Nuclear Arms Race Threatens Global Stability

On the brink of another Cold War - “The United States, Russia and China are now aggressively pursuing a new generation of smaller, less destructive nuclear weapons. The buildups threaten to revive a Cold War-era arms race and unsettle the balance of destructive force among nations that has kept the nuclear peace for more than a half-century,” write William Broad and David Sanger for The New York Times.

--“President Obama acknowledged that danger... He warned of the potential for ‘ramping up new and more deadly and more effective systems that end up leading to a whole new escalation of the arms race.’ For a president who came to office more than seven years ago talking about eventually ridding the world of nuclear weapons, it was an admission that an American policy intended to reduce the centrality of atomic arms might contribute to a second nuclear age.” Full article here. http://nyti.ms/1SkkqOW

Why Obama should visit Hiroshima - “The atomic bombs brought an end to the war with Japan but also ushered in a nuclear age that left all in dread of another mushroom cloud. Survivors of the attacks, and the Japanese people more broadly, resolved to turn the horror into a warning, and they have borne witness ever since to the uniquely barbaric nature of nuclear arms. It would be fitting for Mr. Obama to pay tribute to their dedication,” writes the editorial board of The Washington Post.

--“At Hiroshima, Mr. Obama could examine the unfulfilled ambitions of his Prague speech in 2009, a nuclear agenda that brought him the Nobel Peace Prize, and describe how arsenals could be reduced. The agreement to head off Iran’s nuclear program needs to be monitored vigilantly — and matched with respect to North Korea’s rogue program. Russia and the United States possess the largest nuclear arsenals on the planet; verifiable, binding agreements to reduce their size should remain a goal.” Full piece here. http://wapo.st/1qCMZhh

See also - “Story of cities #24: how Hiroshima rose from the ashes of nuclear destruction,” by Justin McCurry for The Guardian.http://bit.ly/22GKx5n

Seeking nuclear stability with China- “As China’s economy continues to grow and its military continues to modernize, Beijing will increasingly have the option to expand its nuclear forces, improve their capability, and broaden their role in its national security strategy. The United States cannot realistically prevent Beijing from doing so, but in cooperation with its allies, may be able to persuade Chinese leaders to develop their forces in ways consistent with mutual stability,” write Elbridge A. Colby and Wu Riqiang for Defense One.

--“Washington and Beijing should seek to apply some of the concepts associated with the idea of strategic stability in managing their relations in the nuclear domain... This would reduce the danger that nuclear war might begin because of essentially technical ‘use or lose’ or ‘itchy trigger-finger’ fears – concerns that can become very real in crises and conflicts.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1Vy7BUI

Video - “Let’s Talk About What a Bad Idea Mobile ICBMs Are,” by Robert Beckhusen and Zack Baddorf for War is Boring. http://bit.ly/1pe7HTz

Transparency needed in nuclear spending - “Despite the contradictions and flaws of the administration’s nuclear policy... imagine if the other nuclear-armed states also published summaries of their nuclear weapons plans. Some do disclose a little, but they could do much more. For others, however, the thought of disclosing any information about the size and composition of their nuclear arsenal seems so alien that it is almost inconceivable,” writes Hans Kristensen for The Fiscal Times.

--“‘Some nuclear-armed states believe their security depends on complete or near-complete nuclear secrecy… But the problem with excessive secrecy is that it tends to fuel uncertainty, rumors, suspicion, exaggerations, mistrust, and worst-case assumptions in other nuclear-armed states – reactions that cause them to shape their own nuclear forces and strategies in ways that undermine security for all.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/1U4YLwE

The politics of reductions - “The goal of eliminating the nuclear threat to humanity will continue to be remote so long as nuclear weapons and their delivery systems remain unconstrained... Strengthening the moratorium on explosive tests of nuclear devices and agreeing to stop production of fissile materials for use in bombs and missile warheads would be valuable steps in rebuilding momentum toward nuclear weapons reductions.” Full letter to the editor from George Shultz, James Goodby, Sidney Drell and Raymond Jeanloz in The New York Times here. http://nyti.ms/26cS5RT

