Escalation and Rhetoric on the Korean Peninsula

On the radar: Calming the crisis; Exchanging threats; How wars begin; New strategy for Iran; New START data; View from Tehran; Modernizing US-European security; and the South Asian arms race.

April 4, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Engagement, not escalation - “There’s no guarantee any strategy will be successful, but military escalation is no answer either,” writes The New York Times in an editorial. “The Obama administration was prudent to bolster its forces in the region. There are also sound reasons to reassure South Korea and Japan that America’s defense commitments remain firm... But, it's clearly time to find ways to calm the crisis.” Full editorial here. http://owl.li/jKidR

Exchanging threats - North Korea’s recent bellicose rhetoric directed at the U.S. might be intended as “a warning that the United States has a stake in restraining South Korea,” notes Jeffrey Lewis at Foreign Policy in a discussion of recent threats exchanged on the Korean Peninsula. It’s unclear if such a message of restraint is getting through, as all sides involved appear to be heightening military readiness. http://atfp.co/10zerd9

Missteps and war - The potential for miscalculation to trigger a second Korean War is high, writes Patrick Cronin in a hypothetical description of how war on the Korean Peninsula could start. Full description of a tit-for-tat escalation into war here. http://atfp.co/ZBMfDE

Tweet - @OswaldRachel: #NorthKorea seen moving intermediate-range missile to coast; U.S. decides to tone down displays of military force. http://bit.ly/16spQx4

THADD to Guam - If the Pentagon, as announced yesterday, deploys a THAAD missile defense battery to guam, it would be “the first operational deployment of a THAAD battery away from Fort Bliss.” George Lewis at Mostly Missile Defense has the story. http://bit.ly/12ly2yz

N. Korean reactor work - “Satellite Images Show New Construction at North Korea’s Plutonium Production Reactor; Rapid Restart?” by Nick Hansen and Jeffrey Lewis at 38 North. http://bit.ly/YV7u7v

Strategy with Iran - A new report from the Atlantic Council’s Iran Task Force, led by Amb. Stuart Eizenstat, “recommends a long-term strategy that offers the Iranian government a face-saving exit from the nuclear crisis and seeks to lay the groundwork for better relations with the Iranian people.”

--Recommendations: Stop and reverse Iran’s nuclear progress through negotiations; designate US and private channels for payment of humanitarian, educational and public diplomacy-related transactions; Diminish Iran’s ability to harm US interests in the region; and Reorganize US diplomacy with Iran.

--Full report: ”Time to Move from Tactics to Strategy on Iran” by the Iran Task Force of the Atlantic Council. (pdf) http://bit.ly/10e0anc

Welcome back to Early Warning - After a brief 8-day hiatus, Early Warning now returns to its regular, daily schedule.

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New START data - The U.S. is slowly implementing the nuclear reductions required under New START while Russia, already beneath treaty ceilings, has more or less stalled further reductions. Hans Kristensen at the Federation of American Scientists looks at the latest nuclear data. http://bit.ly/10uVWYg

--Data: As of March 1, 2013, the U.S. had 1,654 warheads deployed on 792 strategic delivery vehicles. Russia had 1,480 warheads deployed on 492 strategic delivery vehicles. From the State Dept. http://1.usa.gov/XfMk3t

Tone-setting - “Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili sounded a defiant note ahead of a new round of talks with world powers in Kazakhstan, saying on Thursday they had to recognise Iran's right to enrich uranium to see any breakthrough,” reports Reuters. http://reut.rs/ZayBHF

Tweet - @ColinKahl: Plot twist: if Iranian elec unrest emerges, it could arise from Ahmadinejad, guy opposition opposed last time. http://bit.ly/16z48cu

Statesmen on security -”Security policies in the Euro-Atlantic region — an area that includes six of the world’s 10 largest economies, four of the five declared nuclear weapon states, and more than 95 percent of global nuclear inventories — are dangerously out of date and demand urgent attention,” write Des Browne, Wolfgang Ischinger, Igor Ivanov and Sam Nunn in The New York Times.

--Cold War thinking comes with a hefty price tag: The U.S. is set to “build new nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines and strategic bombers at a cost of more than $400 billion, and to extend the life of nuclear weapons deployed in Europe at a cost of $10 billion. Russia reportedly plans to spend 1.9 trillion rubles, or $61 billion, over the next decade to modernize its strategic nuclear forces, while the [UK] estimates the cost of Trident replacement at £25 billion, or $38 billion.”

--Recommendations: “get out from under Cold War-era strategies and tactics that are ill-suited to the real threats we face...reduce the role of nuclear weapons as an essential part of any nation’s overall security posture...This should include practical steps to increase decision time and crisis stability for leaders, in particular with respect to U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear forces,” the four former statesmen write. Full article here. http://owl.li/jK6ii

Report - “Building Mutual Security in the Euro-Atlantic Region” by Des Browne, Wolfgang Ischinger, Igor Ivanov, Sam Nunn. Full report here (pdf). http://owl.li/jK6s6

Security on the subcontinent - The nuclear race between India and Pakistan is “inherently unstable,” and could ultimately prove dangerous if steps are not taken to mitigate the instability writes Michael Krepon in The International Herald Tribune.

--“The safest route to reduce nuclear dangers on the subcontinent is through concerted efforts to improve relations between Pakistan and India. The surest way to do so is by greatly increasing cross-border trade,” writes Krepon. Full article here. http://owl.li/jKfT9

Tweet - @peterson__scott: My report: How much is a nuclear program worth? For #Iran, well over $100 billion. http://t.co/q1YXTMjHTw

While we were away - Analysis and commentary from last week:

--”Will Russia Take ‘Yes’ for an Answer?” by Amb. Steven Pifer in The International Herald Tribune. http://nyti.ms/13UjZor

--”Iran’s Nuclear Odyssey: Costs and Risks” by Ali Vaez and Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. (pdf) http://owl.li/jK3ZO

--”Timeline of recent events in North Korean tensions” in The Sacramento Bee. http://owl.li/jK4pU

--”It’s Not a Hermit Kingdom, and 4 Other Myths About North Korea” by Joel Wit and Jenny Town in The Atlantic. http://owl.li/jK5NA

--”GAO: GMD National Missile Defense Program Costs To Exceed $40 Billion” by George Lewis at Mostly Missile Defense. http://bit.ly/17f55bm

--”The High Cost of War with Iran” by Geoffrey Kemp and John Allen Gay in The National Interest. http://bit.ly/10yUUtp

--”Why Sanctions On Iran Aren’t Working” by Bijan Khajehpour, Reza Marashi, & Trita Parsi, National Iranian American Council. (pdf) http://owl.li/jKoth

--”China Can Help Cut Nukes” by Richard Weitz in The Moscow Times. http://bit.ly/13UjMl7

--”Background Briefing on Upcoming P5+1 Talks in Almaty, Kazakhstan” from the State Department. http://1.usa.gov/ZatXJK

Events:

--April 5: Fourth anniversary of President Obama’s Prague speech on nuclear weapons.

--April 5-6: P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, UK and US) continue nuclear talks with Iran in Almaty, Kazakhstan.

--North America Nuclear Policy Conference, International Network of Emerging Nuclear Specialists, April 6-7. Details here. http://owl.li/jKlFk

--Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference. April 8-9 @ Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW. Details here. http://owl.li/jKm30

--”Responsibility Beyond Rules: Leadership for a Secure Nuclear Future,” April 10 10:00 am at the Carnegie Endowment. Details here. http://owl.li/jKmMX