Nuclear Fender-Benders in the UK

The UK has nuclear issues - “Convoys carrying nuclear bombs are often on Britain’s roads, thundering through cities and towns,” writes Rob Edwards for the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN). “Comprising up to 20 vehicles, they take Trident warheads between the south of England and central Scotland two to six times a year... The Ministry of Defence (MoD) says the convoys are safe. But there are good reasons to be concerned about the dangers... The MoD has confessed to eight real accidents involving nuclear weapons convoys between 1960 and 1991. In response to requests under freedom of information law, it has given outline details of a further 180 safety incidents that have plagued the convoy between 2000 and 2016.”

--“The MoD says the risks are ‘tolerable when balanced against the strategic imperative to move nuclear weapons.’ But many may disagree. Accidents happen, and sooner or later there will be a serious crash... Whether the risk is tolerable is not a judgement that should be left to the MoD alone. It is one for the millions of people through whose towns and cities the convoys pass. They have the right to decide what’s tolerable – and what’s not.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/2dgbKuA

U.S. CTBT statement - “The Eighth Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Ministerial Meeting, which took place in New York on September 21, 2016, issued the following statement to which the United States associated itself... We regard the Treaty to be a core element of the international nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation regime and its entry into force as a major contribution to international peace and security… We urge all States that have not yet done so to sign and ratify the Treaty without delay, in particular the remaining eight States listed in Annex 2 of the Treaty. We appeal to all States to make the utmost efforts to achieve its prompt entry into force.”

--“We must finish the work we started twenty years ago... The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) is the only country that has conducted nuclear tests in this century. We condemn in the strongest terms its nuclear tests in 2006, 2009, 2013 and in January and September of 2016 and demand that DPRK refrain from conducting further nuclear test...We continue to underline the need for a peaceful solution of the DPRK nuclear issue.” Full statement here. http://bit.ly/2cT2ePG

Tweet - @ctbto_alerts: @UN Messenger of #Peace @KDouglasMichael reminds the world of the urgency of Entry into Force of the #CTBT #UNGA http://bit.ly/2dmo0wr

The Verification problem - “Americans of a certain age are well acquainted with one of Ronald Reagan’s pithier maxims: ‘Trust, but verify,’” writes Alex Wellerstein for The New Yorker. “It is a translation of a Russian proverb, and Reagan used it often in his dealings with the Soviet Union over nuclear disarmament, as both countries chipped away tentatively at their Cold War stockpiles. For him, the saying encapsulated the idea that a good treaty would require rigorous inspections, to insure that neither side was dragging its feet or, worse, disposing of decoy bombs, rather than real ones. But how should the process of verification work?”

--“If a U.S. scientist were allowed to dismantle a Russian warhead personally, he or she could identify it as legitimate fairly easily, even if it differed in design from American models. But, in doing so, the scientist would necessarily learn many classified details about the weapon, something that the Russians would never consent to. (Nor would the Americans, if their roles were swapped). This problem has shaped the form of arms-control agreements.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/2djRFpX

Tweet - @NuclearWatchNM WAND: #WomanCrushWednesday: Women in Nuclear- women who have made their mark in the arms control world http://bit.ly/2dmgaTD

Is presidential nuclear authority democratic? - “Could a president make the decision to use a nuclear weapon without any interference from others? Bruce G. Blair, a former Minuteman missile-launch officer and research scholar at Princeton University’s Program on Science and Global Security, told Business Insider that the answer, essentially, is yes… Congress could do nothing to stop the decision if it were made in haste, Blair said.”

--“The only measure that could be taken at home, Blair said, is the invoking of Section 4 of the 25th Amendment of the Constitution — which has never been used. That section allows for the vice president, together with a majority of cabinet heads or Congress, to declare the President disabled and unfit to execute the duties of the office… Blair called that ‘the only thing’ government officials ‘could possibly do’ in such a situation.” Read the full story, from Allan Smith for Business Insider, here. http://read.bi/2cWySAs

Conflict of interest at nuclear labs - “The Department of Energy is responsible for a network of 17 National Laboratories conducting all kinds of scientific research. Three of these labs, Sandia National Laboratories, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and the Los Alamos National Laboratory, have multi-billion dollar budgets and focus on ensuring the US nuclear stockpile is safe, secure, and reliable,” writes Lydia Dennett for the Project on Government Oversight.