Tweet - @ctbto_alerts: #otd in 1953: troops exercise near ground zero of 23 kt Badger test at #Nevada test site http://bit.ly/23Ha6ZZ

Uranium smugglers arrested - “Georgia's security service said on Monday it had detained six Georgian and Armenian citizens who were trying to sell $200 million worth of uranium-238. Georgia's security service did not say whether the group had a buyer for the uranium… However, Georgia is a former member of the Soviet Union, and world leaders have been concerned about the security of Soviet nuclear weapons since it broke up in 199,” reports Margarita Antidze for Reuters. Full piece here. http://reut.rs/1VdwDbP

Iran could be opportunity for investors - “More than 100 days after the Iran nuclear deal was implemented, Iranians are impatient to see more economic results… Big European banks are still keeping their distance from Iran and many foreign investors are also wary because of continuing US unilateral sanctions on the Islamic Republic over Iran’s other foreign and domestic policies and concerns about the upcoming political transition in the United States,” writes Barbara Slavin for the Atlantic Council.

--“There is a danger of a political backlash in Iran if the deal does not bear substantial economic fruit. It is in the interest of the US and most of the rest of the international community to bolster President Hassan Rouhani, who has staked his political career on the [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action]’s success. Even more important is the impact of the deal on Iran’s social evolution… It is up to the Obama administration in its waning days to take more executive actions removing impediments to US support for Iran’s private sector.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/1VBdtg1

Video - “The Iran Deal is working,” via Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz. http://bit.ly/1Ssw9OG

How sanctions work - Sanctions cause “both domestic and international investors to act in a more risk-averse manner... Target governments can compensate for such a shortfall with other macroeconomic measures, such as greater government spending or subsidizing consumption. Such steps, however, are like fueling a body with sugar rather than nutritious food — there are no short-term differences, but a sugar crash is coming,” writes Daniel Drezner for The Washington Post. Full article here. http://wapo.st/1U2cILQ

See the full report - “The New Tools of Economic Warfare,” by Elizabeth Rosenberg, Zachary K. Goldman, Dr. Daniel Drezner and Julia Solomon-Strauss, published by the Center for a New American Security. http://bit.ly/1S8jxdD

Philanthropy for the win - “What happens when the collective goal is policy change, and the path to achieve it relies on persuasion? Ploughshares Fund’s experience supporting the recent Iran nuclear agreement illustrates that philanthropies can strongly advance their causes by combining funder and facilitator roles within a collective impact initiative,” write Ploughshares Fund Board Member Tabitha Jordan and Benjamin Loehrke, a senior policy analyst at Ploughshares Fund, for the Stanford Social Innovation Review.

--“We organized diverse groups under a collective impact approach, with a shared agenda for addressing the problem, and they applied their talents to mutually reinforcing activities. For example, nuclear experts provided technical analyses to advocates and messaging specialists... In turn, these advocates and media strategists provided experts with greater political awareness... These kinds of collaborations were the life force of the network and strengthened the quality of participants’ efforts.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/1Wwpoey

Tweet - @PeaceAction: Celebrating 6 months of #Diplomacy with the #IranNuclearDeal #DiplomacyWorks. See what we've accomplished.

North Korea can learn from Iran - “North Korea, which conducted a fourth nuclear test in January in contravention of U.N. Security Council resolutions, can learn from a deal struck between Iran and world powers to freeze its nuclear program, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken said… The Security Council last month expanded those sanctions aimed at starving North Korea of funds for its weapons program on a resolution drafted by the United States and China,” James Pearson and Nick Macfie write for Reuters.

