Reductions to World’s Nuclear Stockpiles Slow

World arsenal numbers out - The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute has released a report on trends in world nuclear forces. “Global nuclear weapon inventories have been declining since they peaked at nearly 70,000 nuclear warheads in the mid-1980s. The decline has been due primarily to cuts made in the Russian and US nuclear forces as a result of three arms limitation treaties since 1991 as well as unilateral force reductions,” write Shannon Kile and Hans Kristensen.

--“However, the pace of their reductions appears to be slowing compared with a decade ago, and neither Russia nor the USA — which together account for nearly 93 per cent of nuclear weapons in the world — has made significant reductions in its deployed strategic nuclear forces since [2011] ... The nuclear arsenals of the other nuclear weapon-possessing states are considerably smaller, but all are either developing or deploying new weapon systems or have announced their intention to do so.” Find the report here. http://bit.ly/1Ugmokq

See also - “Watchdog: Nuclear powers shrinking, modernizing arsenals,” by Karl Ritter for the AP. http://wapo.st/1Uq4Xzf

Time for new arms control debate - “Little to no discussion has focused on the… issue of how many weapons and what technologies are needed to support the nation’s strategic nuclear deterrence… ‘Now the discussion is that we can’t afford the weapons’ said Amy Woolf, nuclear weapons policy specialist at the Congressional Research Service. ‘The conversation of requirements, roles and missions was replaced by a budget conversation,’” writes Sandra Erwin for National Defense.

--Former Assistant Secretary of Defense Andrew Weber “has joined former Defense Secretary Bill Perry as a vocal opponent of the ALCM and its planned replacement — known as the long-range strike option, or LRSO — a weapon that they argue is unnecessary for deterrence and more likely than any other to set off a nuclear Armageddon… Ending the LRSO program would be ‘low hanging fruit’ in the nuclear requirements debate, said Weber. Nuclear-armed cruise missiles are destabilizing and viewed around the world as disasters waiting to happen, he added.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/1U99VlI

See also - “Flawed Pentagon Nuclear Cruise Missile Advocacy,” by Hans Kristensen for the Federation of American Scientists. http://bit.ly/1XkOuym

Cost of bomber kept secret - “The Senate Armed Services Committee issued a severe blow to transparency and fiscal responsibility last month. In a closed-door vote, they eliminated a requirement to disclose the development cost of the Air Force’s new B-21 stealth bomber,” writes Dan Grazier for the Project on Government Oversight.

--“Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCain (R-AZ) had included language in the 2017 National Defense Authorization Act requiring the Air Force to release the dollar amount of the B-21’s Engineering and Manufacturing Development or Congress would withhold funds from the program. ‘[T]he American people deserve to know how many of their hard earned tax dollars will be spent… on a major defense program expected to exceed $100 billion in total,’ the Arizona Senator wrote in a letter to Secretary of the Air Force Deborah Lee James on March 10.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/237rzGU

Bad logic behind new cruise missile - “President Obama has acknowledged that existing U.S. and global nuclear weapons capabilities already provide more than enough nuclear killing power. Yet, his administration has to date pursued a costly, ‘all-of-the-above’ plan to maintain and upgrade U.S. nuclear forces at force levels that exceed nuclear deterrence requirements,” writes Kingston Reif for the Arms Control Association.

--“One of the most controversial pieces of this approach is the Air Force’s proposal to build a new fleet of roughly 1,000 nuclear-capable air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs) and refurbish the warhead for the weapon. The replacement is known as the long-range standoff cruise missile, or LRSO… The estimated $20-$30 billion cost to buy the LRSO and W80-4 [nuclear warhead] would be much better spent on other parts of U.S. nuclear and non-nuclear mission areas.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1YogG2B

Tweet - @StephenUCS: Too many close calls. Let's get off the Wheel of Near Misfortune http://bit.ly/1Ont8O8 #endhairtrigger

Doubling down on faulty defense - Congress is reviewing a 1999 law governing the country’s missile defense system this week. “That lawmakers are taking a renewed look at our missile defense system is long overdue but instead of fixing its problems, Congress appears hellbent on doubling down on this overpriced, ineffective product,” writes Stephen Young for Politico. He argues the 1999 law was right to specify that the missile defense system should only guard against a limited attack, to avoid spurring other countries to increase their arsenals.

