Iran Deal Outlook: Restraint from Hawks, Optimism from Negotiators

December 8, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

Caution on sanctions - “Many lawmakers seem to be having second thoughts about their vows to immediately hit Iran with new economic penalties,” reports Paul Richter for the Los Angeles Times.

--“Though many longtime lawmakers are eager for immediate penalties, it appears they don't have enough votes to override a threatened veto by President Obama. And some lawmakers are worrying that new penalties could upend the long-running negotiations, sticking the United States — and Congress in particular — with the blame.”

--“I don't think anybody in Congress wants to feel, quote, responsible for this deal falling apart,” said incoming Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN). “You realize that you're, in essence, to use a term, firing with real bullets." http://lat.ms/1u8LZMZ

Kerry on prospects - “Secretary of State John F. Kerry predicted Sunday that a deal to limit Iran’s nuclear capacity could be reached in three or four months, or even sooner.” Speaking at the Saban Forum, “Kerry argued, the world is a safer place. International inspectors have daily access to Iran’s enrichment facilities. Its stockpile of highly enriched uranium has been diluted or converted. And a plutonium reactor is effectively frozen.” Full coverage from Carol Morello of The Washington Post here. http://wapo.st/1ubWWwd

Better than none - Negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, are “a case where half a deal is better than none,” argues Doyle McManus argues in the Los Angeles Times. “Renewing the interim deal isn't a long-term solution to the nuclear standoff for either side. It won't give the United States and its allies all the safeguards they want...and it won't give Iran all the relief from economic sanctions it seeks...but it could prevent it from getting worse and spiraling into war.” Read the full column here. http://lat.ms/1G8QGw6

The big picture - “P5+1 talks are not (just) about Iran,” writes Adam Mount for The National Interest. “Reaching a deal will not only restrain the Iranian nuclear program, but could help restrain others in the future.”

--“Having started negotiations, the United States should finish them. Reaching a deal will not only restrain the Iranian nuclear program, but could help restrain others in the future. As frustrating as it is, Congress is going to have to summon the patience to let diplomacy work. Applying additional sanctions may feel cathartic for congressmen like Sen. Rubio, but only a deal can end the Iranian nuclear program.” Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/1A8rUtS

Arak accusation - The U.S. has informed the U.N. Security Council that “Iranian procurement agents have been increasing their efforts to illicitly obtain equipment for the IR-40 research reactor at the Arak nuclear complex,” reports Colum Lynch for Foreign Policy. However, “the American claims have been greeted with skepticism by some outside observers.”

--Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association, says that past violations have often been reported months or years after they were initially committed, and that “much of Iran’s illicit procurement activities are conducted by private entrepreneurs and regime hard-liners,” not the central government. These factions “may be keen to scuttle a historic nuclear deal.” Read the full story here. http://atfp.co/1vvTNYE

Implementation at a glance - Kelsey Davenport provides updated analysis of how the terms of the Joint Plan of Action are being met and implemented. Full writeup on the Arms Control Association’s website. http://bit.ly/1aFGnWH

Vienna Conference - “The U.S. and Britain took part Monday for the first time in a conference of some 800 delegates from more than 150 countries exploring the risks posed by the world's 16,000 nuclear warheads. The two countries, out of nine nations believed to have nuclear weapons, had shunned two earlier gatherings in Norway last year and in Mexico this March.” Full coverage via AFP. http://bit.ly/1vEV7gO

Letter - “We believe the risks posed by nuclear weapons and the international dynamics that could lead to nuclear weapons being used are under-estimated or insufficiently understood by world leaders,” writes the European Leadership Network in a letter to the Vienna Conference on the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons.

--The Network, which includes two former British defence secretaries, a former chief of the defense staff, and top diplomats from around the EU, argues that “too many nuclear weapons in the world remain ready to launch on short notice, greatly increasing the chances of an accident,” and that such policies are “a vestige of the Cold War.” Read the full letter here. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1ymQsgx

Tweet - @KelseyDav: Great to see this news from #HINW14 in Vienna! Catholic Church in Dramatic Revision of Nuclear Weapons Stance http://t.co/f1dBdhRFjc

Affordability problem - When it comes to nuclear weapons, “We’ve got a big affordability problem out there,” said Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition Frank Kendall on Friday. As Tony Capaccio and John Hughes report for Bloomberg, “the next Defense secretary will review options to improve or replace the Ohio-class nuclear-missile submarine, ICBMs, and nuclear cruise missiles.” It remains unclear how the Pentagon will pay for all of these initiatives in the current budgetary climate. Full coverage here. (paywall) http://bit.ly/1yvLpKF

Hillary on Iran - Hillary Clinton has distanced herself from many of the unpopular policies of the Obama administration, but remains “closely tied to current U.S. diplomatic efforts toward Iran aimed at curbing Tehran’s nuclear program,” write Jay Solomon and Peter Nicholas for The Wall Street Journal.

