Poll: 61% of Americans Favor Making a Nuclear Deal with Iran

July 15, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

Public in favor - “As the clock runs out on negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, a new study of the American public finds that 61 percent favor making a deal with Iran that would limit Iran’s enrichment capacity and impose additional intrusive inspections in exchange for the lifting of some sanctions,” the Program for Public Consultation reports. “This includes 62 percent of Republicans, 65 percent of Democrats and 51 percent of independents.”

--“The alternative option, being promoted by some members of Congress, calls for not continuing the current negotiations but increasing sanctions in an effort to get Iran to stop all uranium enrichment. This approach is endorsed by 35 percent.”

--“While there are no easy or definitive answers to the dispute about Iran’s nuclear program, most Americans clearly favor diplomatic engagement and cooperation over the alternatives,” said Nancy Gallagher, research director at CISSM. “Majorities of Republicans, Democrats, and independents all think that compromise makes more sense than yet another round of sanctions.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/Wf2hKp

--Full poll results: “Americans on Negotiations with Iran: a Policymaking Simulation” by the Program for Public Consultation and the Center for International & Security Studies at Maryland. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1sYNVbB

Kerry from Vienna - “Secretary of State John Kerry declared Tuesday that international talks on Iran’s nuclear program have made substantial progress, laying the groundwork for an extension of negotiations if the seven countries’ representatives do not complete a deal by Sunday's deadline,” Paul Richter reports for the Los Angeles Times. “At a news conference after two days of difficult meetings, Kerry said the two sides have far to go to nail down a deal that will provide reassurance to world powers that Tehran’s nuclear program will not obtain a bomb-making capability.”

--“Negotiators say they have made progress on several of the important secondary issues in the negotiations. These include the disposition of a bomb-resistant underground nuclear enrichment site at Fordow; a heavy-water reactor at Arak that could create plutonium bomb fuel; arrangements for closely monitoring and inspecting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure; and the terms for easing international sanctions on Iran’s economy.”

--Iranian officials “have disclosed this week that they have floated to the world powers a proposal under which they would freeze their uranium enrichment capability at its current level of 9,400 centrifuges, and keep it at that level for six or seven years. After the deal lapses, Iran would then be free to raise production to an industrial scale under this proposal.” Western diplomats say that the plan has it defects. Full report here. http://lat.ms/WeY21z

Tweet - @plough_shares: What are the benefits of an #IranDeal vs. cost of no deal? This graphic explains it. #LetDiplomacyWork http://bit.ly/W76n74

Menendez-Graham letter - “With just one week before the July 20 deadline for Iran and six world powers to come to an agreement in Vienna on curbing Tehran's nuclear enrichment capabilities, a key pair of senators is issuing a new set of terms for a final deal that could further complicate the delicate talks,” writes John Hudson in Foreign Policy. In a new letter circulating around the Senate for signature, Senators Bob Menendez (D-NJ) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) laid out their requirements for a deal with Iran and the prompt snapback of sanctions given any non-compliance with the deal.

--"The talks could be thrown off course if senators try to grab the steering wheel away from U.S. and allied negotiators," said Daryl Kimball. "Any agreement that is struck between the P5+1 and Iran should not be evaluated on the basis of any single feature...Instead, it should be judged on its overall impact on reducing Iran's nuclear capacity and improving capabilities to detect any ongoing or future Iranian weapons program." Full article here. http://atfp.co/1kspy0O

Letter analysis - “The underlying demand [of the Menendez-Graham letter] is that Iran dismantle all its "illicit nuclear infrastructure" is simply not a feasible negotiations outcome. So, if the signatories really mean what that phrase says, then they do not want these negotiations to succeed,” said Ed Levine, former professional staffer with the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Read Levine’s full analysis of the letter from the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. http://bit.ly/1robJpb

Removing the barriers - CNAS Senior Fellow Elizabeth Rosenberg, “provides recommendations for U.S. lawmakers on how to navigate the complicated web of sanctions on Iran and deliver credible relief in exchange for Iranian nuclear concessions under a final agreement.” Read the full report here. http://bit.ly/1mRsyro

Tweet - @lrozen: Zarif seems to be preparing ground for brief extension. But won't be announced til sunday july 20. 'We may need some more time'

Extension - “The White House won’t rule out extending nuclear talks with Iran as prospects for a deal stalled ahead of a looming July 20 deadline,” Justin Sink reports for The Hill. “Secretary of State John Kerry is expected to recommend a ‘way forward’ to President Obama after negotiations this week in Vienna. Kerry is attempting to ‘assess the seriousness with which the Iranians are pursuing these negotiations,’ White House press secretary Josh Earnest said Monday. ‘He's going to report back to the president and then we'll be able to give you an update about whether or not an extension is something that we would either find necessary or even desirable,’ he added.” Full report here. http://bit.ly/1n6yaQt

Lost trade - “Sanctions against Iran cost the U.S. as much as $175.3 billion in lost export opportunities over 18 years, according to a new report from the National Iranian American Council,” writes Jonathan Schectman in The Wall Street Journal. “Losing out on selling to Iran has cost the U.S. an average of between 51,043 and 66,436 jobs for every year between 1995 and 2012.”

