North Korea Postures with Threat of Nuclear Test, Rocket Launches

On the radar: Test of “a higher level”; Dropping Trident tempo; N. Korea’s in-house rocketry; Sen. Kerry on Iran; Keeping or scrapping ICBMs; and Inside the silos.

January 24, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Provocations from the peninsula - North Korea announced that it will conduct a third nuclear test “of higher level” and launch long-range rockets, which the country says will be “targeted against the US.”

--Choe Sang-Hun of the The New York Times suggests the reference to a “higher level” test may indicate the it is intended to display North Korea’s advancements in uranium-fueled nuclear weapons. Full story here. http://owl.li/h5W0n

Tweet - @chicoharlan: N. #Korea's reference to nuclear test comes in a sentence so twisted and un-diagramable, it's too long for twitter. http://t.co/8AQmZZ8Q

Test prep - "North Korea has completed technical preparations for a nuclear test. If [North Korean leader] Kim Jong-un makes a political decision, the North can conduct a nuclear test in a few days," suggests a South Korean intelligence source.Kim Eun-jung of the Yonhap News Agency has the details. http://owl.li/h5VS2

Tweet - @FitzpatrickIISS: So, because the UNSC condemned its rocket launches as not purely peaceful, #NKorea threatens to use rockets for non-peaceful purposes.

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Trident debate - Lord Des Browne, former defence secretary, is set to speak before the House of Lords today and suggest the UK change its nuclear posture. “The time is now right, in my view, to change our posture and to step down from continuous at sea deterrence...This would demonstrate that nuclear weapons played less and less of a role in our national security strategy,” Lord Browne is expected to say.

--”If it abandoned round the clock deterrence, the UK might need only three, or even two, submarines to replace the current fleet of four. It might also be able to delay the decision to build a new fleet until well after 2016,” reports James Blitz for the Financial Times. http://on.ft.com/Unt2aV

Kerry remarks - Excerpt: “Given our extraordinary interest in non-proliferation, we must resolve the questions surrounding Iran's nuclear program. The President has made it definitive--we will do what we must to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon,” said Sen. John Kerry in his written remarks for his confirmation hearing. Full remarks here. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/SH0OIG

Made in the DPRK - South Korean experts recovered and analyzed debris from North Korea’s recent rocket launch, and will issue a report soon. Jeffrey Lewis at Arms Control Wonk previews the early findings, which suggest North Korea is improving its own ability to produce aluminum alloy for rockets and is getting better at reconfiguring/producing rocket engines in-house. http://bit.ly/WWLiVn

Podcast - “Deciphering North Korea's New Year's Address: The Real Road Ahead” an interview with John Park for the Havard Kennedy School “PolicyCast.” http://bit.ly/10CChU6

Keeping ICBMs - The Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) fleet is getting “long in the tooth” at 40 years old, even with its many recent refurbishments. If the Air Force goes forward with replacing them, as it has signaled, it will face budgetary, bureaucratic, and political hurdles. Former ICBM launch officer Matthew Vanderschuere argues it’s worth the effort to keep the nuclear triad. For Battleland. http://ti.me/UZiuxV

Scrapping ICBMs - The next, practical step in US-Russia arms control should be the elimination of silo-based ICBMs, argues Ron Rosenbaum in Slate. Tagline: “Minuteman missiles in remote silos are a thermonuclear accident waiting to happen.” http://slate.me/UnyrPp

Question - “Is There Anything Left To Sanction in North Korea?” by Brian Palmer in Slate. http://slate.me/TrogLy

Tweet - @Gottemoeller: 8 days left to enter! We want to hear your thoughts on innovation in arms control through open source technology. http://bit.ly/TrmGtb

Events:

--”A Proposal for the Resolution of the Iranian Nuclear Standoff.” Fatemeh Haghighatjoo, Seyed Aliakbar Mousavi, George Perkovich, and Jim Walsh. January 24, 1:00-2:30 p.m. @ the Woodrow Wilson Center. http://owl.li/h5LOl

--”Prospects for a Shift in U.S. Policy Towards North Korea.” Amb. Christopher R. Hill and Phillip Yun. January 24, 6:30-8:00 p.m. @ Johns Hopkins SAIS. http://owl.li/h5MfT

--”Revitalizing the National Security Labs: Beyond the Nuclear Deterrent.” Elizabeth Turpen. January 29, 9:00-10:30 a.m. @ the Elliott School of International Affairs. http://owl.li/h5MG0

--Confirmation hearing on the nomination of former Sen. Chuck Hagel. January 31, 9:30 a.m. @ Dirksen Senate Office Building, Room SD-G50. http://owl.li/h5Njc

Dessert:

Inside the silos - “Detailed Photos of Cold War Missile Sites: Opposing Superpowers, Same Terror” by Pete Brook in Wired. http://bit.ly/V9GQTK

Nerd comic - Comparing the fuel energy density of sugar and uranium, without using log scale. By XKCD. http://xkcd.com/1162/