U.S. Can Take Independent Action to Cut Arsenal

U.S. doesn’t need that many nukes - “How are we going to get the stalled nuclear disarmament process moving forward once again? Answering the challenge is particularly problematic because it requires navigating between the national security fears of U.S. political leaders and the apparent disinterest in further nuclear disarmament on the part of the Russian government. Even so, a case can be made for cutting back the deployed U.S. nuclear arsenal,” writes Lawrence Wittner for The Asia-Pacific Journal. “We are living in circumstances of enormous danger for, as long as nuclear weapons exist, there is a great likelihood that they will eventually be used.”

--“Although unilateral action to reduce nuclear dangers might sound frightening, it has been taken numerous times before [by Soviet Union and U.S.] with no adverse consequences… Obviously, an international treaty banning and destroying nuclear weapons, with strict international enforcement, would be the best and safest way to abolish the specter of nuclear annihilation that has haunted the world since 1945. But that need not preclude other useful actions from taking place.” Full story here http://bit.ly/2fin7DD

Experts discuss nuclear challenges for next POTUS- Elise Labott, Joe Cirincione, Steven Pifer and Gary Samore featured on NPR’s On Point hosted by Tom Ashbrook. The guests discussed the main nuclear problems facing the next President and how to fix them. Audio link here. http://wbur.fm/2fczyk5

Tweet - @GlobalZero: If US, @POTUS want to right the ship with Russia, @PutinRF_Eng, bilateral dialogue is needed - not saber rattling. http://n.pr/2f8w54P

B61 just got more expensive - “A new Energy Department assessment of the program to rebuild the B61 nuclear gravity bomb projects the cost at about $8.3 billion, but an independent department estimate identified risk factors that could lead to cost increases and schedule delays,” writes Kingston Reif for Arms Control Today. “The official estimate by the semiautonomous National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)... includes $7.6 billion in direct funding for the B61 life extension program and $648 million in funding supported through other agency programs.”

--“In an Oct. 18 statement to Arms Control Today, Israeli said the estimate ‘is within the range’ of the last formal estimate prepared by the NNSA in 2013, which put the total cost of the program at $8.1 billion... But the NNSA’s newly created Office of Cost Estimating and Program Evaluation has raised concerns about meeting that cost and timetable. The independent office’s assessment ‘highlighted potential cost and schedule risks,’ which the B61 program office is ‘monitoring and mitigating,’ according to Israeli.” Full breakdown of the costs here. http://bit.ly/2e5oRCB

U.S. should care about ban treaty - “If a treaty rises in the United Nations and US media don’t notice, does the treaty make a difference?” writes Joe Cirincione for The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist. On October 27, 2016, “the First Committee of the UN agreed ‘to convene in 2017 a United Nations conference to negotiate a legally binding instrument to prohibit nuclear weapons’... Yet no major US paper covered the vote. Why not?”

--“First, the media doesn’t care much about anything that happens in the United Nations. If a US president isn’t speaking, or the vote doesn’t involve Israel, or there isn’t a showdown in the Security Council, there is a media vacuum… Second, many reporters take their cue from US officials… Third, and this may be the most important, we have our heads in the sand when it comes to nuclear dangers.” Fortunately, “this is not how most of the world sees it.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/2ffwB4y

Tweet - @Livableworld: How would #nuclearweapons affect the climate? What's #nuclear winter? Check out the answers here http://huff.to/2fHRHct

Japan’s missed opportunity - “Japan’s vote at the United Nations last week to oppose a resolution to start talks on a treaty outlawing nuclear weapons is regrettable. It contradicts the nation’s long-standing call for the elimination of such weapons as the sole country to have suffered nuclear attacks,” writes The Japan Times. “Tokyo’s latest move — which reflects the government’s reliance on the U.S. nuclear umbrella for the nation’s security — not only runs counter to the wishes of survivors of the 1945 Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombings but will weaken its voice in international efforts to rid the world of nuclear arms.”

--“Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida said [the ban treaty] did not suit Japan’s pursuit of a nuclear weapons-free world through cumulative concrete and practical measures and that negotiating a treaty... when security in Northeast Asia is confronted with North Korea’s nuclear and missile development and threats from China would deepen a schism between the haves and have-nots... It would be logical to assume that Japanese officials believed they cannot resist [U.S.] pressures given Japan’s dependence on the U.S. nuclear umbrella. But did it not occur to them that opposing the resolution would deprive Japan of moral credibility in its repeated calls for creating a nuclear weapons-free world.” Full editorial here. http://bit.ly/2e5nBPW

Iran deal boosts Iranian economy - “It has been almost a year since the nuclear deal between Iran and Western powers went into effect. Meant primarily to curtail Iran’s uranium enrichment program, the deal also paved a path to the opening of Iran’s doors to the global economy,” writes Max Bearak and Aaron Steckelberg for The Washington Post. “Many, especially in Iran, imagined an ensuing gold rush. And while that hasn’t exactly come to pass, there are some major indications that Iran is able to interact more and more with the rest of the world.”

