Russia’s Nuclear Brinkmanship Continues

Russia’s nuclear bargaining chip - “Russia further curtailed its cooperation with the United States in nuclear energy on Wednesday, suspending a research agreement and terminating one on uranium conversion, two days after the Kremlin shelved a plutonium pact with Washington.” The move indicates Russian President Putin “is willing to use nuclear disarmament as a new bargaining chip in disputes with the United States over Ukraine and Syria,” reports Lidia Kelly for Reuters.

-- If news reports are accurate, “we would regret the Russian decision to unilaterally suspend cooperation on what we believe is a very important issue that's in the interest of both of our countries," State Department spokesman Mark Toner said at a daily news briefing. Full article here. http://reut.rs/2du0xaX

How no-first-use would work - “Washington still retains and has always retained the option to use nuclear weapons, even if the United States or an ally has not suffered a nuclear attack. Keeping this option on the table is dangerous and unnecessary,” writes Kingston Reif for The Cipher Brief. “The United States already has a de facto no-first-use policy. But it is not accruing the benefits that an official policy of no first use would provide.

--”A no-first-use declaration would be highly credible in the current and foreseeable strategic environment, and over time, it could be made more credible by adjusting U.S. operational practices to clearly reflect the new nuclear declaratory policy... The continued U.S. maintenance of a nuclear use option, which it is almost certain never to execute, is self-defeating and counterproductive. In today’s global security environment, the threat of nuclear first use is unwarranted and imprudent.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/2dAHStj

Nukes in the presidential debate - The presidential candidates may want to brush up on their nuclear policy knowledge after a hint from debate moderator Martha Raddatz on “no-first-use.” The Washington Post has the story. http://wapo.st/2du0MWy

--Submit and vote for nuclear policy questions here and watch the debate this Sunday, October 9th, at 9:00pm ET.

Tweet - @GlobalZero: 54 yrs ago, a single Soviet officer prevented the nuclear apocalypse. Thanks Vasili Arkhipov! #NoRedButton http://bit.ly/2dNEJ7W

Revive North Korea talks - “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. For years we have applied industrial-strength unilateral and multilateral sanctions in an attempt to force North Korea to denuclearize. We have also urged China — North Korea’s neighbor and largest trading partner — to use its unique leverage to halt Kim Jong Un’s provocations, which also threaten China. But neither strategy is working,” write Jane Harman and James Person for The Washington Post .

--”The United States has an underappreciated ace in its deck: North Korea has been trying to talk to us since 1974. Only the United States — the supposed existential threat that justifies its nuclear and ballistic missile programs — can fully address Pyongyang’s security concerns... the next administration must invest significant diplomatic capital in moving talks toward the eventual goal of complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantlement.” Full story here. http://wapo.st/2dV40lF

See also - “Why the torrent of N. Korean weapons? Maybe the US elections,” by Tim Sullivan for The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/2dV40lF

Tweet - @NuclearWatchNM: What We Talk About When We Don’t Want to Talk About Nuclear War http://bit.ly/2cWeqvo

Nuclear budget crunch - With nuclear weapons costs rising and resources declining, budget caps pose a significant threat to nuclear warhead upgrade plans, the head of the National Nuclear Security Administration said. Defense News’s Aaron Mehta has the story. http://bit.ly/2cWBbQd

Protecting nonproliferation - “Nuclear nonproliferation – a cornerstone of U.S. national security strategy since the dawn of the nuclear age – is now teetering on a dangerous precipice... Against this increasingly disconcerting backdrop, the United States could take several key steps to reverse these trends,” writes Daniel Gerstein for U.S. News & World Report.

-- The US should “emphasize its absolute support for the goals of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty,” “build support for the JCPOA, both domestically and across the globe” address Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons and strongly support international efforts such as the Global Initiative to Counter Nuclear Terrorism, the Proliferation Security Initiative and the Nuclear Terrorism Convention. Full article here. http://bit.ly/2dvj1sA

Quick Hits:

--“The Impact of the Iran Nuclear Deal: Fact-Checking the Fact Checkers” by Daryl Kimball for Arms Control Association. http://bit.ly/2dAZ4Pv

--“Developers Make Bets on Iran” by Quartz Staff for Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/2dhtK6M

--WAND’s Washington office is seeking interns on a part- or full-time basis. Start and end dates are flexible. Apply here: http://bit.ly/2dvjai9

--”Terrorism fallout shelters: Is it time to resurrect nuclear civil defense?” by Timothy Jorgensen for AP. http://apne.ws/2dvm6sy

--”At historic missile site, activist says nukes still threaten the Plains” by Seth Tupper for Rapid City Journal. http://bit.ly/2dZCDGo

Events:

--“Nuclear Debates in Asia: The Role of Geopolitics and Domestic Processes,” with a panel discussion on October 11 from 12:45 to 2:30 p.m., at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs, Room 505, 1957 E Street, NW, Washington. http://bit.ly/2dPphcY

--“Iran: Rising Power in the Middle East,” with Joseph Cirincione, President of Ploughshares Fund, and other panelists. October 13 at Chapman University, Orange County campus, Beckman Hall 404, Orange, CA. http://chapma.nu/2doMqRP

--“Book Launch: My Journey at the Nuclear Brink," with William Perry, former Defense Secretary on October 24 at 7:00 p.m., at All Souls Unitarian Church, 1157 Lexington Ave., New York. http://bit.ly/2dbK499