Nuclear Modernization Craze Puts Disarmament at Risk

Previewing the NPT Review - “The worldwide modernization craze scrambles the calculus of nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation efforts, challenging the aging underpinnings of the NPT itself,” writes John Mecklin for Foreign Policy. “Unless the United States, Russia, and other powers find a way to agree on reining in their modernization programs, the world’s non-nuclear countries will have increasingly legitimate reasons to ask how they benefit from being part of the NPT—and why they shouldn’t go their own way.”

--“Is the international arms-control regime an outdated charade? That question will be on the minds of arms experts as the 190 signatories to the NPT convene in New York this spring for a review conference they hold every five years.” http://atfp.co/1DYUSlV

Symbology - Senator Mark Kirk (R-IL) plans to introduce new Iran sanctions as an amendment to the budget resolution, which the Senate is considering this week. The sanctions vote will be largely symbolic, as the budget resolution is nonbinding. http://bloom.bg/1y6r1Rf

Handshake deal? - Will the potential Iran nuclear framework agreement be a written, signed accord or a more informal, unwritten statement of understanding? It’s one of the big questions facing negotiators. The Iranians prefer to avoid specifics now, finalizing the details of the agreement by the summer deadline. For the White House, however, defending a non written agreement to Congress may be difficult. David Sanger and Michael Gordon report. http://nyti.ms/1y6vTFZ

Corker myths - “Far from allowing Congress to carry out its already available authority to lift sanctions, Sen. Bob Corker’s bill would put in place additional restrictions that would move the goal posts beyond the scope of current negotiations, delay the implementation of a final deal and encourage a rushed, impractical timeline for congressional review.” Laicie Heeley lays out the facts of the Corker bill in the Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/1Gly5QR

Soft power - Whether Americans object to negotiating in general or talking to Iran in particular, domestic opposition to Iran nuclear diplomacy could prove dangerous, writes Dominic Tierney for The Atlantic.

--“American power and moralism triggers opposition to diplomacy that undermines U.S. interests… Refusing to compromise American values by making concessions can mean paying a larger ethical price later on. Washington may miss opportunities for a valuable deal and end up negotiating as a last resort—when its hand is much weaker.” http://theatln.tc/1ETgePk

--See also: “U.S. Should Make Nuclear Deal With Iran: Americans Must Insist That Washington Choose Peace,” by Doug Bandow for Forbes. http://onforb.es/1CYa6rz

Tweet - @RezaShaer: Good Read: "Is #Iran Too Evil to Talk To?" thanks @Cirincione http://nzzl.me/1FFMBnz

Tweet - @lrozen: Getting ready to fly out with Sec.Kerry in an hour or so to #IranTalks Lausanne. iranian team has already departed from Tehran.

P5 unity - China called on Iran to muster the political will to reach an agreement with world powers over its nuclear program. "The Iran nuclear talks have reached the final sprint in the marathon," Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in a telephone call on Tuesday. Full report from Reuters. http://reut.rs/1CpQ4nE

Quick hits:

--“Jordan has signed a $10 billion nuclear power plant deal with Russia,” report by Reuters. http://read.bi/1y6ETLo

--“Russia Tests Nuclear-Forces Communications in Arctic Navy Drills,” by Ilya Arkhipov and Alexei Anishchuk for Bloomberg http://bloom.bg/1DZg5wa

--“DoD leaders push back against move to limit nuclear spending,” in the Air Force Times. http://bit.ly/1BmXsw5

Events:

--“P5+1 and Iran Nuclear Negotiations.” Featuring Robert Einhorn, former State Department official; Thomas Pickering, former Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs; Kelsey Davenport, Arms Control Association; Dylan Williams, J Street; Trita Parsi, National Iranian American Council; and Kate Gould, Friends Committee on National Legislation. March 26 from 9:30-10:30 AM. Sponsored by Arms Control Association. Located at the National Press Club, First Amendment Lounge, 529 14th St. NW, 13th Floor, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1CmmDD1

--“Deal or no deal? Negotiating with Iran.” Featuring Robert Einhorn, Senior Fellow, Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Initiative of Brookings, William Galston, Senior Fellow, Governance Studies of Brookings and Suzanne Maloney, Senior Fellow, Center for Middle East Policy of Brookings. April 1 from 10:00AM – 11:30 AM. Located at The Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington, DC 2003. http://brook.gs/1x8WE1a

--“Paths to Disarmament: The NPT and the Humanitarian Initiative.” Featuring John Loretz, International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, and Martin Fleck, Physicians for Social Responsibility (PSR). April 2 from 8:00-9:00 PM EST. Online webinar sponsored by PSR. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1Oek3Ur

--“NPT Review Conference Preview.” Featuring Mark Fitzpatrick, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), and Edward Ifft, former State Department official. March 26 from 9:00-10:00 AM. Located at IISS, 2121 K St. NW, Suite 801, Washington, DC. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1HEkTVe

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