Obama Still Has Options For Arms Control

Arms control annoucement expected - “Barack Obama is expected to make a final decision next month on possible cuts to the U.S. nuclear arsenal, in an attempt to consolidate his legacy as a disarmer before leaving office. Options on the table include reducing the number of deployed strategic warheads, slimming down the reserve stockpile, cutting military stores of fissile material available for making new warheads, and putting off some modernisation plans, including the a controversial air force programme for developing an air-launched cruise missile,” writes Julian Borger for The Guardian.

--“[An] option known to be under consideration would be delaying some of the ambitious nuclear modernisation programmes that are still in their very early stages. A planned air force fleet of nuclear-capable B-21 stealth bombers is priced at $80bn, while proposed nuclear long-range stand-off cruise missiles are estimated to cost $30bn. Critics have said it is unclear how such weapons will be funded when the major expenditure is due in the 2020s, and that each makes the other redundant. The cruise missiles have been described as potentially destabilising because they can be launched without warning and are impossible to distinguish from their conventional counterparts.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/2d87jWx

Obama’s last UN speech - “[Today], Barack Obama will deliver his last address to the United Nations as president. What will he say? What should he say?... he likely will again laud the success of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the international agreement that imposed significant constraints on Iran’s nuclear program, halting its rapidly expanding fissile material enrichment capability and putting in place a robust inspection regime. He will likely also note the successes (albeit modest) of his Nuclear Security Summits, designed to eliminate and lock down nuclear weapons-usable materials used for civil purposes around the world,” writes Stephen Young for Union of Concerned Scientists.

--“What should he say in his farewell UN address? How should he cement his legacy, earn the Nobel Peace Prize even he admits was given more for promise than achievement, and make the world a safer place? He should announce that he will: (1) remove U.S. land-based missiles from hair-trigger alert; (2) cut deployed U.S. nuclear forces to 1,000 warheads, as he has already concluded he could safely do; and (3) cancel the proposed new nuclear-armed cruise missile. And he should declare that the sole purpose of U.S. nuclear weapons is to deter a nuclear attack on the United States or its allies.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/2cjLDRl

Tweet - @DarylGKimball: "The UN and the Test Ban." Why the UNSC res. to reinforce testing taboo & #CTBT is impt.http://bit.ly/2cjRYfL

Video - Watch David Martin explore the new nuclear arms race and how the president would order a nuclear strike for 60 Minutes. http://cbsn.ws/2d4E0nZ

Three Outcomes for the DPRK - “North Korea is not going to unilaterally disarm, and the U.S. is not going to preemptively attack North Korea (and risk another Korean war) to force it to do so. Simply continuing past policies — applying more sanctions and beefing up military capabilities in the region — will almost certainly fail, but more ominously will likely result in three outcomes, all of them bad,” writes Philip Yun for Ploughshares Fund.

--“Putting the pieces together to get a North Korean freeze is a long shot and getting harder every day. But given that we could in the not too distant future be faced with the terrible choice of a North Korea with nuclear tipped missiles aimed at the U.S. mainland or a devastating war to prevent this from happening, making sure we have explored every option now before having making that choice later is well-worth our effort.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/2ctml4b

See also - “Post Test Activity at Punggye-ri,” by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. and Jack Liu for 38 North. http://bit.ly/2cfpKrn

Tweet - @NuclearWatchNM: The Cold War saw decades of nuclear deterrence. What happens when a rogue state gets the bomb? - LA Times http://lat.ms/2crpjIJ

The Future of the Iran Deal - “The nuclear agreement reached with Iran last year provides strong assurance that Iran will not get a nuclear weapon for at least 15 years. Achieving that singular objective brought together China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the U.S. to negotiate with Iran the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Iran without a nuclear weapon is far less threatening,” writes Amb. Thomas Pickering for The Tennessean.

--“While U.S. and Iranian approaches are parallel on some regional issues, on others they are conflicted. Whether America’s relations with Iran will be confrontational or cooperative depends both on how we deal with Iran and how Iran responds… Yet, if Iran continues to comply with its JCPOA obligations, a new American administration may be able to take a longer view and employ diplomatic options to realize additional positive results from the nuclear deal.” Full piece here. http://tnne.ws/2cS4423

U.S. may send high enriched uranium to Belgium - “The Obama administration won praise for promising in 2012 to curtail the use of bomb-grade uranium in the production of medical diagnostic tools. But now the U.S. Energy Department is getting brickbats for proposing to send such materials to several European nations, including Belgium, where a shaky nuclear program has in recent years been plagued by sabotage, radicalization and terrorist surveillance,” writes Patrick Malone for the Center for Public Integrity.

--“‘This is a violation of a commitment by not just any country, but the country that convened and initiated the whole Nuclear Security Summit process,’ said Alan Kuperman, a University of Texas public policy professor who closely monitors efforts to draw down the world's supply of bomb-grade uranium. ‘It really risks calling into question whether other countries will feel compelled or committed to abide by their pledges.’” Full article here. http://bit.ly/2d88tS8

Tweet - @SecDef19: @60Minutes Learn how close we are to nuclear disaster in a free course from @StanfordOnline open Oct 4: http://stanford.io/2cNfQvN

Quick Hits:

--“Analyzing the nuclear capability of the U.S.” An interview with David Martin, Hans Kristensen, and Frank Miller for CBSN. http://cbsn.ws/2cWpkW4

--“Defense Bill Has Nuclear Facilities Fighting Drones,” by Joe Gould for Defense News. http://bit.ly/2cOpRY5

--“Whose Finger? On What Button?” by Kevin Martin for CounterPunch. http://bit.ly/2d88UM0

--“U.S., China to step up cooperation on North Korea,” by Jeff Mason, David Brunnstrom, Michelle Nichols and Arshad Mohammed for Reuters. http://reut.rs/2d3oe88

Events:

--“Author talk with Dan Zak,” author of Almighty: Courage, Resistance, and Existential Peril in the Nuclear Age. September 20 from 7:00 to 9:00 p.m. at Potter's House,1658 Columbia Road NW, Washington. http://bit.ly/2cl3o3i

--“Strategic Conversation on U.S. Foreign and National Security Policy” featuring Rep. Adam Smith (WA). September 22 from 12:30 to 1:30 p.m., at the Stimson Center, 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW, Eighth Floor, Washington. RSVP Online. http://bit.ly/2aOyh0z

--Screening of Command and Control from September 23 to 29 at Landmark Theatres E Street Cinema, 555 11th St. NW, Washington. http://bit.ly/2aXwKFZ

--“Nuclear Instability in Northeast Asia,” with Julian Borger, The Guardian; Mark Fitzpatrick, International Institute for Strategic Studies; Suzanne DiMaggio, New America; and Chung-in Moon, Yonsei University. September 26 from 10:00 to 11:30 a.m. EDT. Sponsored by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Webcast online. http://bit.ly/2cWmv7E

--“Nuclear Issues at the United Nations: What’s Next?” with Paul Meyer, former Canadian ambassador to the Conference on Disarmament; Jon Wolfsthal, National Security Council; Daryl Kimball, Arms Control Association; and Anita E. Friedt U.S. State Department. September 27 9:30 to 11:30 a.m. at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW Washington. http://bit.ly/2cOAMRR