--“International air traffic to and from Iran is booming... Earlier U.S. sanctions had prohibited planes with American-made parts from flying to Iran, precluding many airlines from flying there. Both Boeing and Airbus ... use American parts. Not only can those planes fly to Iran now, but the state-owned flag-carrier, Iran Air, inked deals worth tens of billions of dollars this summer with both companies to buy hundreds of planes.” Ray Takeyh, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, added, “Iran went from a marginalized and difficult place in the world economy in 2013 to a place of growth.” Full article here. http://wapo.st/2f8MABv

Dealing with waste from nuclear weapons - “The fateful explosion that shut down America’s only permanent nuclear-waste storage site happened on Valentine’s Day 2014. The facility, called the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant or WIPP, is a series of salt caverns 2,000 feet below the New Mexican desert. Radioactive waste from U.S.’s nuclear weapons comes to WIPP, drum by drum, to be entombed underground,” writes Sarah Zhang for The Atlantic. “WIPP has been closed for cleanup since the accident, and it’s since blown past one deadline to reopen. The Department of Energy, which operates the plant, is now working to ready WIPP by December 2016.”

--“In anticipation of WIPP resuming operations, the energy department recently filed for a permit to build temporary storage aboveground. The plan would add several concrete vaults to hold the waste drums, designed to be tornado and earthquake proof… Adding more storage also adds another layer of complexity to the handling of nuclear waste. ‘Workers have to handle these containers more, so you have more risk of accidental release,’ says Don Hancock, director of the nuclear waste safety program at the Southwest Research and Information Center and a longtime critic of WIPP. Hancock would prefer the waste never come to WIPP, staying put at the locations where it already is.” Full story here. http://theatln.tc/2fcABmp

Tweet - @RANDCorporation: What does the next administration need to know about the threat of #NorthKorea's rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal? http://bit.ly/2e5AV6T

Chinese vs. North Korean nuke development - “North Korea’s rapid nuclear and missile development has intensified the debate over the efficacy of US and South Korean policies toward Pyongyang. Comparing North Korea’s weapons development to China’s own arms activities can contextualize these discussions, in part by highlighting the remarkable speed with which North Korea has accomplished its recent technical milestones. Moreover, two other considerations drive this comparison: allegations of recent Chinese technical assistance to the North and their common geopolitical interests,” writes Charles Lee for 38 North.

--“North Korea’s core weapons capabilities are reaching an apex. Even more concerning is the fact that North Korea’s relentless trial-and-error—not Chinese technical assistance—is principally generating its positive momentum. For policymakers in Washington and Seoul, the comparative analysis of Chinese and North Korean weapons development highlights the urgency of reevaluating North Korea policy before it has perfected its nuclear and missile technologies.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/2ff4sH1

North Korea to launch more missile tests - “Press reports are saying that North Korea is likely to try another test launch in the next few days of a new missile it is developing. But there is some controversy about which missile that may be,” writes David Wright for Union of Concerned Scientists. “Based on reports from two recent failed tests, most people assume the upcoming test will be of the intermediate-range Musudan missile, which North Korea has tested either six or eight times this year. But others see evidence that suggests it could be the mysterious long-range KN-08 missile.”

--“[It’s] possible, of course, that Pyongyang would like to make a splash during the late days of the US election campaign, thinking it would increase the visibility of a successful test. That would set a testing schedule that was not driven by a step-by-step development methodology. If that was North Korea’s motivation, it might want to launch a missile it had some reason to believe would succeed, which would suggest another Musudan test rather than a KN-08. On the other hand, if North Korea was going for maximum shock value—which a KN-08 launch would deliver—it might decide to try a Hail-Mary approach.” Full analysis here. http://bit.ly/2fg4fVD

See also - “U.S. officials say North Korea preparing missile launch: report,” by Doina Chiacu for Reuters. http://reut.rs/2f4W1Po

Quick Hits:

--“Russia holds large-scale nuclear war games,” by Bill Gertz for The Washington Times. --“Japan, India to sign energy pact on condition of no nuclear tests,” published by The Asahi Shimbun. http://bit.ly/2em1Jht

--“Nuclear South Asia: A Guide to India, Pakistan, and the Bomb,” free online course offered by the Stimson Center. http://bit.ly/2fHSdag

Events:

--“Balancing a New Relationship with Iran: Security and Insecurity in the Wake of the Nuclear Deal,” a panel featuring Ambassador Lincoln Bloomfield, Jr., Richard Burchill (Moderator), Laicie Heeley, David Albright and Mark Fitzpatrick, hosted by The Stimson Center. November 10, 10:30am-12:00pm at 1211 Connecticut Ave NW, 8th Fl, Washington, D.C. 20036. Details here. http://bit.ly/2fAKI55

--“Maximizing the Opening with Iran: How the Next President Can Secure American Interests in the Middle East,” a panel featuring Andrew Bacevich, Reza Marashi, John Mearsheimer, Sanam Anderlini, and Steve Clemons (moderator), hosted by NIAC and The Stimson Center. November 16, 9:45AM - 11:15AM, at Stimson Center – Joint Conference Room A/B, 1211 Connecticut Ave NW, 8th Fl, Washington, D.C. 20036. Details & RSVP here. https://goo.gl/2fVM2k

--“What to Do about Russia’s Rising Profile in the Middle East,” a conversation featuring Anna Borshchevskaya, Thomas Cunningham, Alireza Nader, Aaron Stein and Barbara Slavin, hosted by The Atlantic Council. November 29 at 9:30am, at Atlantic Council, 1030 15th Street NW, 12th Floor (West Tower Elevator), Washington, DC. Details here. http://bit.ly/2ejjWfF

--“The Future of the Command and Control of Our Nuclear Weapons,” by Ploughshares Fund, featuring Eric Schlosser, author of Command and Control and Joe Cirincione, President of Plowshares Fund. At Four Seasons Hotel Seattle, 99 Union St., Seattle, WA on November 29, 2016 from 6:00 to 9:00pm. Details and registration here. http://bit.ly/2frpJT9

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