Modern Strategy Needs Fewer Nuclear Weapons

On the radar: Cut numbers, costs; Economic of war and sanctions; Security stalled in Senate; Democracy and the bomb; Missile defense meeting budget reality; the Burma model; and Atomic thunderstorms.

November 16th, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Marianne Nari Fisher

Cut numbers, costs - As the U.S. rethinks its defense strategy and budgets, it should “reduce the size of its nuclear forces as rapidly as possible, preferably through a new treaty with Russia, and make commensurate reductions in planned nuclear modernization programs,” according to a new report from the Defense Advisory Committee led by Stimson.

--”The number of weapons could be reduced if the perceived requirements for deterrence were assessed on the basis of contemporary international relationships, on current Russian economic and military capabilities, on the nature of Russian society, and/or by taking advantage of the greater accuracy of modern weapons to cut back the redundancy in targeting.

--”If significant reductions were made in the size of US nuclear forces, it also would be possible to reduce and delay the costly modernization program now planned for both the nuclear infrastructure and for delivery systems.”

--Signers: Barry Blechman, Gordon Adams, Graham Allison, Michael Bayer, Gen. B.B. Bell, Richard Betts, Amb. Lincoln Bloomfield, Amb. Richard Burt, Gen. James Cartwright, Lt. Gen. Daniel Christman, Lt. Gen. David Deptula, Leslie Gelb, Jessica Matthews, Adm. Bill Owens, and Anne-Marie Slaughter. Full report available here. http://bit.ly/WeeBYv

Costs of Iran policy - “An all-out U.S. war with Iran, including an invasion by American troops, would cost the global economy close to $2 trillion in the first three months and could go as high as $3 trillion, according to a Washington think tank,” writes Jennifer Rizzo at CNN’s Security Clearance.

--Such a scenario is unlikely, but it’s useful to weigh the global economic costs. Other scenarios considered by the report: more sanctions ($64 billion), an economic blockade ($325 billion), targeted strikes ($713 billion), a bombing campaign ($1 trillion), and de-escalation ($60 billion). http://bit.ly/ZHhlxs

--Full report here: ”Sanctions, Military Strikes, and Other Potential Actions Against Iran” by Charles Blair and Mark Jansson of the Federation of American Scientists. (pdf) http://bit.ly/ZHhlxs

Welcome to Early Warning - Subscribe to our morning email or follow us on twitter.

--Have a tip? Email earlywarning@ploughshares.org. Want to support this work? Click here.

Event - “Less Is Better: Nuclear Restraint at Low Numbers” with James Acton, Malcolm Chalmers and Joan Rohlfing. November 27th from 3:30-6:00 at Carnegie. Details and RSVP here. http://bit.ly/T6bTlD

Nuclear security stalled - A bipartisan letter from House leaders urges the Senate to pass legislation that would bring the U.S. in line with two international agreements that would help prevent nuclear terrorism. “We believe enactment of this legislation provides an opportunity for the House and Senate to put aside partisan differences and reach across party lines in the interest of America’s national security,” says the letter.

--Signers include Judiciary Committee Chairman Lamar Smith (R-TX), Rep. James Sensenbrenner (R-WI), Ranking Member John Conyers (D-MI) and Rep. Robert Scott (D-VA). http://bit.ly/T01a9r

Tweet - @MarkeyMemo : The $640 Billion Question via @Plough_Shares Fund http://bit.ly/Swxu2E #640BQuestion #FiscalCliff

Democracy and the bomb - Nuclear issues were overlooked by the presidential campaigns, and as a result Americans lost an opportunity to engage with their leaders in a debate over nuclear strategy, writes Ploughshares Fund Board member Kennette Benedict in The Bulletin.

--"Citizens in the United States and Russia, in particular, should claim their rightful places in the nuclear discussion, reignite their democracies, and work with each other and with President Obama and President Vladimir Putin to once and for all get rid of nuclear weapons," Benedict concludes. http://bit.ly/ZGYKSh

Flawed and expensive - The looming fiscal cliff is an opportunity to rethink the NATO missile defense program, which is both technically flawed and unreasonably expensive, writes Yousaf Butt in the CS Monitor.

-- "Pushing this expensive dead-end project over the fiscal cliff will save huge amounts of money that could be put to better use in actually defending the nation," and also improve U.S.-Russia cooperation on key global security issues, writes Butt. http://bit.ly/XcyJMg

Myanmar path for DPRK - North Korea could “demonstrate a seriousness of purpose with respect to meeting their stated goal of denuclearization” in order to merit “the kind of economic benefits and presidential attention that Myanmar has garnered recently from Washington,” said National Security Adviser Tom Donilon.

--Donilon reiterated it is “a path that, if the North Koreans would address the nuclear issue, would be available to them. And we've said that from the outset. And I think it is an important example for them to contemplate.” Global Security Newswire has the story. http://bit.ly/Stprnp

Report - “Aiding the Physics Research Center’s Overseas Procurements: Role of Applied Science Co. and Akebono Boeki Co.” by David Albright and Andrew Ortendahl of the Institute for Science and International Security. (pdf) http://bit.ly/T5BFqk

China and arms control - There are two simple steps Congress can take to constrain growth of China’s nuclear arsenal: ratifying CTBT and pushing for a fissile material cutoff treaty. Gregory Kulacki explains the value of these treaties with regard to China and debunks several nuclear claims from the recent US-China Economic and Security Review Commission. Full post at All Things Nuclear. http://bit.ly/QKHtGq

What does an ICBM launch look like? - Bright. Then kind of blurry. Gizmodo has the video of this week’s Minuteman III test launch at Vandenberg Air Force Base. http://bit.ly/UKj0gc

The election and foreign policy - The election last week showed that American voters trusted President Obama’s foreign policies, writes Joel Rubin in The Jewish Chronicle.

--”The first thing that the president should do is ignore the critics who argue that he needs to start a war with Iran to prevent its acquisition of a nuclear weapon, who argue that he should not pursue Middle East peace, and who argue that he should reject the changes sweeping the Arab world.” http://bit.ly/TI03cY

Raining radiation - The discovery that nuclear explosions can alter weather conditions had some physicists considering nuclear-induced thunderstorms as a way to amplify radiation spread. Alex Wellerstein at Restricted Data has the story of the nuclear nightmare that might have been. http://bit.ly/RH5FGM