US, Iranian Leaders: Deal Is Within Reach

Historic opportunity - “The long-running saga of Iran’s standoff with the west has become a tale of two presidents,” writes Simon Tisdall in The Guardian. “A deal could transform Rouhani’s so-far lacklustre presidency, giving it historic importance. It could do the same for Obama. And they both know it.”

--“Hardliners opposed on ideological and security grounds to detente are a problem both presidents share,” and both will have to work to protect the deal from domestic critics determined to play spoiler. http://bit.ly/18T4IrQ

Kerry and Rouhani - “We have not yet reached the finish line, but make no mistake, we have the opportunity to try to get this right,” U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said on Saturday as a session of talks over Iran’s nuclear program wrapped up in Lausanne, Switzerland.

--Iranian president Hassan Rouhani described the current phase of negotiations as decisive, saying that, “The coming days or weeks will be very tough, as taking the final step is always somewhat difficult.” Talks are due to resume this week, Bloomberg reports. http://bloom.bg/1ChdpHY

Tweet - @Cirincione: Here is the link to the #JSt2015 panel on Iran. Filled with unique, informed analysis. Doesn't get much better. http://bit.ly/18T7rl9

Khamenei - In a Norwuz address this weekend, Iran’s Supreme Leader urged Iranians to support the nuclear negotiations, an important sign as talks enter a critical phase. However, in a reminder that serious gaps remain, Ayatollah Khamenei repeated Iran’s demand that sanctions be lifted immediately, rather than gradually, as the West prefers. The LA Times reports. http://lat.ms/1OnKsiR

Keep talking - “In times of rising tension... countries need venues in which to air differences, and the United States and Russia are no exception,” writes Sharon Squassoni for Reuters.

--“Traditionally, arms control treaties have not only provided stability and predictability in strategic affairs but also afforded American and Russian officials opportunities to develop working relationships and keep dialogue open even if broader political relations have deteriorated. Now more than ever, U.S. and Russian officials need to come back to the table and not just talk, but also listen.” Full column here. http://reut.rs/1xcREsx

True diplomacy - “Iran's deplorable record is not a reason to walk away. It is the very reason we must hammer out an iron-clad agreement to ensure Iran cannot get its hands on a nuclear bomb” writes Ploughshares Fund President Joe Cirincione in the Huffington Post.

--“Claims that we should let the talks collapse and hold out for a better deal are pure fantasy. If we collapse the talks China, Russia and our own allies would walk away from us. Sanctions will unravel, not strengthen. The risk of war will increase. And war with Iran would make the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan look like warm-up acts.” http://huff.to/18SWY9i

Missile standoff - “The U.S. is considering placing a Thaad ballistic missile defense system in South Korea to counter improved North Korean weapon technology… [but] China fears the U.S. could use Thaad to target its missiles and has called on South Korea to reject deployment,” reports Sam Kim for Bloomberg. http://bloom.bg/1EIikBo

Rhetoric? - French officials are talking a different tack on some details of the Iran nuclear talks, putting them at odds with their allies in the negotiations. French officials argue that emphasizing the March 31 deadline for a framework agreement is “a bad tactic,” putting pressure on the West “to conclude [a deal] at any price.”

--Secretary of State John Kerry pushed back, emphasizing that a framework deal by the end of the month is within reach. And U.S. officials argue that the French position may be more rhetoric than substance - emphasizing that U.S. allies play a key role in talks that are often viewed through a U.S.-Iran lens. http://nyti.ms/1CKry0V

Nuke questions - The future of Scotland's Faslane naval base, home to the UK’s aging nuclear-armed submarines may be directly tied to the fate of the Scottish National Party, which has promised to rid Scotland of nuclear weapons. Despite losing its bid last year for Scottish independence, the SNP has gained strength in the polls and has rekindled the debate about the necessity of the UK maintaining its nuclear deterrence. Full story by Stephen Castle for the New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1Bnx5oQ

Benefits of a deal - “Iran's reemergence into the international community in a postnuclear deal environment would allow the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to assert its interests in the region, and to lay out expectations of Iran as a constructive partner. It might even lead to quiet, back-channel diplomacy about the future of Syria without al-Assad. None of this is possible in the absence of the nuclear deal.” Jacqueline Shire, former member of the UN Panel of Experts on Iran, for CNN. http://cnn.it/1xd68bN

Tweet - @Cirincione: Delighted to announce the New @Plough_shares Web Site. Come take a look. It is gorgeous! http://www.ploughshares.org/

Quick Hits:

--“Israel reaches out to France before resumption of Iran nuclear talks,” by Dan Williams and John Irish for Reuters. http://yhoo.it/1B9C5hM

--“Navy should develop new ship and sub reactors that don’t use weapons-grade uranium, experts say,” by Douglas Birch for Up in Arms. http://bit.ly/1BnyHil

--“CIA's Brennan: Iran knows it would face consequences for nuclear program,” report by Reuters. http://reut.rs/1ECvzRG

--“Jordan and Russia to sign $10b nuclear deal this month,” in The Jerusalem Post. http://bit.ly/1HsXQQT

Events:

--Commission to Review the Effectiveness of the National Energy Laboratories, public meeting. March 24 from 10:00 AM - 3:30 PM. Located at the Hilton at Mark Center, Laurel Conference Room, 5000 Seminary Road, Alexandria, VA. RSVP required. http://1.usa.gov/1MNE7JW

--House Appropriations Subcommittee on Energy and Water. Hearing on the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Nuclear Nonproliferation and Naval Reactors budgets. With Frank Klotz, Administrator, NNSA; Anne Harrington, Deputy Administrator for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation, NNSA; and Adm. John Richardson, Director, Naval Reactors. March 25 at 9:30 AM. Located in 2362-B Rayburn House Office Building, Washington DC. Webcast on the committee website. http://1.usa.gov/1ptJEtv

--“Deal or no deal? Negotiating with Iran.” Featuring Robert Einhorn, Senior Fellow, Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Initiative of Brookings, William Galston, Senior Fellow, Governance Studies of Brookings and Suzanne Maloney, Senior Fellow, Center for Middle East Policy of Brookings. April 1 from 10:00AM – 11:30 AM. Located at The Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington, DC 2003. http://brook.gs/1x8WE1a