--“If we’re going to discuss whether sanctions are worth the price, you need know the price,” said Trita Parsi. “Dismissing a conversation of costs is something very similar to how the Iranian government has handled [the nuclear crisis] and I don’t think that’s something to emulate.” Full piece here. http://on.wsj.com/1jLUVZq

Subs sink destroyer budget - “The looming hit to the shipbuilding budget from the Navy’s plan to build 12 new nuclear ballistic missile submarines resulted in the cancellation of a fourth flight of Arleigh Burke destroyers (DDG-51) as well as the controversial plan to layup 11 Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruisers (CG-47), the navy’s chief shipbuilder told a congressional panel in a recent hearing on cruiser and destroyer modification.”

--“The shifts in the Navy’s large surface combatants come as the $100 billion bill for the 12 new boomers begin to take up more and more of the Navy’s shipbuilding budget — leaving less and less for other shipbuilding programs.” Read the full report from Sam LaGrone for USNI News here. http://bit.ly/1n6bXBY

Quick-hits:

--“The P5+1 and Iran Nuclear Talks Alert, July 14” in Arms Control Now. http://bit.ly/WeXLLW

--“Interdisciplinary and Interregional Cooperation Essential to Nuclear Forensic Success” from the IAEA. http://bit.ly/1kZypXJ

--“Iranian nuclear talks watched in Tehran with anticipation, dread” by Ramin Mostaghim and Paul Richter in the Los Angeles Times. http://lat.ms/1rdKEra

--“Pressure on the Nuclear 9” by Rick Wayman in The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1p2AGUP

--“Kerry Cites Big Gaps in Nuclear Talks With Iran” by George Jahn and Bradley Klapper for the AP. http://abcn.ws/1r1hmKE

Events:

--“Deal or No Deal: Negotiating to Stop Iran’s Nuclear Program.” Discussion with Ploughshares Fund President Joe Cirincione. July 16 from 5:30 to 7:30 at The Curtis Hotel, 1405 Curtis St., Denver, CO. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1jtMSQZ

--“Crisis in Iraq: What’s Next for Them and Us.” Discussion with Robin Wright. July 16 from 6:00 to 8:00 at the Embassy of Slovenia, 2410 California St. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1kZwoe1

--“Russian Violations of the INF Treaty: After Detection-What?” House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces hearing with Steven Pifer, Rademaker, and Jim Thomas. July 17 at 9:30 at 2118 Rayburn House Office Building. Webcast available on committee website. http://1.usa.gov/1tIuM1I

--“Ready for an Iran Deal: No Nuke & No War.” Briefing call from the Truman National Security Project; moderated by Dave Solimini. July 17 at 12:30, call-in number and link provided in RSVP confirmation materials. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1zrGtdx

--“Nuclear Centers of Excellence in Asia: Next Steps.” Discussion with Kazunori Hirao, Laura Holgate, and 11 other speakers. July 18 from 9:00 to 4:00 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 212-A/B Conference Room, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. RSVP by email to Robert Kim at rkim@csis.org

--“Iran: Diplomacy or War?” Netroots Nation discussion with Ali Gharib, Heather Hurlburt, and Sen. Chris Murphy; moderated by Matt Duss. July 18 from 11:00 to 12:15 at COBO Center, Room 141, 1 Washington Blvd., Detroit, MI. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1jtO5rr

--“Progressive National Security in the 2014 Elections and Beyond.” Netroots Nation discussion with Ploughshares Fund President Joe Cirincione, Mike Darner, and Megan Minnion; moderated by Emily Cadei. July 19 from 1:30 to 2:45 at COBO Center, Room 140 D, 1 Washington Blvd., Detroit, MI. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1jtO5rr

--“Iran’s Nuclear Chess: Calculating America’s Moves.” Discussion with Robert Litwak, Mitchell Reiss, and David Sanger. July 21 from 12:00 to 1:15 at the Wilson Center, 5th floor, Reagan building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1oVD4hv

--“The Future of WMD in 2030.” Off the record discussion with John Caves and Seth Carus. July 24 12:00 to 1:30 at the National Defense University, Lincoln Hall, Room 1119, Fort McNair, Washington. RSVP by email to Nima Gerami at nima.gerami@ndu.edu.

--“Nuclear Politics on the Korean Peninsula.” Discussion with seven speakers. July 28 from 3:00 to 5:15 at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. RSVP here. http://ceip.org/1sTSpjA