--“Mrs. Clinton has taken credit for initiating secret talks with Iran in 2012,” and one of her closest foreign-policy advisers, Jake Sullivan, remains one of the Obama administration’s top nuclear negotiators. If Clinton does decide to run in 2016, the Iran talks are likely to be a “top foreign-policy issue.” Full story here. http://on.wsj.com/1w5Gy5N

Nuclear contractors fined $54 million - “New Mexico officials issued fines Saturday of $54 million against two contractors for errors in handling nuclear waste that led to a shutdown earlier this year of the nation’s only operating dump for nuclear weapons waste.”

--“The fines come amid a growing frustration among state environmental regulators with errors and sloppy practices by U.S. Energy Department contractors that handle radioactive wastes. The cleanup schedules at nuclear weapons sites across the nation are decades behind schedule, and the New Mexico accident threatens to delay them further.” Full story by Ralph Vartabedian in the Los Angeles Times. http://lat.ms/1vvZS7v

Quick Hits:

--“Ashton to stay on as EU special adviser on Iran nuclear talks” by Adrian Croft for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1A8zyEo

--“Nuclear weapons: Not as secure as you think,” by D. Parvaz for Al-Jazeera. http://bit.ly/1yoEjg9

--“Without a nuclear deal, Iran's economy will be on 'its knees': report,” by Robert Ferris for CNBC. http://cnb.cx/1yZNAZU

--“Letters to the Editor: Sen. Feinstein’s nuclear proposal.” Via The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1G8WPbt

--“Congress Reaffirms Support for Preventing Theft of Russian Nuclear Material,” by Nickolas Roth for Harvard Belfer Center’s Nuclear Security Matters. http://bit.ly/1q2ae31

--“Talk is cheap: Washington attends the humanitarian initiative on nuclear weapons impacts,” by Sharon Squassoni for the blog of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. http://bit.ly/15ZM8ND

Events:

--“The Budapest Memorandum at 20: The United States, Ukraine and Security Assurances.” Featuring Robert Einhorn, Ambassador Stephen Pifer and Oleksandr Zaytsev. Located at the Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington, DC, 20036, Saul/Zilkha Rooms. Tuesday, December 9 from 2:00 - 3:30 pm. RSVP online. http://ow.ly/FfAgI

--“Project on Nuclear Issues Winter Conference," hosted by CSIS from December 9-10. Located at 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1pYd6xV

--“Keynote Address at the Project on Nuclear Issues Winter Conference,” by Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James, from 6:15-7:45 p.m. on December 9th at CSIS. Located at 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington. Webcast on the CSIS website. http://csis.org/

--“The U.S., Israel and the regional dimensions of an Iran nuclear deal.” A panel discussion hosted by New America. Featuring Shlomo Brom, Suzanne DiMaggio and Ilan Goldenberg. Wednesday, December 10, 3:00 p.m. - 4:30 p.m.. Located at New America’s offices at 1899 L Street NW, Suite 400, Washington, DC, 20036. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/15OlS8U

--"Did the Nuclear Negotiations Include Iran's Ballistic Missiles?" Featuring Michael Elleman. Friday December 12 from 2:00p.m.-3:00 p.m. Located at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2121 K St, NW, Washington DC. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/12AAjft

--“Commission to Review the Effectiveness of the National Energy Laboratories,” public meeting on December 15 at the Institute for Defense Analyses. Located at 4850 Mark Center Drive, Room 1301, Alexandria, VA. RSVP by 5:00 p.m. on Dec. 10 to Karen Gibson by email at crenel@hq.doe.gov.

--“Breaking the Stalemate in U.S.-South Korea Nuclear Cooperation Negotiations,” featuring Scott Snyder. From noon-1:30 p.m. on December 17 at the Global America Business Institute. Located at 1001 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 435, Washington. RSVP to Christina Sookyung Jung by email at csjung@thegabi.com.

*Correction: Our Friday edition characterized David Albright, Michael Doran and Gary Samore as “expected to make the case against diplomacy with Iran” and support new sanctions in a hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. That was an overstatement. The associated article from The Nation more accurately notes that the witnesses “were probably expected to agree with Senate hawks.” To learn more of the witnesses positions on Iran negotiations, read their written testimonies here. http://1.usa.gov/1HVqmsN