Nuclear Insecurity in Pakistan

September 6, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Leah Fae Cochran

Pakistan’s growing arsenal - "The idea that tactical nukes could be used against Indian tanks on Pakistan's territory creates the kind of atmosphere that greatly shortens the distance to apocalypse,” said Pervez Hoodbhoy in an article by Tom Hundley for Foreign Policy. Hundley’s article explains the arms race dynamics in South Asia and questions the security of Pakistan and its arsenal.

--”Military analysts from [India and Pakistan] still say that a nuclear exchange triggered by miscalculation, miscommunication, or panic is far more likely than terrorists stealing a weapon -- and, significantly, that the odds of such an exchange increase with the deployment of battlefield nukes.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/RdKBcM

Tweet - @Plough_shares: INTERNSHIP OPPORTUNITY! PF is looking for 2 interns to work in our Washington DC office. Interested? Details here: http://owl.li/duHF1

Welcome to Early Warning - Subscribe to our morning email or follow us on twitter.

--Have a tip? Email earlywarning@ploughshares.org. Want to support this work? Click here.

Still aimed at the Fulda Gap - Germany has agreed to allow NATO to keep U.S. nuclear warheads at airbases in the country and has agreed to let the U.S. modernize the bombs. This is political shift from early statements from Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle’s push to remove the warheads from Germany. UPI has the story. http://bit.ly/TYPJ19

--Germany’s offer to let the U.S. modernize the bombs on its soil is quite generous, considering that effort will only cost U.S. taxpayers the better part of $10 billion. http://bit.ly/OWe7Rc

Tweet - @ScovillePF: Accepting apps for recent grads to work w/NGOs in DC for 6-9 months on peace & security. Apply by Oct. 1. http://bit.ly/Q28a6R

Stay close - Potential risks to Pakistan’s nuclear security means that America should stay close to Pakistan despite recent difficulties in the relationship, argues Daniel Painter of the American Security Project. In a concise report Painter provides the background of and concerns surrounding Pakistan’s swiftly expanding nuclear arsenal.

-- “In the frustrating, complex process of working with Pakistan, it is tempting to simply walk away, writing Pakistan off as rogue state. This would be a mistake. National security demands the U.S. continue to engage Pakistan to address these nuclear threats,” writes Painter. Full report here (pdf) http://bit.ly/OZvrVq

Tweet - @FitzpatrickIISS: Compare Pakistan's 8.5 years to a nuke device vs. Iran's 27 years work on enrichment to date. Maybe Iran isn't that much into a bomb.

The one thing - “While Iran’s ongoing nuclear enrichment program could be used to gather the material needed for a bomb, there is no definitive evidence that Iran has kicked off such a weaponization effort,” writes Yousaf Butt in The Christian Science Monitor. “The one thing that would almost surely launch an Iranian drive to weaponize, however, would be an Israeli strike.” http://bit.ly/SkcSzY

Tweet - @FMWG: We are pleased to announce Miles Pomper from @CNS_DC as the new co-chair of the Fissile Materials Working Group. Thanks to @AlexandraIToma for her service.

Event - “The Last Nuclear Test 20 Years Later: Status and Prospects for the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,” at the American Security Project. September 26 12:30-1:00 pm. RSVP here: http://bit.ly/T08G39

The take aways - The “Three Things You Need to Know About the IAEA Report on Iran,” by Kate Gould: (1) Iran is still not building nuclear weapons, (2) Experts agree that the report is not a game changer, and (3) There is still time and space for diplomacy. A deal between Iran and the West trading sanctions relief for limits to Iran’s enrichment is still possible. The Hill has the op-ed. http://bit.ly/UsDxrA

Cheater, cheater - “A security official at Oak Ridge’s Y-12 nuclear weapons plant has been suspended after inspectors found evidence of possible cheating on security tests,” reports AP. http://wapo.st/Odewlf