretary of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization. Sept. 15 from 12:30-5:00pm at the U.S. Institute of Peace. http://bit.ly/1lynIS4

--International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors meeting. Sept. 15-19 in Vienna.

--Center for Strategic and International Studies Project on Nuclear Issues presents Ambassador Bonnie Jenkins, Department of State's Coordinator for Threat Reduction Programs in the Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation. Sept. 16 from 12:00-1:30pm at CSIS. Details here. http://bit.ly/W6m7Xj

--“Iranian Attitudes on Nuclear Negotiations with the P5+1" featuring Ebrahim Mohseni and Steven Kull. Sept. 17 from 10:00-11:30am at the Carnegie Endowment. Details here. http://bit.ly/1tqCz3r