--“Now, Republicans in Congress seem to want to make the problem even worse. In the House, Rep. Trent Franks (R-Ariz.) passed a surprise amendment revising the National Missile Defense Act to remove the words ‘effective’ and ‘limited’ and inserted language supporting a ‘robust layered’ defense. On the other side of Congress, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) passed an amendment that simply removes the word ‘limited.’ … [These changes would encourage] Russia and China to expand, rather than reduce, their nuclear arsenals.” Full article here. http://politi.co/1U4yRph

Tweet - @globalzero: 34 years ago, one million people marched in NYC to call for an end to nuclear weapons. http://nyti.ms/1UhLorE

Iran Deal as a model - “Practically no attention was paid in the media or in Congress to the possibility that the nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), could provide opportunities to strengthen the global nonproliferation regime… The JCPOA contains a number of innovations that could in future years be applied in other countries to bolster confidence that their nuclear programs will be exclusively peaceful,” writes George Perkovich for the Carnegie Endowment. Full piece here. http://ceip.org/21bR3Bk

See also - “The Iran nuclear deal has been a Middle East game-changer,” by Gary Sick and Frank G. Wisner for The Plain Dealer. http://bit.ly/1ZL9I6F

Trump shouldn’t become the nuclear monarch - “What would it mean to have Trump’s fingers on the nuclear button? We don't really know, but we do know this: In the atomic age, when decisions must be made very quickly, the presidency has evolved into something akin to a nuclear monarchy … His former GOP rival, Marco Rubio, repeated his earlier concerns about Trump only this week, saying America can't give ‘the nuclear codes of the United States to an erratic individual,’” writes Bruce Blair for Politico. http://politi.co/1Oi7f31

Reset needed in North Korea-US relations - “US policy toward North Korea has reached a dead end. Built upon a foundation of dubious assumptions, the Obama administration’s approach — whether called ‘strategic patience’ or by some other name — has failed to achieve any progress toward US objectives in the region and no longer serves US foreign policy and national security interests,” writes Joel Wit in a report for the US-Korea Institute at SAIS.

--“The US government needs to ratchet up pressure on the DPRK. At the same time, it should make clear to the North and China that Washington is prepared to engage in comprehensive negotiations with the DPRK on a peace treaty to replace the armistice, linked to limiting, reducing and eventually eliminating the threat from North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction and normalizing US-DPRK relations.” Read the full report here. http://bit.ly/1XUtlMt

Quick Hits:

--“U.S. should propose comprehensive peace treaty talks with N.Korea: Joel Wit,” by Chang Jae-soon for Yonhap. http://bit.ly/1Q12lrr

--“The Doomsday Clock: Nuclear weapons, climate change and our prospects for survival,” by Noam Chomsky via War is Boring. http://bit.ly/1YosxOc

--“High-level meeting urges nuke test ban treaty ratification,” by George Jahn for the AP. http://apne.ws/1tu3RZz

--“U.S. Treasury Guidance Aids Iran Deal Compliance, Lawyers Say,” by Samuel Rubenfeld for The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/1UaMxnT

--“Needle in a Haystack: How North Korea Could Fight a Nuclear War,” by Garth McLennan for 38 North. http://bit.ly/1Uslra0

--“Recommendations for Improving Communication with Journalists to Enhance Public Safety in the Event of a Nuclear or Radiological Emergency,” from the Atomic Reporters at the Stanley Foundation. http://bit.ly/1UslR08

--“Nuclear codes: A president's awesome power,” by Mark Hertling for CNN. http://cnn.it/1UR9iXY

--“Viewpoint: India's nuclear lobbying and an increasingly isolated Pakistan,” by Ahmed Rashid for the BBC. http://bbc.in/1VXkTu3

Events:

--“Can the U.S. Work with Iran: Challenges and Opportunities,” with Ben Rhodes, Deputy National Security Advisor; and thirteen other speakers. June 16 at 9:00 a.m. at the Atlantic Council, 1030 15th St., NW, Washington. RSVP online.http://bit.ly/1ZB4oCQ

--“After the Prague Agenda: The Future of U.S. Nuclear Security,” featuring Frank Klotz, Administrator, National Nuclear Security Administration. June 30 from 6:30 to 7:30 p.m. at the World Affairs Council, 312 Sutter St., Suite 200, San Francisco. Register online. http://apne.ws/1Onpcgo

--“"Nuclear Policy for the Next Administration,” with Christopher Peble, Cato Institute; Kelsey Davenport, Arms Control Association; and Steven Pifer, Brookings Institute. July 6 at 6:00 p.m. at the American Foreign Service Association, 2010 E St. NW, Washington. http://bit.ly/1ZOcqs3