Setbacks Alone Won’t Stop North Korea’s Nuclear Progress

North Korea test fail - “South Korea and the U.S. said Sunday that the latest missile launch by North Korea ended in a failure after the projectile reportedly exploded soon after liftoff,” writes Hyung-jin Kim for AP. “The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement that the military believes the North unsuccessfully attempted to fire a mid-range Musudan missile. It said the failed launch was made near an airport in the North's North Pyongan province. South Korea's Yonhap news agency said that the missile was believed to have exploded soon after liftoff.”

--“It's the latest in a series of moves by North Korea aimed apparently at displaying a show of force. As recently as last month, it fired three ballistic missiles off its east coast... North Korea also conducted its fifth nuclear test last month and in all has launched more than 20 ballistic missiles this year, part of its program aimed at improving the delivery system for nuclear weapons... North Korea successfully launched a Musudan missile in June after several failed attempts. Musudan has a range of 3,500 kilometers (2,180 miles) — enough to reach U.S. military installments in Japan and Guam.” Full article here. http://apne.ws/2dxBhBf

Tweet - @FAScientists: @Stanford is offering a FREE e-course: Living at the #Nuclear Brink ft. FAS Board of Experts Vice-Chair Scott Sagan. http://stanford.io/2dfxjy8

North Korea learning from past failures - “North Korea seems to have tested its Musudan missile seven times this year, with only a single clear success to show for it. But the North Koreans aren’t simply repeating old failures. And they aren’t taking the slow path to developing a reliable system, with a year or so between each test to analyze the data and make improvements.”

 

--“Instead, they are continuing with an aggressive test schedule that involves, at least this time, demonstrating new operational capabilities. That increases the probability of individual tests failing, but it means they will learn more with each test even if it does result in failure. If they continue at this rate, the Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile could enter operational service sometime next year–much sooner than had previously been expected… We, and STRATCOM, will be watching closely to see when and where the next tests occur.” Read the full story from John Schilling for 38 North here. http://bit.ly/2epx0x8

With North Korea, promote diplomacy - “‘We can’t afford for a new U.S. administration to come into office at the end of January and take months to figure out what to do,’ said Joel S. Wit, a senior fellow at the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University and founder of its website monitoring Pyongyang, 38 North,” writes Chae Byung-Gun for Korea JoongAng Daily.

--According to Wit, the solution is to continue prioritizing “the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. We should have a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula. We should never change from that priority. Secondly, in reaching that long term objective, it can’t be done overnight. It has to be done in phases. The first phase, first logical phase, is to freeze North Korea’s nuclear missile tests, and then gradually negotiate the freeze on its whole nuclear program. Diplomacy is part of an overall policy… and is one of the tools that need to be more seriously pursued.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/2dLyiTw

Tweet - @GlobalZero: 54 years ago today, the Cuban Missile Crisis began. What followed were 13 days that brought the world to the nuclear brink.

Congressional progressives on no-first-use - “More than twenty Members of Congress, led by the Congressional Progressive Caucus and CPC Peace and Security Task Force Chair, Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-CA), sent a letter to President Obama encouraging him to enhance global security by advancing a no-first-use nuclear policy. The letter notes that ‘shifting to a no-first-use policy is the right thing for today’s 21st century security needs.’”

--“In the letter, Members outline the benefits of a no-first-use policy including: ‘Reducing the risk of miscalculation by adversaries by alleviating concerns about U.S. intentions;’ Raising the bar for nuclear weapons use by any nuclear-armed state, and; Minimizing the need for ‘first strike’ weapons, including the next-generation nuclear-armed cruise missile and intercontinental ballistic missiles, which could generate significant cost savings and lead other nuclear-armed states to make similar calculations.” Full letter posted here. http://bit.ly/2e8nMKU

Potential for Russian war - “Some activities going on in Russia these days might make it seem like the country is genuinely preparing for war. Talk of bunkers and rations; [nuclear] missiles moving around; politicians uttering dire warnings — are these harbingers of a Russian-U.S. conflict?” asks David Filipov for The Washington Post. “The Washington Post's Moscow bureau decided to rank the signs to see how likely they suggest that Russia is getting ready to fight,” and concluded that recent actions are “publicity stunt[s],” a “negotiating tactic,” and “not likely” indicating an imminent war. Full piece here. http://wapo.st/2dDTaMi

Positive spillover effect of Iran agreement - “Since Iran and six world powers struck a deal on Tehran’s nuclear program more than a year ago, a number of interactions between the Islamic Republic and the United States have made headlines,” writes Ariane Tabatabai for The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. However, “what has received less attention is the prospect of scientific and technological exchange between Tehran and Washington.”

