Concern and Caution on Syria and Sarin

On the radar: Assessing the reports; Feinstein displeased on B61 costs, nonpro cuts; Recalibrating Iran strategy; Time to get real on missile defense; and Photos from life in the exclusion zone.

Date | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

What happened - The U.S. intelligence community now assesses “with varying degrees of confidence that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons on a small scale in Syria, specifically the chemical agent sarin. This assessment is based on physiological samples,” according to a letter from the White House to Senators Levin and McCain.

--This assessment is based on blood samples taken from multiple people in Syria that tested positive for exposure to the nerve agent Sarin. The administration is seeking further investigation into the claim. Noah Shachtman and Spencer Ackerman at Danger Room have the story. http://bit.ly/11ZHO7C

If you only read one thing - Caution is important regarding the claims of small-scale exposure to sarin gas in Syria, says Jeffrey Lewis in Arms Control Wonk. He suggests that the standard of evidence for the claim ought to be high - detailed information about a chemical attack and the victims of it - to make sure the sarin exposure was in fact from an attack.

--Reading the Obama administration's letter on the sarin exposure, Lewis notes that “The samples show sarin exposure, but they are not linked to specific, credible events...we don’t have multiple victims in a single use, as might be expected if the Syrians gassed a military unit or a local community.” http://bit.ly/11Ib3yg

Perspective - "Because the stakes are so high, the administration is not going to accept that chemical weapons were used even on a small scale unless there is very conclusive evidence...There's a very high risk that there will be more chemical weapons use...The military options are really horrendous," said former White House official Gary Samore on the news out of Syria. Kevin Baron at Foreign Policy has the full story. http://atfp.co/13zGR8C

Next steps - “The international community must unite in efforts to achieve a full investigation of the evidence. In particular, the UN Security Council should meet to outline a course of action to prevent any further use of chemical weapons, including ensuring that the Syrian Government permits and facilitates access by the [Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons] team the UN Secretary General has called on to conduct the investigation,” write Daryl Kimball, Greg Theilmann and Kelsey Davenport at Arms Control Now. http://bit.ly/11Ieh4W

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The bomb in the budget - Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) on Wednesday “suggested the Obama administration should consider scaling back nuclear weapons updates rather than cut money from nonproliferation programs in order to pay for them, but stopped short of threatening to mandate such a change through appropriations legislation,” reports Douglas Guarino in Global Security Newswire.

--Sen. Feinstein put particular attention on the program to build a new B61 nuclear bomb - currently estimated to cost $10.4 billion. Sen. Feinstein asked in a budget hearing why the National Nuclear Security Administration did not pursue a simple $1.5 maintenance option for the bombs. Full story here. http://bit.ly/ZMzR8t

Next steps, new approach - Obstacles to a deal with Iran over its nuclear program are mounting. At the same time, “bipartisan support is building in Washington for a new approach to break the stalemate,” writes Joe Cirincione in The Interdependent. Two recently released reports, one from the Iran Project the other from the Atlantic Council, recommend a rebalancing of the U.S. approach towards Iran and stress the importance of a more diplomatically-focused strategy.

--Both reports recommend the U.S. offer a longer-term plan which outlines a step-by-step process for sanctions relief in exchange for limits on Iran’s program. “Together, the two studies...offer practical recommendations for what the initial and follow-on deals could be and for how the Obama administration could potentially mobilize its bureaucracy and solidify the public support needed to achieve them,” writes Cirincione. Full article here. http://owl.li/ksl4z

Quotes - “I was in the [State] Department when they kept talking about the so-called two-track policy, and it was clear the whole thing was nonsense, there never were two tracks...The sanctions took all the air out of the room. It was 95 percent sanctions, and that was on a good day,” said John Limbert, former US deputy assistant secretary of state for Iran from 2009 to 2010.

--“It is time for the administration to make the sweat equity investment in negotiations equal to what it has done on sanctions and the potential to use military force,” said Amb. Thomas Pickering. Ambassadors Pickering and Limbert are signers of the Iran Porject report mentioned above. Scott Peterson writes about the report’s influence at The Christian Science Monitor. http://bit.ly/Y1VVLE

Report - “Increasing Transparency of Nuclear-warhead and Fissile-material Stocks as a Step toward Disarmament” Proposals for the NPT PrepCom from the International Panel on Fissile Materials. April 24, 2013. (pdf) http://bit.ly/11JM6RK

Reality check - In an effort to appear strong on national security and counter threats from North Korea and Iran, the administration has invested in “a flock of failed initiatives, not the least of which is the European Phased Adaptive Approach Phase IV, and its keystone ICBM interceptor.” These programs have set “Moscow’s hair on fire,” have proven largely ineffective, and are increasingly expensive at a time when Pentagon budgets are shrinking. Its time to “get realistic” writes Drew Russell in Forbes. Full article here. http://owl.li/ksgWN

Tweet - @carnegienpp: We are seeking a full-time program assistant, apply here: http://t.co/sZgcdPp4oq

Photos - Today marks the 27th anniversary of the nuclear disaster in Chernobyl, Ukraine. Award-winning Ukrainian photographer Arthur Bondar commemorates the anniversary with photos of “villages and people living near the exclusion zone,” taken over the past five years. The Huffington Post has the photo gallery.http://owl.li/ksoKu

Obituary - “George Bunn, who helped negotiate the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, dies at 87.” From The Washington Post.

--The article recalls that George was on a ship bound for Japan in August 1945, when the U.S. dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. “He was convinced that the atomic bomb saved his life...Yet he devoted most of the rest of his life to the effort to bring the fearsome power of nuclear weapons under international control,” said his son Matthew Bunn, an arms control specialist at Harvard University. Read more here. http://wapo.st/ZRJqzI

Events:

--”The Media & Iran’s Nuclear Program: An analysis of U.S. and U.K. coverage, 2009-2012” Jonas Siegal and Saranaz Barforoush present a new study, followed by discussion with John Steinbruner, Susan Moeller, Reza Marashi and Walter Pincus. April 29th from 9:00-10:30am at the Woodrow Wilson Center. http://bit.ly/13qzY9r

--”Dealing With North Korea’s Increased Belligerence.” Gordon Flake, Paul Haenle, Jin Canrong, Zhang Chuanjie, and Zhu Feng. April 29 12:00-2:200 p.m. @ Carnegie. Details here. http://owl.li/kl29g

--”Reducing Global Weapons Dangers: Bolstering the NPT and Building the New ATT Regime.” Ellen Tauscher, Leon Sigal, Joel Wit, Fabrice Barielle, Rachel Stohl, Paul O’Brien. May 6, 9:00am-1:30pm @ Carnegie, Root Room. Details Here. http://owl.li/kotkn