Preventing a New Cold War

Avoiding a second Cold War - “I believe that we are now on the verge of a new nuclear arms race, and that we are drifting back to a Cold War mentality. Moreover, I believe that the risk of a nuclear catastrophe today is greater than it was during the Cold War -- and yet our public is blissfully unaware of the new nuclear dangers they face,” writes former Secretary of Defense William Perry for The World Post.

--“We should not accept that diplomacy is incapable of reducing the present antagonism between the U.S. and Russia, anymore than we accepted that it was impossible to use diplomacy with Iran. We have many common interests with Russia. Even as we confront Moscow on disputed issues, we must work together on others such as preventing nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism.” Read the full piece here. http://huff.to/1JZE8Pp

The New nuclear arms race - “The United States is on the cusp of launching an unnecessary, expensive, and potentially dangerous plan to modernize its strategic nuclear forces, helping stimulate what is being called a ‘new nuclear arms race.’ Before Washington starts down this path, it needs to step back and ask, ‘How much is enough?’ or, as the Cold War adage went, ‘How high do we need to make the rubble bounce?’” write Gordon Adams and Richard Sokolsky for Defense One.

--“The president’s nuclear math is fine — the mistake he made was deciding to maintain a smaller force by modernizing every leg of the nuclear triad for the next 30 years: a next-generation strategic bomber, a new generation of nuclear submarines armed with Trident missiles, and an upgrade of land-based ICBMs, along with modernization of the air-delivered B-61 bomb and development of a new nuclear cruise missile for the strategic bomber force.” Read the full article here. http://bit.ly/1RA18H6

The Economist weighs in - Former Defense Secretary William Perry, who was in charge of developing the nuclear air-launched cruise missile during the late 1970s, and his colleague former Assistant Defense Secretary Andy Weber “caused a stir in October by calling for the cancellation of plans to build a fleet of 1,000 air-launched, nuclear-armed missiles. This would save $25 billion,” argues an editorial in The Economist.

--Plans for the new cruise missile call for it to be armed with a low-yield nuclear warhead. This will supposedly limit civilian casualties if it is ever used. However, “precisely because it is so accurate and its yield can be made so small, the new bomb could make crossing the nuclear threshold a lot easier and therefore more tempting for commanders. Critics see it as encouraging a return to something like ‘flexible response’, a cold-war concept which many at the time thought risky, because it unsettled the apocalyptic logic of deterrence.” Read the full editorial here. http://econ.st/1P8pq9d

See also - “Breaking the taboo on the use of nuclear arms,” two letters to the editor in The New York Times by Gregory Reichberg, Drew Christiansen and David Keppel on the dangers of modernizing the nuclear arsenal. http://nyti.ms/1NmH7MD

Where the candidates stand - “Some presidential candidates have expressed their views on nuclear weapons and nuclear security, but for the most part, the issue has been relatively absent from the campaign trail. The next Commander-in-Chief should be asked about nuclear issues so that the voters know where the candidates stand. Presidential hopefuls from both parties need to come forward with their preferred objectives for the future of U.S. nuclear security,” writes Jake Meixler for Nukes of Hazard.

--“Senator Bernie Sanders and Governor Martin O’Malley have both spoken of their support for the vision of a world free of nuclear weapons. In the Democratic Debate on January 17th, 2016, Senator Sanders called for ‘fundamental changes’ to how the Pentagon spends money… Jeb Bush, in response to a question asked by a Global Zero representative about the vision for a world free of nuclear weapons, also said that it was an ‘incredible objective’.” Find the full rundown of the candidates’ positions here. http://bit.ly/1VaT9hU

With great power, comes great responsibility - “There is no doubt that the United States and the international community should be concerned about the latest nuclear test by the unpredictable and unstable regime in North Korea — the fourth in the last decade — even if the Hermit Kingdom tested ‘only’ a conventional atomic weapon and not a hydrogen bomb as it claims,” writes Lawrence Korb for The National Interest.

