US Allies: New Sanctions Risk Upending Nuclear Talks

January 22, 2015 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

Negotiating partners - “Give diplomacy with Iran a chance,” argue French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond, German Minister for Foreign Affairs Frank-Walter Steinmeier and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Frederica Mogherini in The Washington Post.

--“Our responsibility is to make sure diplomacy is given the best possible chance to succeed. Maintaining pressure on Iran through our existing sanctions is essential. But introducing new hurdles at this critical stage of the negotiations, including through additional nuclear-related sanctions legislation on Iran, would jeopardize our efforts at a critical juncture.”

--“We want a comprehensive solution that both recognizes the Iranian people’s right to access peaceful nuclear energy and allows the international community to verify that Iran cannot obtain a nuclear weapon...With the eyes of the world upon us, we must demonstrate our commitment to diplomacy to try to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue within the deadline we have set. That is the surest path to reaching a comprehensive, lasting solution that will make the world and the region safer.” http://wapo.st/1unoRLc

You guys should talk - “I have yet to talk to anyone who has said our weighing in would jeopardize the negotiations,” said Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman, Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) yesterday in a hearing on Iran.

--“But introducing new hurdles at this critical stage of the negotiations, including through additional nuclear-related sanctions legislation on Iran, would jeopardize our efforts at a critical juncture,” write three European foreign ministers and the EU foreign policy chief in the above-linked Washington Post op-ed.

Hillary chimes in - “If we're the reason -- through our Congress -- that in effect gives Iran and others the excuse not to continue the negotiations, that would be, in my view, a very serious strategic error,” said Hillary Clinton yesterday.

--"Why do we want to be the catalyst for the collapse of negotiations until we really know whether there's something we can get out of them that will make the world safer [and] avoid an arms race in the Middle East?" Full story from Carrie Dann for ABC News. http://nbcnews.to/1GAbmT6

Mossad weighs in - “The Israeli intelligence agency Mossad has broken ranks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, telling U.S. officials and lawmakers that a new Iran sanctions bill in the U.S. Congress would tank the Iran nuclear negotiations… Evidence of the Israeli rift surfaced Wednesday when Secretary of State John Kerry said that an unnamed Israeli intelligence official had said the new sanctions bill would be ‘like throwing a grenade into the process.’” Full story by Josh Rogin and Eli Lake in Bloomberg View. http://bv.ms/1uvgmmZ

Scowcroft & Brzezinski - Former National Security Advisors Lt. Gen. Brent Scowcroft and Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee yesterday. Both came out against new sanctions on Iran and warned about the dangers of escalating tensions with Russia.

--Brzezinski on Iran: “All of the parties negotiating, including our closest allies as well as the Russians and the Chinese, favor a continuation of the negotiations for reasons specific to their own interests. If the negotiations broke down the whole process would collapse. And then what would be the alternative? Should we then attack and bomb them and thereby make the war in the Middle East even more explosive? We have to ask ourselves, why should we do this? Cui bono is a very good, simple, practical question to ask. And I don't see any benefit in the United States in that transpiring.”

--Scowcroft on nuclear weapons: “I believe we need, first of all, to pay attention to our nuclear structure and nuclear relations with Russia. Because we do not want, above all, a nuclear war to erupt. I think we also need to look carefully at how the world is changing, and what we can do to -- to assist that change to produce a better, not a worse world...I think Russia is a very difficult case right now. But I think the Cold War is not returning, and we should not aid and abet its return.”

--Full video here: http://1.usa.gov/1x9Skt3. Coverage by Kristina Wong in The Hill here. http://bit.ly/1uxXHa1

Breach of protocol - Speaker of the House Rep. John Boehner “has invited Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to address Congress next month. He didn't consult with the White House before extending the invitation, and administration officials are not happy,” reports Marina Koren.

--“Press secretary Josh Earnest said Wednesday afternoon that Boehner's invitation is a breach of normal diplomatic protocol. Typically, a nation's leader would contact the White House before planning a visit to the United States, he said. The White House heard about the invite from Boehner's office, not from the Israelis.” Full story in the National Journal. http://bit.ly/1L1s8KB

Meanwhile in the SFRC - “U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday international negotiators hope to reach an agreement in March on all of the core elements on an agreement with Iran to curb its nuclear program. ‘What we hope to get to in March is the agreement on all of the core elements, what commitments the Iranians would make,’ he said at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing.” Full story by Patricia Zengerle for Reuters. http://reut.rs/15f3RiW

Bueller? - “Republicans are eager to rumble with the White House over sanctions on Iran, but they may have trouble getting President Barack Obama’s Democratic critics to go along,” writes Burgess Everett for Politico.

