RAND Report: U.S. Nukes Won’t Save Europe

Nukes in Europe have little utility - A new RAND report has concluded that nuclear weapons are severely limited in their ability to protect the Baltic States from Russian aggression. If NATO were to respond to the invasion of a member state by “taking a page from its Cold War doctrine of ‘massive retaliation,’ and threaten Moscow with a nuclear response,” it could have have serious and unintended consequences.

--“The deterrent impact of such a threat draws power from the implicit risk of igniting an escalatory spiral that swiftly reaches the level of nuclear exchanges between the Russian and U.S. homelands. Unfortunately, once deterrence has failed — which would clearly be the case once Russia had crossed the Rubicon of attacking NATO member states — that same risk would tend to greatly undermine [the credibility of the threat of nuclear use] since it may seem highly unlikely to Moscow that the United States would be willing to exchange New York for Riga.”

--“Coupled with the general direction of U.S. defense policy, which has been to de-emphasize the value of nuclear weapons, and the likely unwillingness of NATO’s European members, especially the Baltic states themselves, to see their continent or countries turned into a nuclear battlefield, this lack of believability makes [the use of nuclear weapons] both unlikely and unpalatable.” Full report here. http://bit.ly/20zkyh0

See also - “RAND Report Questions Nuclear Role in Defending Baltic States,” by Hans Kristensen for the Federation of American Scientists. http://bit.ly/1K0smom

We need a better plan - “If history is any guide, modernizing the nuclear arsenal will be a difficult endeavor… The executive branch should review nuclear spending and put in place an affordable plan for the coming decades. If it does not, the shape of the next nuclear arsenal will likely be set by the vagaries of congressional politics as they seek to curtail whichever programs happen to face cost overruns,” Larry Korb and Adam Mount write in a new report for the Center for American Progress.

--“This report describes four changes to U.S. nuclear modernization plans that ensure strategic stability in a cost-effective way:

1. Reducing the planned number of submarines from 12 to 10.
2. Cancellation of the new cruise missile.
3. Elimination of the tactical nuclear mission.
4. A gradual reduction in the size of the ICBM force.

--Collectively, these changes could save roughly $120 billion over the next 30 years.” Full report here. http://ampr.gs/1X5BvO3

Have your own plan? Test it here - Along with the above report, the Center for American Progress created an interactive site comparing the current arsenal, the President’s request and CAP’s proposal. It also invites users to build their own arsenal and find out how much it would cost. Try it out here. http://ampr.gs/1o6wt8l

Video - Watch Larry Korb, Adam Mount, Gen. Eugene Habiger and Todd Harrison discuss the CAP report and its implications at a Center for American Progress symposium, Setting Priorities for Nuclear Modernization. http://ampr.gs/1WQb4vJ

Tweet - @Cirincione: "I cannot conceive of a situation where we would use nuclear weapons unless they were used against us first," Gen. Habiger. #nonewnukes

See also - “New report recommends White House kill B61-12 and LRSO,” by James Drew for Flightglobal. http://bit.ly/23LevIN

Top-secret trash - Reporting by The Center for Public Integrity has revealed that workers at the Y-12 nuclear facility in Tennessee have been disposing of classified documents in standard trash bags destined for an open landfill. “Investigation by the National Nuclear Security Administration, which oversees such work, led officials to conclude that nuclear secrets had been thrown away with lax security at the Tennessee plant for more than 20 years.”

--“Many of the workers investigators interviewed mistakenly believed the waste was trucked off to a dump approved for disposal of classified material and guarded to prevent theft. But since 2005, the loads were taken to a landfill that’s not approved for classified material.”

--“Protection of nuclear materials and secrets at Y-12 has been under scrutiny since July 28, 2012, when an 82-year-old nun and two more peace protestors penetrated the security perimeter and advanced far enough to scrawl graffiti on a storage vault full of weapon-grade nuclear materials.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1SGcatm

Planned test sparks criticism - “North Korea has indicated that it will launch a satellite in the coming days, a United Nations agency said, drawing condemnation from South Korea and Japan. Pyongyang told the International Maritime Organization on Tuesday that it intends to launch an Earth observation satellite between February 8 and 25,” report Barbara Starr, Jason Hanna and Don Melvin for CNN.

--“While North Korea says it's putting a satellite into orbit, the launch is viewed by others as a front for a ballistic missile test. U.S. officials have said the same type of rocket used to launch the satellite could also be used to fire a long-range missile. South Korea condemned the planned launch as a ‘direct challenge against the international community,’ and warned that North Korea would pay a ‘grave price’ if it went ahead.” Full story here. http://cnn.it/1KVMkex

Reliving the Iran debate - “The congressional threat to the nuclear accord remains as real as ever. It comes not from the rejection of the accord a la Obamacare repeal, but in the form of the bipartisan push to extend the Iran Sanctions Act. The Iran Sanctions Act is the bedrock of the U.S. sanctions regime against Iran, and is set to expire at the end of 2016,” write Kate Gould and Kyle Cristofalo for U.S. News.