--“The DOE’s National Nuclear Security Administration manages the labs by hiring contractors to run them—contractors who have a large financial stake in ensuring their work continues and have long worked to influence Congress in any way possible. In recent years they have focused on gaining support for a $1 trillion nuclear modernization effort.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/2ddHJ2H

French jets for Delhi bombs - “India is on the verge of signing a deal with France for 36 Dassault Rafale fighter jets, likely when French defense minister Jean-Yves le Drian arrives in New Delhi later this week. The jets may end up lugging nuclear bombs, as officials told The Indian Express this month that the jets are ‘to be used as an airborne strategic delivery system.’ That’s a polite way of saying India’s jets could drop nukes — one mission which Dassault specifically designed the multi-role Rafale to do,” writes Robert Beckhusen for War is Boring.

--“India will only buy… 36 Rafales. That’s just two squadrons, and far below the 126 fighters planned several years ago. (That deal collapsed.) So the nuclear competition with Pakistan won’t change because of the jets. What would change it? Commissioning more ballistic missile submarines, building longer-ranged missile launchers and ramping up production of fissile material which could produce more and more powerful bombs… all of which India is doing.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/2cooj55

Quick Hits:

--“AP Analysis: Questioning the Stereotypes About North Korea,” by Eric Talmadge for the AP. http://apne.ws/2d3PNzH

--“No insurmountable hurdles to no-first-use,” by Ta Minh Tuan for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. http://bit.ly/2cTC1Rc

--“Barry’s Legacy and the Bomb,” the Arms Control Wonk Podcast with Jeffrey Lewis and Aaron Stein. http://bit.ly/2ddz8wY

--“Finding a Nuclear Weapon: Hope Beyond the Screwdriver,” by Edward Cazalas for The National Interest. http://bit.ly/2cADbxO

Events:

--“Strategic Conversation on U.S. Foreign and National Security Policy," with Rep. Adam Smith (WA), September 22 from 12:30 to 1:30 p.m. at Stimson Center, 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW, Eighth Floor, Washington. http://bit.ly/2aOyh0z

--Screening of Command and Control from September 23 to 29 at Landmark Theatres E Street Cinema, 555 11th St. NW, Washington. http://bit.ly/2aXwKFZ

--“Nuclear Instability in Northeast Asia,” with Julian Borger, The Guardian; Mark Fitzpatrick, International Institute for Strategic Studies; Suzanne DiMaggio, New America; and Chung-in Moon, Yonsei University. September 26 from 10:00 to 11:30 a.m. EDT. Sponsored by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Webcast online. http://bit.ly/2cWmv7E

--“Nuclear Issues at the United Nations: What’s Next?” with Paul Meyer, former Canadian ambassador to the Conference on Disarmament; Jon Wolfsthal, National Security Council; Daryl Kimball, Arms Control Association; and Anita E. Friedt U.S. State Department. September 27 from 9:30 to 11:30 a.m. at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington. http://bit.ly/2cOAMRR

--“Redefining the U.S. Agenda for Nuclear Disarmament," with Lewis Dunn, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, September 29 from 3:30 to 5:00 p.m., at Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington. http://bit.ly/2cZaF9c

Dessert:

Bomber McBomberface - “On Sept. 19, 101-year old retired Lt. Col. Richard E. Cole, one of the last surviving participants of the famous Doolittle Raid on Japan and Jimmy Doolittle’s co-pilot, announced that the official name of America’s upcoming B-21 bomber would be the ‘Raider,’” writes Joseph Trevithick for War is Boring.

--“Four months earlier, the Air Force made the unusual decision to let service members submit possible monikers for the bomber over the Internet… In May, the Air Force said it had whittled these down to a short list of 15 choices. Cole made the much awaited Raider announcement at the Air Force Association’s annual Air, Space and Cyber Conference in Maryland. War Is Boring submitted a Freedom of Information Act request for the rest of the submissions. On Sept. 21, after an appeal, the Air Force responded with the complete list.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/2cwtfry

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