--“Congress and the Obama administration should take this latest North Korean action as an opportunity to get our own house in order by ratifying the CTBT, rejoining the ABM Treaty and slowing down our impending nuclear modernization program. In doing so, we will have the credibility to lecture the Chinese about getting tougher with North Korea by inflicting real economic pain on it, and lead the international community in ensuring that North Korea does not continue on its current path.” Get the full story. http://bit.ly/1Ji5Jv7

Urgency after North Korean test - “The world is alarmed by North Korea’s fourth test of a nuclear weapon, its first since February 2013. The detonation, which North Korea claims was a successful hydrogen bomb, is opposed with contempt by the international community including China, the Hermit Kingdom’s closest ally. This test demonstrates North Korea’s investment in improving its nuclear arsenal; the status quo of severe sanctions and tough talk has done little to deter this effort,” write Philip Coyle, Lt. Gen. Robert Gard (ret.) and Greg Terryn for The Hill.

--“The United States must eliminate its preconditions for restarting the talks. Currently, the United States demands that North Korea accept that the ultimate objective of the talks is denuclearization, before talks may resume. This precondition has smothered negotiations and prevented a restart. Instead, the United States should agree to engage diplomatically now, while there is strong international opposition to North Korea. To remove this precondition, the United States does not forfeit the ultimate goal of denuclearization and it does not reward bad North Korean behavior.” Read the full piece here. http://bit.ly/1Szurtz

See also - “U.S. Weighs tighter sanctions on North Korea if China fails to act,” by Choe Sang-Hun for The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1NjSt43

Strategies for tracking trafficking - “If [North Korea] is as isolated as it seems, how has it continued to acquire nuclear technology and materials sufficient to maintain an active nuclear program?” asks Jack Brosnan for the Stimson Center. “It may be that the Kim regime (like other targets of non-proliferation controls) relies on organized and well concealed nuclear proliferation networks that traffic in nuclear goods for financial profit.”

--“Pinpointing the characteristics that make networks attractive to proliferators allows both identification of ‘at risk’ locales and precise targeting of efforts to remediate and control these risks… To date however there has not been a broadly inclusive and geographically focused non-proliferation initiative with a focus on potential points of manufacture and shipment or transshipment. Taking a location focused approach would be a positive step forward in crafting smarter, better targeted, and more effective tools to fight illicit tracking networks.” http://bit.ly/1NmxBce

Video - Watch a short video on the importance of international standards for nuclear materials by 5 Priorities for Global Nuclear Security, a Fissile Materials Working Group project. http://bit.ly/23gXRAH

Assessing risk in South Asia - “Though India may have surpassed Pakistan in the 2016 [Nuclear Threat Initiative] index, the overall picture of nuclear security between the two nuclear armed South Asian giants is not reassuring. Both India and Pakistan remain outside of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, and regularly rattle sabers over the disputed territory of Kashmir, among other issues,” reports Ankit Panda for The Diplomat.

--“Indian regulations for nuclear sites are written as guidance rather than as binding requirements. Additionally, India lacks an independent regulatory agency though it has pledged to establish one… Pakistan is often cited as one of the more dangerous countries in the world given its growing nuclear arsenal, investment into low-yield battlefield nuclear weapons, and unstable internal environment.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1nbyu28

The Short memory of neocon critics - “It’s inevitable that neoconservatives will assail President Obama’s every dealing with Iran. And indeed, the denunciations were fast and furious of the deal that brought home four Americans, including Washington Post reporter Jason Rezaian. Few of the critics explicitly rejected the deal… but the neocon criticisms all smacked of historical ignorance, hypocrisy, or both,” write Eli Clifton, Ali Gharib and Jim Lobe for LobeLog.

--“Ronald Reagan didn’t just trade prisoners. He facilitated the sale (by Israel) of weapons to Iran (in defiance of an international arms embargo) in return for U.S. hostages held in Lebanon. Moreover, some of the proceeds from the arms sales were used to fund the Nicaraguan Contras in clear violation of U.S. law in what became known as the ‘Iran-Contra affair.’ … Reviewing the recent history of international hostage negotiations, the Obama White House seems to have gotten a pretty good deal.” http://bit.ly/1NmKR0w

Quick Hits:

--“Air Force Facing Budgetary Train Wreck,” by Jon Harper for National Defense. http://bit.ly/1S78QaD

--“Japanese Fishermen and the Bikini Atoll H-bomb Blast,” recollections of Foreign Service Officers compiled by ADST for The World Post. http://huff.to/1nbBXxA

--“SNP MP calls for end to nuclear weapons convoys through Scotland,” by Michael Settle for Herald Scotland. http://bit.ly/1Qoa0P3