--“‘Iran made a fundamental choice. It decided to freeze and roll back its nuclear program and allow inspectors to come in and create the time and space to see if we could agree a comprehensive agreement,’ Blinken told reporters in Seoul... ‘It's our hope that the DPRK will be inspired by that example,’ said Blinken… ‘If a country, even one with which we've had the most profound differences, is prepared to engage seriously and credibly in answering the demands of the international community, we are also prepared to engage,’ Blinken said.” http://reut.rs/23I2Flh

Tweet - @james_acton32: Public gloating by US officials over the failure of North Korea's Musadan IRBM launch is a Bad Idea. http://abcn.ws/1SegH5F

Quick Hits:

--“Faith still strong in Iran nuclear deal,” by Christina Pazzanese for the Harvard Gazette. http://bit.ly/1S8eYzO

--“Video Explores The Ghost Fleet Of Warships Sunk By Nuclear Weapons In The Pacific,” by Robin Andrews for IFLScience. http://bit.ly/1U2YMkF

--“From Flint’s Children to Nuclear Weapons, Funding Our Nation’s Priorities,” by Robert Dodge for CounterPunch. http://bit.ly/23THfhR

--“Do the Numbers Add Up for the New B-21 Bomber?” by Martin Matishak for The Fiscal Times. http://bit.ly/23I5fb4

--“South Korea says North is preparing for 5th nuclear test,” by Hyung-Jin Kim for The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1U4UysQ

--“US researchers see more signs NKorea is producing plutonium,” by Matthew Pennington for the AP. http://wapo.st/1VzLPAF

--“Tribeca: 'Command and Control' Filmmakers Raise Alarm About Dangers of Accidents From Nuclear Weapons,” by Gregg Kilday for The Hollywood Reporter. http://bit.ly/1XDPQBq

--“It's Time to Outlaw Nuclear Weapons,” by Tom Sauer for The National Interest. http://bit.ly/1VzJtBH

Events:

--“U.S. Policy Directions in Limiting Enrichment and Processing,” with Thomas Countryman, assistant secretary of state; Edward McGinnis, deputy assistant secretary of energy; Robert Galluci, Georgetown University; and Sharon Squassoni, Center for Strategic and International Studies. April 21 from 1:00 to 3:00 p.m. at CSIS, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP by email. http://bit.ly/1MpZgQr

--World premiere of the bomb at the Tribeca Film Festival. April 23 and 24 at 7:00 p.m. and 10:00 p.m., Gotham Hall, 1356 Broadway, New York. Tickets available online. http://bit.ly/1RsGbK1

--“What We Talk About When We Talk About the Bomb,” discussing nuclear weapons with Michael Douglas, Eric Schlosser, Emma Belcher, Joe Cirincione, Robert Kenner, and Smriti Keshari. April 23 at 5:00 p.m. at SVA Theater 2 Beatrice, 333 W 23rd St, New York, NY 10011. Tickets available online. http://bit.ly/1WnDYVR

--“Nuclear Weapons: Iraq, Iran and Beyond,” with Joe Cirincione, Ploughshares Fund, and Valerie Plame, former career covert CIA operations officer. April 25 at 3:00 p.m. at the University of Washington, Husky Union Building, Room 214, Seattle. http://bit.ly/1Ml5MYC

--“Missile Defense and Deterrent Issues Facing NATO and Europe,” with Tom Karako, Center for Strategic and International Studies; and James Acton, Carnegie Endowment. April 27 from 8:00 to 9:00 a.m. at the Capitol Hill Club, 300 First St. SE, Washington. RSVP online. http://conta.cc/25ULZFH

--“U.S. Nuclear Policy Post-2016 Conference,” with 12 speakers. May 5 from 9:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1S8a4Tz

Dessert:

Set phasers to irradiate - Super Critical, a podcast focused on nuclear issues, takes on Star Trek. “In this episode, we boldly overanalyzed what no one had deemed necessary to overanalyze before: the nuclear nonsense in the acclaimed Star Trek episode “The City on the Edge of Forever.” How close was Nazi Germany to actually building an atomic bomb? Could one person convince America to stay out of WWII? Will Captain James T. Kirk ever catch a break in his love life?” http://bit.ly/22L5xbf