Arak Compromise Bodes Well for Iran Deal

April 23, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

Cautious optimism - “As the Iran nuclear talks reach roughly the halfway point in the six-month timetable for negotiating a comprehensive agreement, both sides report slow, steady progress in closing gaps — but no deal yet,” writes David Ignatius for The Washington Post. “A positive sign was a tentative plan floated this month to reduce the threat posed by Iran’s heavy-water reactor under construction at Arak. When I talked in Tehran with Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in December, Arak appeared to be a deal-breaker. But negotiators seem to have found what they like to call a ‘win-win’ solution.’”

--“The Arak compromise formula was outlined recently in the journal Arms Control Today. It proposes feeding the reactor with low-enriched fuel and operating it at lower power. The output would be more of the medical isotopes Iran says it needs and much less of the plutonium that the West fears could fuel a bomb… The trickiest remaining problem is limiting Iranian enrichment to a level consistent with a civilian nuclear program. The Geneva agreement affirmed Iran’s ‘right to nuclear energy for peaceful purposes,’ including a ‘mutually defined enrichment program with practical limits and transparency measures.’ But what will such language mean in practice? Iran currently has 19,000 centrifuges; how many would have to be mothballed? Negotiators will be focused on such highly technical calculations over the next three months, while the clock ticks. The deeper question is whether Khamenei’s Iran is really ready for fundamental accommodation with the West.” Read the full piece here. http://wapo.st/1noFJl1

Tweet - @IranFactFile: What evidence diplomacy with Iran is making US and Israel safer? check out the latest numbers form the @iaeaorg http://www.iranfactfile.org/2014/02/08/numbers/

To test - “Pyongyang appears to be readying a nuclear test that may be carried out when President Obama visits the region later this week, South Korea says.” South Korean defense ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok told reporters that, "Our military is currently detecting a lot of activity in and around the Punggye-ri nuclear test site." The spokesman also noted that North Korea could also “be just preparing a ruse to heighten tensions in the build-up to Obama's two-day visit to South Korea, which begins on Friday.” Read the full story from here. http://bit.ly/1k6jj4u

Or not to test - “North Korea is unlikely to be ready to stage a nuclear test timed to coincide with U.S. President Barack Obama's visit to Asia, a respected think tank said on Wednesday based on its assessment of satellite imagery.” 38North, a part of Johns Hopkins University, “said that while there had been a pickup in activity, there were few signs of an imminent test.” David Chance has the full story in Reuters. http://reut.rs/PtiCXG

Missile delay - “The Pentagon is postponing plans to request congressional approval for a multiyear production contract for a new missile intended for fielding in Romania,” Global Security Newswire reports. “The Standard Missile 3 Block 1B is slated to be deployed in Romania next year as part of the Obama administration's ‘phased adaptive approach’ for European missile defense. Additionally, sea-based variants of the interceptor, which is designed to counter short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, are to be fielded on warships based in the Mediterranean. However, the Defense Department's Missile Defense Agency has determined the antimissile technology has not yet fulfilled all of the requirements to warrant a multiyear production order worth $3 billion to producer Raytheon.”

--“MDA spokesman Rick Lehner, in an email to the newsletter, said the agency still needs to show evidence of a consistent need for the antimissile technology, a stable design, reliable funding, a realistic price projection and the probability of significant savings compared to a yearly acquisition order. The Pentagon is deferring until fiscal 2016 any effort to seek congressional authorization for a multiyear contract on the interceptor, according to Inside Defense.” Read the full article here. http://bit.ly/1jAypMl

India’s missile defenses - “In a missile defense test planned for next week, India will attempt its longest-range intercept yet of a ballistic target,” Global Security Newswire reports. “Indian Defense Research and Development Organization Director General Avinash Chander told reporters the test from Wheeler Island would be against targets approximately 62 miles away… India ultimately hopes to develop the capability to intercept ballistic missiles with ranges in excess of 1,240 miles… Meanwhile, across India's western border, Pakistan on Tuesday carried out a successful trial launch of its Hatf 3 nuclear-capable missile… The Hatf 3 has a range of 180 miles and can carry either atomic or conventional payloads.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1tC9gJn

Tweet - @BulletinAtomic: Nuclear security systems at Chinese sites have not been subject to real-life, real-world tests ow.ly/w2SLy

Get back to us on that - “South Korean President Park Geun Hye sought China’s help in dissuading North Korea from any nuclear test, after signs of preparations at the North’s test site days before U.S. President Barack Obama visits Seoul,” reports Andrew Davis for Bloomberg. “Park discussed the activity at the Punggye-ri site with Chinese President Xi Jinping over the phone and asked him to try to persuade Kim Jong Un’s regime not to conduct a test… Convincing North Korea to renounce its nuclear program is a centerpiece of U.S. policy in Asia, and Obama will discuss the issue this week when he meets separately with Park and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan, which is within range of the North’s ballistic missiles. China, North Korea’s main ally, has tried to revive international talks aimed at convincing the country to abandon its nuclear program in return for aid.” Full story here. http://bloom.bg/1hiwteA

Quick-hits:

--“UN Committee Takes No Action on Iran Envoy Dispute” by Edith Lederer for AP. http://abcn.ws/1gQY9mX

--“White House Warily Watching N. Korea Nuke Activity Ahead of Obama Tour of Asia” by Dave Boyer in The Washington Times. http://bit.ly/1tC6svR

--“Report: Feds Sharing Less Info on Hotspot WMDs with Congress” by Rachel Oswald in Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/1lF56zc

Events:

--“Making a Difference: Faith Communities Speak to the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons.” Discussion with Andrew Kanter, Daryl Kimball, and eight other speakers. April 24 from 9:30-4:00 at the U.S. Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Ave., NW, Washington. http://conta.cc/1ssfg70

--“Preparing for Deep Cuts: Options for Enhancing Euro-Atlantic and International Security.” Discussion with Ulrich Kuehn, Götz Neuneck, Eugene Miasnikov, and Greg Thielmann; moderated by Steven Pifer. April 28 from 10:00-11:30 at The Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1hOGcd1

--“The United States and Iran: Can Diplomacy Prevent an Iranian Bomb?” Discussion with former Amb. Thomas Pickering and Shaul Bakhash. April 28 from 6:00-7:15 at American University, Abramson Family Founders Room, 4400 Massachusetts Ave., NW, Washington. RSVP here. http://conta.cc/1eEMAyC