--“In interviews Wednesday, several Democrats who had supported a previous version of Iran legislation sponsored by Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL) said they are reconsidering their positions. Meanwhile, a previous version of an Iran bill offered by Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) did not have any Democratic co-sponsors.” Full story here. http://politi.co/1sZVzqr

Frozen - “Considerable progress has been made over the past year in rolling back Iran’s nuclear program,” write Brig. Gen. John H. Johns (ret.) and Angela Canterbury for The Hill. “The interim agreement has frozen the program in place, the IAEA has been granted unprecedented access to Iranian nuclear facilities, and their “nuclear stockpile has been sharply reduced”. Importantly, “Iran has agreed to an internationally monitored cap on the enrichment of uranium.” Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/1JcU2RV

Tweet - @SFallahpour: #Iran Extremists attacks to @JZarif have reached unprecedented level/the possibility of impeachment is serious http://bit.ly/1t23y6p

Spending spree - “It has become popular among military and congressional leaders to argue that the United States has had a ‘procurement holiday’ in nuclear force planning for the past two decades,” and that therefore the nuclear arsenal must be recapitalized. Not exactly, argues Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists.

--“The not-so-procurement-holiday includes fielding of eight of 14 Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines...21 B-2A stealth bombers, [and] an $8 billion-plus complete overhaul of the entire Minuteman III ICBM force including back-fitting it with the W87 warhead,” and an assortment of other programs. “Even with Russian and Chinese nuclear modernizations, there is no indication that today’s threats or challenges are even remotely as dire or as intense as the Cold War.” Full column. http://bit.ly/1AQudAK

Quick Hits:

--“U.S., Iran to hold nuclear talks in Switzerland on Friday, Saturday,” report by Reuters. http://reut.rs/1CTWUQ3

--“Low oil adds to Iran woes during nuclear pact: U.S. official” Full coverage by Patricia Zengerle and Timothy Gardner in Reuters. http://reut.rs/1xDCgjo

--“Chillin’ With the Second Artillery,” by Jeffrey Lewis for 38 North. http://bit.ly/1t214oK

--“Workers discover ceiling damage at nuke repository,” via the Associated Press. http://bit.ly/1JcVVy6

--“John Kerry warns against Iran sanctions bill,” via CBS News. http://cbsn.ws/1BhD29t

Events:

--“Congress's Role in Verification After an Iranian Nuclear Deal." Featuring Christopher Bidwell, Federation of American Scientists; John Lauder, former CIA Chief of Nonproliferation; and Harvey Rishikof, American Bar Association. January 22, noon-2:00 p.m. Sponsored by Third Way. Located at HVC-215 Capitol Visitor Center, Washington. RSVP by email to rsvp@thirdway.org.

--“Rally to Say No to a $1 Trillion Nuclear Arsenal.” Hosted by Global Zero, from 1:00-3:00 p.m. on January 24. Located at the Ellipse (south of the White House), Washington, DC. RSVP online.

--Senate Banking Committee, hearing on "Perspectives on the Strategic Necessity of Iran Sanctions," with witnesses TBA. January 27 at 10:00 a.m. Located in the Dirksen Senate Office Building, room 538, Washington DC. Webcast on the committee website.

--"Australia and the Bomb," featuring Christine Leah, Yale University; Christian Ostermann, Wilson Center; and Elbridge Colby, Center for a New American Security. January 28, 2:00-3:30 p.m., Wilson Center, Sixth Floor, Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online.

-- “Debunk the Myths of Iran Sanctions,” featuring Kate Gould, Legislative Associate for Middle East Policy, Friends Committee on National Legislation. Hosted by Physicians for Social Responsibility. Wed, Jan 28, 2015 8:30 PM - 9:30 PM EST. Register here. http://bit.ly/1sWA1uX

--"Avoiding Disaster in a New Era of Superpower Tension." Featuring Nikolas Gvosdev, U.S. Naval War College; Fiona Hill, Brookings Institution; Ali Wyne, RAND; and Elbridge Colby, Center for a New American Security. January 29 from 6:30-8:00 p.m. Located at the FHI Conference Center, Eighth Floor, 1825 Connecticut Ave. NW, Washington DC. Sponsored by PS21: Project for the Study of the 21st Century. RSVP. online

--"The Nuclear Enterprise: Past and Future." Featuring Michael Elliott, Deputy Director for Strategic Stability Plans and Policy Directorate, Joint Chiefs of Staff. February 3 from 9:30-10:30 a.m. Located at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Second Floor Hess Room, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington DC. RSVP online. online

Dessert:

Giddyup - “The year was 1944 and the place was the Saddle Club in Oak Ridge. Giddyup.” Via Frank Munger at Atomic City Underground. http://bit.ly/1umE4vP