--“Congress must do everything in its power to make sure it continues to comply with both the letter and spirit of the nuclear accord. With the success the accord has already made in scaling back Iran's nuclear program, we cannot afford an escalation that would jeopardize this progress and put our countries on a path toward war.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1nMP49C

Nuclear near misses at sea - The Pentagon has declassified information about nuclear weapons deployed at sea during the Cold War. The documents show that “deploying nuclear weapons on ships and submarines created unique risks of accidents and incidents,” writes Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists. “Because warships sometimes collide, catch fire, or even sink, it was only a matter of time before the nuclear weapons they carried were threatened, damaged, or lost.”

--“Dozens of nuclear weapons were lost at sea over the decades because they were on ships, submarines, or aircraft that were lost. On December 5, 1965, for example... an A-4E aircraft loaded with one B43 nuclear weapon rolled overboard... The aircraft sank with the pilot and… the bomb has never been recovered.” While the DoD initially reported the accident took place more than 500 miles from land, the new documents put it at 80 miles east of Japan, where nuclear weapons are prohibited. http://bit.ly/1PWGWiW

Nuclear concerns in Asia - “The Indian navy’s latest statement of maritime strategy, published in October, says the country’s nuclear-deterrence doctrine involves having a ‘credible minimum deterrent’ that can deliver ‘massive nuclear retaliation designed to inflict unacceptable damage’ in response to a nuclear strike against India. Because they can readily avoid detection, [Nuclear-armed submarines] can survive a surprise attack and thus ensure India’s ability to launch a retaliatory ‘second strike’,” writes The Economist.

--“A report for the Lowy Institute, an Australian think-tank, predicts ‘a long phase of initial instability’ as China and India start deploying nuclear missiles on submarines without adequate training or well-developed systems for communicating with them. It says the build-up may aggravate maritime tensions, as China and India seek to dominate local waters in an effort to turn them into havens for their SSBNs.” Full article from the print edition can be found here (behind a paywall). http://econ.st/1TGyfsD

Quick Hits:

--“Is a New Nuclear Cruise Missile Necessary?” by the Center for Arms Control and Non-proliferation. http://bit.ly/1L0qk2o

--“Pentagon chief says U.S. keeping eye on North Korea's missile program,” writes Andrea Shalal for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1o9FP3b

--“CrisisWatch N°150: Tracking Conflict Worldwide,” by the International Crisis Group. http://bit.ly/1R59qpA

--“NATO report: A 2013 Russian aerial exercise was actually a 'simulated nuclear attack' on Sweden,” reports Armin Rosen for Business Insider. http://read.bi/1PUiMiL

--“The Former Federal Employee Who Tried to Launch a Cyberattack on Nuclear Scientists,” By Kevin Waddell for The Atlantic. http://theatln.tc/1o9KORd

--“Candidates should carry on Reagan’s quest of no nukes” By William Lambers for The Hill. http://bit.ly/1PkRYZC

Events:

--“The Growing Danger of Nuclear War — and What We Can Do About It,” featuring Ira Helfand, International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War. Feb. 8 at 4:30 p.m. at Cornell University, Smith Hall, 232 East Ave., Ithaca, NY. http://bit.ly/1nAIjrb

--“ISIS’ Hunt for WMDs: Navigating the Nuclear Underworld,” featuring Christopher Chivers, New York Times. Feb. 9 from 3:30 to 5:00 p.m. at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington. Webcast will be available on the CSIS website. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1T1I8kx

--“Great Rifts: Political and Economic Ramifications of the Iran-Saudi Divide,” featuring Frederic C. Hof, Atlantic Council; Amir Handjani, PG International Commodity Trading Services; Sara Vakhshouri​, Atlantic Council; and David Ottaway, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Feb. 9 at 10:00 a.m. at the Atlantic Council, 1030 15th Street NW, 12th Floor (West Tower Elevator), Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1So0Wvz

--“What’s Next with Iran? The Future of Its Weapons Program and of Its Relations with the West,” featuring Joseph Cirincione, Ploughshares Fund. Feb. 10 at 5:15 p.m. at the World Trade Center Baltimore, 401 E. Pratt St., Baltimore. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1WnsZJZ

--“The State of the Comprehensive Test Ban and Non-proliferation Treaties,” featuring Susan Burk, former Special Representative for Nuclear Nonproliferation; Daryl Kimball, Arms Control Association; and David Koplow, Georgetown University. Feb. 11 from 12:30 to 2:00 p.m. at the Stimson Center, 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW, Eighth Floor, Washington. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1o9DC7E