--“Nuclear Watch to sue over LANL cleanup problems,” by Mark Oswald for Journal North. http://bit.ly/1ZEnXc6

Events:

--“Strategic Deterrent Forces: A Foundation for National Security," featuring Adm. Cecil Haney, U.S. Strategic Command; Franklin Miller, Scowcroft Group; Keith Payne, National Institute for Public Policy; and Thomas Karako, Center for Strategic and International Studies. Jan. 22 from 10:00 a.m. to noon at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Second Floor Conference Room, Washington. RSVP by email at intlsecurity@CSIS.org. Webcast on the CSIS website. http://bit.ly/22ewI0O

--“Implications of Iran's Nuclear 'Implementation Day," featuring Barbara Slavin, Atlantic Council and sponsored by Women's Foreign Policy Group. Noon Jan. 22 at the Wilderness Society, 1615 M St. NW, Washington. Register here. http://bit.ly/1RxW8mp

--Ploughshares Fund President Joe Cirincione presents the keynote address at the opening session of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty’s symposium, Science & Diplomacy for Peace & Security, Jan. 25 at the Vienna International Centre, Vienna, Austria. RSVP online here. http://bit.ly/1QG5hbR

--“Symposium: Science and Diplomacy for Peace and Security; The CTBT at 20," presented by the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization. From Jan. 25 to Feb. 4 at the Vienna International Centre, Vienna. Participants can take part in the symposium in person or online. RSVP online. https://ktp.ctbto.org/

--Doomsday Clock announcement by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, featuring Rachel Bronson, Lawrence Krauss, Thomas R. Pickering, Sharon Squassoni and Sivan Kartha of the Bulletin. Jan. 26 at 1:30 p.m. at the National Press Club, 529 14th Street NW, Washington, D.C., in the Zenger Room. RSVP by contacting Patrick Mitchell, 703-276-3266 and pmitchell@hastingsgroup.com, or Alex Frank, 703-276-3264 and afrank@hastingsgroup.com. A live streaming webcast of the event will be available here. http://bit.ly/1PpGNhx

--Address to the United Nations Association of the United States, Palm Beach County Chapter by Ploughshares Fund President Joe Cirincione. Jan. 27 from 4:30 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. at the Royal Poinciana Chapel, 60 Cocoanut Row, Palm Beach.

--“Centrifuges, Sanctions and Security," featuring Paul Carroll, Ploughshares Fund. Jan. 27 from 6:30-9:00 p.m. at Dominican University, Caleruega Dining Hall, 50 Acacia Ave., San Rafael, CA. Dinner reservations required by Jan. 22. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1IOuOh8

--“Defense Outlook: A CSIS Series on Strategy, Budget, Forces, and Acquisition,” featuring Kathleen H. Hicks, Todd Harrison, Andrew Philip Hunter and Mark F. Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Jan. 27 from 10:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036 in the second floor conference room. Register here. http://bit.ly/1JZIBS9

--“Pin-Down Diplomacy: How Wrestling Promotes US-Iran Ties.” Featuring Gregg Sullivan from the State Department, Bahman Baktiari of the International Foundation for Civil Society; James Ravannack of USA Wrestling; and Christina 'Kiki' Kelley from USA Wrestling Greco-Roman Team. Moderated by: Barbara Slavin of the Atlantic Council. February 2 from 10:00 a.m. to 11:30 a.m. Located at the Atlantic Council, 1030 15th Street NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC 20005. RSVP here: http://bit.ly/1SxeNz9

Dessert:

Error (404): update unavailable - “Britain's fleet of missile submarines, HMS Vanguard, Victorious, Vigilant, and Vengeance, are four of the deadliest ships ever built. Armed with nuclear weapons, the four ‘boomers’ patrol the oceans, providing a powerful deterrent against a surprise nuclear attack on the United Kingdom… The four submarines have just one critical flaw: They all run Windows XP,” writes Kyle Mizokami for Popular Mechanics.

--“Microsoft ended security updates for Windows XP in 2014, meaning that the Vanguard submarines could be vulnerable to viruses, malware, and cyberattacks. As with any software release, each update fixes existing problems but introduces the likelihood of new ones. The Redmond, Washington company issued a grim reminder to XP holdouts in 2014, warning: ‘Any PC running Windows XP after April 8, 2014 should not be considered protected as there will be no security updates for the Windows XP operating system.’" Full story here. http://bit.ly/1T92dFx