Safety Concerns at Iran’s Bushehr Reactor

On the radar: Transparency needed; Incentives with N. Korea; GBI testing; India’s triad; MOX costs creeping; Gen. Cartwright on Iran; and Perhaps the first human likeness drawn on a computer.

Date | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Safety through transparency - Iran’s Bushehr reactor is not a Chernobyl in the making and is not a proliferation threat, but serious concerns remain about Iran’s ability to safely operate the reactor writes Mark Fitzpatrick in The National.

--“Iran's penchant for nuclear secrecy is incompatible with nuclear safety norms. A nuclear-safety culture requires openness, frank acknowledgement of mistakes and sharing of information with international peers. Iran's nuclear programme is not known for any of these attributes,” writes Fitzpatrick.

--Suggestion: “Russia plans to transfer operational management of Bushehr to Iran in March. Shouldn't this be delayed until after Iran adheres to international norms and joins the Nuclear Safety Convention?” Full article here. http://bit.ly/X3OxKW

Carrots and sticks - “Diplomacy, not threats or sanctions – and certainly not military action – is the only viable path to resolution [with North Korea],” writes Charles Armstrong for CNN.

--”The United States and the United Nations have little choice but to impose sanctions in response to North Korea’s actions...But it is hard to see how such sanctions can deter a determined and defiant North Korea, especially if the sanctions are not rigorously enforced. The best we can hope for is that the latest confrontation will finally bring all sides together.” http://bit.ly/14o6JpH

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Flight test - The Missile Defense Agency “successfully” completed a flight test of a ground-based interceptor (GBI). Although no test target was involved and no intercept attempted, the Pentagon announced that data from the flight “will be used to improve confidence for future intercept missions.” http://1.usa.gov/VrMk1F

If at first you don’t succeed - The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) saw the latest flight test of the GBI as a necessity because the test would validate efforts to correct a design flaw exposed by a failed test three years ago. After Saturday’s “successful” flight test, MDA plans to attempt an intercept test in spring or summer. George Lewis at Mostly Missile Defense has the background. http://bit.ly/WlwKCc

Capabilities - Does North Korea have the ability to “target” the US with its nuclear program, as announcements from the Hermit Kingdom have suggested?

--Not really. North Korea has the ability to produce fissile material for nuclear explosive devices, but it does not yet have a warhead small enough to fit on a missile nor the ability to put a warhead on target at intercontinental ranges. Jesse Emspak at Discovery News has the story. http://owl.li/hbYxs

Tweet - @carnegienpp: India test fires missile from under sea, completes nuclear triad http://t.co/nQMxApVp

Syria - “Buzz Bomb: Why Everyone’s wrong about Assad’s zombie gas.” by Jeffrey Lewis in Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/WwZQfd

Unconfirmed - “Reuters has been unable to verify reports since Friday of an explosion at the underground Fordow bunker...that some Israeli and Western media have said caused significant damage.” http://owl.li/hc5fa

MOX - The price tag of the Mixed Oxide (MOX) Fuel Fabrication Facility is expected to reach nearly $7 billion - $2 billion more than currently projected. Sammy Fretwell at The State looks into the plutonium program’s troubles, government investigations into it, and the program’s congressional backers. http://bit.ly/110Ys6G

Tweet - @armscontrolnow: Max M. Kampelman, lawyer, diplomat, nuclear disarmament advocate, dies at 92. http://bit.ly/Wsv4r5

Report - “Taking Stock and Moving Forward on the Issue of the Parchin High Explosives Test Site” by David Albright and Robert Avagyan of ISIS. (pdf) http://bit.ly/VhILY8

Events:

--”Revitalizing the National Security Labs: Beyond the Nuclear Deterrent.” Elizabeth Turpen. January 29, 9:00-10:30 a.m. @ the Elliott School of International Affairs. http://owl.li/h5MG0

--”Twenty Years of Transformation in South Asia.” Stability of Deterrence in South Asia. January 31, 9:00 a.m.-5:00 p.m. @ the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. http://owl.li/hbQXh

--Confirmation hearing on the nomination of former Sen. Chuck Hagel. January 31, 9:30 a.m. @ Dirksen Senate Office Building, Room SD-G50. http://owl.li/h5Njc

--”Dealing with a Nuclear Iran: Redlines and Deadlines.” Gen. James Cartwright, Former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and seven other speakers. February 6, 8:30 a.m.-12:30 p.m. @ CSIS. http://owl.li/hbQKm

--”What to do about Nuclear Outliers Iran and North Korea?” Robert Litwak, Vice President for Scholars and Academic Relations and Director of Int. Security Studies, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. February 6, 12:00-1:30 p.m. @ George Washington University. http://owl.li/hbTo6

Dessert:

Cold War graphics design - The first human likeness to ever appear on a computer screen might have been pin-up girl drawn by an IBM employee on the screen of a U.S. early warning air defense system in 1956.

--The pin-up girl graphic was used in a diagnostic program. “Operators in later decades remember it as a lighthearted way to pass the dull hours of the late shift when traffic was slow or the standby machine was not in service.” From Benj Edwards at The Atlantic. http://bit.ly/WaTOEE