--“Tehran has made it clear that it wants to work with the United States on a number of fronts… Rouhani, who faces a general election in seven months, will help himself if he is able to sell the deal as the key that opened the door to more cooperation with the West. However, he isn’t the only one who would benefit from more scientific and technological exchange. Members of Iran’s dynamic civil society, youth and women in particular, are constantly seeking new opportunities, and the nuclear deal removed a major obstacle in their way. The United States and broader international community also stand to gain from increased exchange and interaction with Iran, which has much to offer in a variety of fields.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/2eAIanM

Tweet - @RANDCorporation: Could the #Kashmir standoff trigger nuclear war? RAND's Rafiq Dossani and @JonahBlank weigh in: http://bit.ly/2dkMEhm

UK continues nuclear-sub production - “The United Kingdom has started production on its new Successor-class ballistic missile submarines,” writes David Majumdar for War is Boring. “The four new boats will be the largest submarines ever built for the Royal Navy — displacing 17,200 tons with a length of around 502 feet — but they will only have 12 missile tubes rather than the 16 found aboard the current Vanguard class. The new boomers will also share technology with their U.S. Navy counterparts — the Columbia-class Ohio Replacement Program SSBNs — using a common missile compartment, or CMC, design.

--“In October, the British government approved an initial £1.3 billion in funding for the new ballistic missile submarines. That initial outlay will cover long-lead items — such as the CMCs — and preparing the shipyard at Barrow-in-Furness for the task of building the enormous new vessels... While the 17,200-ton boats will be larger than their 15,900-ton Vanguard-class predecessors, the new SSBNs will carry four fewer missiles.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/2eqVPKv

Quick Hits:

--“North Korea Warns It Would Use Nuclear Weapons First If Threatened,” by Bill Neely for NBC News. http://nbcnews.to/2ekEYri

--“Putin Throws Out the Old Nuclear Rules, Rattling Washington,” by Dan De Luce and Reid Standish for Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/2e8VJcJ

--“The case for no-first-use nuclear weapons policy,” by Jake Ryan Smith for The Hill. http://bit.ly/2eBHwGu

--“US Warship to Visit New Zealand and End 30-Year Stalemate,” by Nick Perry for AP. http://abcn.ws/2e1OnYa

--“UN Security Council condemns failed N.Korea missile launch,” by Reuters. http://bit.ly/2eefyOC

--“Activity at North Korea’s Sohae Launch Facility: Continued Infrastructure Improvements,” by 38 North. http://bit.ly/2ee7jDz

--“On Fabius and the Iran Deal,” podcast by Jeffrey Lewis for Arms Control Wonk. http://bit.ly/2epo0Z5

Events:

--“A New Strategy for US-Iran Relations,” panel with Ellen Laipson, Michael Connell, Amir Handjani, and moderated by David Sanjer. October 19 at Atlantic Council, 1030 15th ST NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC. RSVP Here. http://bit.ly/2cNu01w

--“Able Archer 83: The Secret History,” presentation by Nate Jones. October 20 at 3:00pm in the Wilson Center’s 6th Floor Moynihan Board Room. Full details here. http://bit.ly/2e4cOBK

--“Books at Wilson: Deterring Nuclear Terrorism,” by Robert Litwak and panel discussion on October 21 at 10:00am, in the Wilson Center’s 6th Floor Moynihan Board Room. Full details here. http://bit.ly/2ehDHSV

--“Book Launch: My Journey at the Nuclear Brink," with William Perry, former Defense Secretary on October 24 at 7:00 p.m., at All Souls Unitarian Church, 1157 Lexington Ave., New York. http://bit.ly/2dbK499

Dessert:

SecDef has a sense of humor - “Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter appeared on ‘Late Night With Seth Meyers’ on Thursday — and it was far from the typical appearance for the nuclear physicist who oversees the world’s largest military,” writes Dan Lamothe for The Washington Post. “In a clip running more than seven minutes, Carter invites NBC’s late-night host into his office, shows off some historic artifacts and then points to a phone that he says connects directly to President Obama. ‘Wanna prank him?’ Carter asks.” Full article and video here. http://wapo.st/2e7y75p

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