Former Defense Officials Raise Concerns on Nuclear Triad Recapitalization

August 1, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka

Perry-Abizaid Report - Modernizing the U.S. nuclear triad “will involve substantial outlays over the coming decades, and the merits of some aspects of this expensive recapitalization can be debated,” writes the National Defense Panel, co-chaired by former Secretary of Defense William Perry and Gen. John Abizaid in a their assessment of the 2014 Quadrennial Review. “Recapitalization of all three legs of the nuclear Triad with associated weapons could cost between $600 billion and $1 trillion over a thirty year period, the costs of which would likely come at the expense of needed improvements in conventional forces.”

--“Given this existential importance of the nuclear deterrent, we recommend that the Administration and Congress urgently and jointly undertake a new study to examine the intellectual underpinnings of our strategic deterrence policy. We feel this is particularly urgent in the face of limited resources and in light of the changing international environment characterized by a multi-polar world of states possessing nuclear arms and biological weapons, either of which could pose an existential threat to the United States.” Other panel members include Gen. James Cartwright, Amb. Eric Edelman, Michèle Flournoy, Lt. Gen. Frank Kearny, Lt. Gen. Michael Maples, Rep. Jim Marshall, Gen. Gregory Martin and Sen. Jim Talent. Full report here. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1of0oTE

Political firing at LANL - “Santa Fe resident James Doyle says he’s been burned by political retaliation for bucking the pro-nuclear weapons culture at Los Alamos National Laboratory. After 17 years of employment, Doyle was fired by the lab July 8” after the lab retroactively classified an article Doyle authored defending the political theories undergirding President Obama’s nuclear policies. “A day later, Doyle was fired,” reports Patrick Malone for The New Mexican. http://bit.ly/1m5Epi7

--The Center for Public Integrity first broke the story yesterday. http://bit.ly/1n74ih1

--This is the article in dispute: “Why Eliminate Nuclear Weapons?” by James E. Doyle in Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, February, 2013. http://bit.ly/1rM4d6E

--In his own words: “Developing technology and techniques to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and nuclear materials is one of the core missions of the lab. It is taken very seriously, and valuable contributions to national and global security are made by Los Alamos employees...But there is something inherently contradictory about an organization that affirms the benefits of nuclear weapons for the United States and its allies but wants to deny them to everyone else. This is a U.S. government policy issue, but the lab cannot pretend that this contradiction does not exist,” said Doyle to The New Mexican.

Baby with the bathwater - “For congressional hawks claiming to take a tough line against Iran's nuclear program, cutting off funding for enhanced International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections over that program seems like an odd approach,” writes Ryan Costello in the Huffington Post. “Yet a new bill introduced by the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee would threaten to do just that.”

--“The ‘Iran Nuclear Negotiations Act of 2014,’ recently introduced by Senator Bob Corker (R-TN) and a group of Republican Iran hawks, would tee up a congressional vote of disapproval within a matter of days if the P5+1 and Iran succeed in striking a comprehensive agreement on Iran's nuclear program. If passed, the vote would block any State Department funds from being used to implement an agreement.”

--“That's a big problem, because U.S. funding for the IAEA is included in the State Department's budget. That means the first casualty of a vote of disapproval would be the enhanced IAEA inspections that would be included in a deal to ensure Iran fulfills its commitments and which would deter both overt and covert Iranian nuclear breakout… threatening to torpedo a deal within days of the striking of a nuclear accord, in part by cutting off funding for the international watchdogs that guard against an Iranian nuclear weapon, is a ham-handed approach that will not achieve any objective other than sabotaging efforts to peacefully resolve the Iranian nuclear issue.” Full piece here. http://huff.to/1pvvL09

NATO - “NATO and Poland joined with the United States on Wednesday in voicing concerns that Russia was in violation of a Cold War-era nuclear missile treaty,” Global Security Newswire reports. “NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen in a statement said the INF treaty today ‘remains a key element of Euro-Atlantic security -- one that benefits our mutual security and must be preserved.’ He called on the Kremlin to ‘work constructively to resolve’ issues related to compliance.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1nZ7QIj

Tweet - @armscontrolnow: Must-Read Resources on the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty via @armscontrolnow #Russia #nuclear http://conta.cc/1pM4ELV

Reassurances - “Russia's top general, Valery Gerasimov, told the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff on Thursday that Moscow was committed to adhering to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Treaty after Washington accused Russia of violating the agreement,” writes Thomas Grove in Reuters. Full article here. http://reut.rs/1odDkce

Editor’s note - Early Warning will be on a summer schedule for August, publishing only on Tuesdays and Thursdays. We’ll resume our normal schedule after Labor Day. In the meantime, we hope you have the chance to take in some rays or take a dip in the pool.

Defending the mission - “Air Force brass on Wednesday defended their decision to spare nuclear-arms personnel from the force cutbacks happening in other parts of the service,” writes Rachel Oswald in Global Security Newswire. “The Air Force announced in June that it had decided to retain 4,000 airmen working in the nuclear mission who would otherwise have faced possible involuntary separation from the service. In explaining the decision, Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James said it was necessary to have ‘full manning in our nuclear positions’ because of the ‘vital importance of this mission.’” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1m5mZSR

Nuclear proposal - “As new peace talks approach, Nawaz Sharif's government eyes a ‘very comprehensive proposal’ with India on easing atomic-arms tensions,” writes Elaine Grossman in Global Security Newswire. “A fresh bid by Islamabad to reduce bilateral nuclear stockpiles or the risk of their use could add an unexpected dimension to the high-level diplomacy slated to begin Aug. 25, when the Indian foreign secretary meets with her counterpart in the Pakistani capital.”

--“We have [a] very comprehensive proposal that we have given to India, to establish an understanding on the strategic -- meaning the non-conventional -- as well as on the conventional weapons," a senior Pakistani figure told reporters while in Washington for talks with U.S. officials. "We are very proactive on this." Full story here. http://bit.ly/1ljjEzq

Quick-hits:

--“Just a Hint of Iran Sanctions Risk Stalls Bank Transactions” by Joel Schectman in The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/1kp9mD5

--“To Find America’s Nuclear Missiles, Try Google Maps” by Geoff Brumfiel for NPR. http://n.pr/1kaXBzz

Events:

--“Hiroshima Peace Commemoration.” Sponsored by the DC Hiroshima-Nagasaki Peace Committee. August 5 at 6:30 at the Martin Luther King, Jr. Memorial, 1964 Independence Ave., SW, Washington.

--“The Nuclear Zero Lawsuits: Why the Tiny Marshall Islands Took on the Nuclear Nine.” Discussion with Rick Wayman, Neisen Laukon, and Erica Fein. August 6 from 3:00 to 4:00. Registration for online webinar available here. http://bit.ly/1k8nf8p