Negotiations, Sanctions and Iran’s Domestic Politics

January 7, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

Iran domestic politics - “A collapse of the negotiations [with Iran] would not only signal that the region's most enduring global conflict is beyond the pale of rational solution -- the failure of nuclear diplomacy would kill also off the chances for internal political reform in Iran itself,” writes Daniel Brumberg for Foreign Policy.

--The author argues that the key to domestic reform in Iran is to attenuate the decades long U.S.-Iran conflict, which would undercut hardliners’ position and help Iran’s pragmatist seek reforms. However, “new sanctions will not only destroy the pragmatists' credibility -- it will decimate their wider bid to advance a new domestic reform project,” writes Brumberg. Read the full article here. http://atfp.co/1gBWljE

Sanctions update - “Iran sanctions bill opposed by Obama gains Senate backers” by Timothy Gardner of Reuters. http://reut.rs/1bNFN2O

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: "Tim Johnson won’t consider Iran [sanctions] bill during talks." @politico http://t.co/80kk8UlJQ3

Iran, EU talk implementation - “Iran and the European Union will hold a two-day meeting in Geneva on Thursday to discuss implementing a landmark nuclear deal between the Islamic state and major powers,” Reuters reports. Full story here. http://reut.rs/19YQTWg

U.S. nuclear forces - The United States has an estimated 2,120 deployed nuclear warheads out of a total inventory of roughly 7,400 warheads, according to a new report from Hans Kristensen and Robert Norris for The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Read the full report here. http://bit.ly/1acJMKh

Subs lose tubes - “The United States next year is slated to begin reducing launch tubes on each of its Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines, a new independent report states. The elimination of four operational launch tubes on each of the 14 submarines that make up the Navy's Ohio submarine fleet will be the first substantial reduction in U.S. strategic weapon delivery capability since the 2011 New START accord went into effect.”

--Up until this point, the U.S. military, “has not done anything that has actually affected the actual number of nuclear [delivery vehicles] that are in the war plan,” and has instead, “focused on reducing the nuclear-delivery capability of selected vehicles, such as heavy bombers, that have already been retired.” Read the full report from Rachel Oswald in Global Security Newswire here. http://bit.ly/1cNCzN2

Moral argument - ”One day, I suspect, the people obsessing about the details of an Iranian nuclear deal will look a bit like the people who obsessed about the details of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty between the U.S. and U.S.S.R. in 1987. In retrospect, what mattered wasn’t the number of ballistic and cruise missiles each side dismantled. What mattered was ending the cold war,” writes Peter Beinart on the historic and regional context of the Iran nuclear deal. The Atlantic has the article. http://bit.ly/1cW6iHV

NNSA report - “NNSA's Management of the $245 Million Nuclear Materials Safeguards and Security Upgrades Project Phase II” from the Department of Energy Inspector General. January, 2014. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/1cWdJz5

Empty promises - “A sobering depiction of high-octane missile development programs and lethargic diplomacy” demonstrates “how empty Indian and Pakistani pledges were to pursue minimum, credible deterrence made by government leaders after testing nuclear devices in 1998,” writes Michael Krepon. See the graphic and analysis at Arms Control Wonk. http://bit.ly/19YVfNb

Events:

--Joseph Cirincione, Ploughshares Fund, and Eric Schlosser book discussion of Nuclear Nightmares: Securing the World Before It Is Too Late. Jan. 8th from 6:00-7:30 at The Commonwealth Club in San Francisco. Register here. http://bit.ly/1km1MYR

--”Inside Iran.” Discussion with David Ignatius and Robin Wright at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Jan. 9th from 9:30-11:00. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1f8fMmN

Dessert:

EMP study - “The Defense Threat Reduction Agency, a Pentagon body focused on countering threats from nuclear weapons, has put out the call for new studies” into electromagnetic pulse attacks, writes Robert Beckhusen. For a “number of doomsayers, missile-defense boosters, and prominent politicos, the risk is that a rogue state could emit a blast of electromagnetic energy by way of a nuclear explosion in the upper atmosphere, frying electronic systems from California to Cape Cod.”

--However, “for skeptics -- and many scientists -- it’s all an overblown theory containing loads of technical and practical problems. More realistically, it'd be lights out when we’re eventually hit by a rare and exceedingly powerful solar storm.” Full article in Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/1eiGfck